2008 Primaries Thread 3: The Rejecting and Denouncening

http://thenithitme.net/images/youmethem_poster.jpg

what can you even say to that xposts

That the reverend may have some kind of kinship with Roger Staubach or maybe even Ailes?

Jonesville sure sounds a lot like Jonestown.

Hummmm

Are they brothers?

JONESVILLE CHURCH OF GOD, 623 FOREST ST, (864)-674-0883

HUMM

Story made the front page of drudge, which is how i found it.

http://www.pitchforkmedia.com/page/news/50106-arcade-fire-plan-obama-shows-with-superchunk

That makes me want to not vote for Obama.

obama fans dont answer the phone on a weekend

-- deej, Tuesday, April 22, 2008 4:16 PM (26 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

too busy feeling embittered over guns and religion.

-- Alfred, Lord Sotosyn, Tuesday, April 22, 2008 4:18 PM (24 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

TOO BUSY BIG PIMPIN

The interview with Pastor Byrd is highly enlightening (it's obvious someone sent him one of the crap emails that have been going around, because he clearly hasn't done any research of his own).

That makes me want to not vote for Obama.

narcissism-of-small-differences strikes agane oh noes!

Jesus. So where would one get tickets for these NC Obama shows?!??

I'd say start with nc.barackobama.com

EXIT POLL DRAMA 5 PM ET: CLINTON 52, OBAMA 48

drudgesirens

i don't believe exit polls

i dont believe exit polls that end before most people have even gotten out of work

exit polls are the only thing left that i believe in this crazy mixed up world

after 04 never again

what numbers are we expecting guys

i'm calling 53-47 for clinton

I'll guess Hillary wins PA by 8, Obama wins the other states

fox exits sez lots of ppl decided in the last couple days
zogby polls showed a break towards clinton the last couple days

that could be so so for obama

really its hard for her to come out with a 'win' here in the real sense

i'm calling clinton by 11

60-20-20 ron paul-hillary-obama

ron paul's not on the ballot he probably can't crack 40% on write-ins, be realistic dude

i'm calling clinton by 11

-- ^@^, Tuesday, April 22, 2008 4:53 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Link

ugh that would be ugh

obama's been calling "6-10%" in interviews right? considering how the expectations game usually works that would imply he expects to do even better than that but i doubt it

haha yeah max come on, ron paul will at best break 30%

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1734157,00.html

A quarter had household family income of more than $100,000 last year and about as many reported having a postgraduate degree.

I say Clinton by 8, and not enough attention will be paid to exactly how much of her early double-digit lead she blew.

worst case scen: more 'Rocky' refs

worst case scen: 'hoosier' refs

i wish that wasn't a genuine possibility

hill as hackman AND hershey, bill as dennis hopper, gibson/steph as jimmy chitwood.

maybe i'm just pessimistic, but i'm thinking an 11 or 12 point clinton win. my prediction isn't really based on a lot, but there's a few things that are making me think this won't be as close as some people are hopeful for:

1. the general assumpton that movement has been toward clinton in the past few days
2. obama had a seriously shitty run in the press for basically the entire past 6 weeks, minus hilz' bosnia lie (i know this stuff didn't hurt him overall in nation-wide polls, but in PA the rapid obama gap-closing seemed to hit a ceiling a bit, and didn't happen quite as rapidly as, say, in texas, where i think an extra week of campaigning could have put obama over the top)
3. the winners of past primaries/caucuses this year have generally seemed to win by larger margins than polls predicted. i'm sure there are many counter-examples to this, though.

i hope i'm wrong, though, and that obama's able to bring a much tighter result.

if that is the case then thats some realllly bad pre-vote expectation setting by obama

Two-thirds of Pennsylvania voters in preliminary exit poll results say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly; fewer, but still about half, also say Obama unfairly attacked Clinton.

exit poll data - no final numbers but just demographic breakdowns (from daily kos):

Seniors
PA: 61C, 38O
OH: 69C, 28O

White male:
PA: 55C, 45O
OH: 58C, 39O

Blacks
PA: 8C, 92O
OH: 13C, 87O

College Graduates
PA: 46C, 54O
OH: 47C, 51O

Union Household
PA: 58C, 42O
OH: 55C, 45O

Under $50,000
PA: 55C, 45O
OH: 56C, 42O

Urban votes
PA: 31C, 69O
OH: 45C, 55O

Black
PA: 14% of vote
OH: 18% of vote

College Grad
PA: 45% of vote
OH: 38% of vote

Under $50,000
PA: 55% of vote
OH: 46% of vote

Women
PA: 60% of vote
OH: 59% of vote

Urban vs. Rural
PA: City 27%, Suburbs 52%, Rural 21%
OH: City 26%, Suburbs 63%, Rural 11%

Seniors
PA: 27% of vote
OH: 14% of vote

Under 29
PA: 10% of vote
OH: 27% of vote

intersting

I've had a few glasses of wine. Let's get started!

even if she wins by 15 points, she gonna lose Indiana, and it'll be over then. I don't see what's so 'line in the sand' about this primary.

This interactive map on the front page of the NY Times is helpful.

intersting

Beer track/wine track.

Fox, NBC, Politico call it for Paul.

Wow -- HRC totally cleaned him in the western counties.

8:41 p.m. | Uh-Oh, Left Out: One other tidbit from Pa. elections officials: They say a lot of people who are independents have been showing up, thinking they could vote in the Democratic contest. Too bad they weren’t paying attention earlier. As Caucus readers know, you have to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the party’s primary. That shuts off a stream of voters who have been helpful to Mr. Obama in other states. Their absence tonight could obviously hurt him.

8 p.m. | Polls Are Closing Suburban Montgomery County won’t have its results until at least 10 p.m., we just learned from election officials. This is crucial because Montgomery is the third biggest county in the state, and results will be meaningless without Montgomery, which is perceived as tilting toward Mr. Obama.

http://i22.tinypic.com/i2ilae.jpghttp://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/ClintonWins.jpghttp://i22.tinypic.com/i2ilae.jpg

Should I be surprised that Hillary is winning Allegheny Co.?

lol at Ed Rendell saying, "JFK wrote a book called Profiles in Courage" to make the usual tired analogy (and as if JFK had anything do with it).