2008 Primaries Thread 3: The Rejecting and Denouncening

exit poll data - no final numbers but just demographic breakdowns (from daily kos):

Seniors
PA: 61C, 38O
OH: 69C, 28O

White male:
PA: 55C, 45O
OH: 58C, 39O

Blacks
PA: 8C, 92O
OH: 13C, 87O

College Graduates
PA: 46C, 54O
OH: 47C, 51O

Union Household
PA: 58C, 42O
OH: 55C, 45O

Under $50,000
PA: 55C, 45O
OH: 56C, 42O

Urban votes
PA: 31C, 69O
OH: 45C, 55O

Black
PA: 14% of vote
OH: 18% of vote

College Grad
PA: 45% of vote
OH: 38% of vote

Under $50,000
PA: 55% of vote
OH: 46% of vote

Women
PA: 60% of vote
OH: 59% of vote

Urban vs. Rural
PA: City 27%, Suburbs 52%, Rural 21%
OH: City 26%, Suburbs 63%, Rural 11%

Seniors
PA: 27% of vote
OH: 14% of vote

Under 29
PA: 10% of vote
OH: 27% of vote

intersting

I've had a few glasses of wine. Let's get started!

even if she wins by 15 points, she gonna lose Indiana, and it'll be over then. I don't see what's so 'line in the sand' about this primary.

This interactive map on the front page of the NY Times is helpful.

intersting

Beer track/wine track.

Fox, NBC, Politico call it for Paul.

Wow -- HRC totally cleaned him in the western counties.

8:41 p.m. | Uh-Oh, Left Out: One other tidbit from Pa. elections officials: They say a lot of people who are independents have been showing up, thinking they could vote in the Democratic contest. Too bad they weren’t paying attention earlier. As Caucus readers know, you have to be registered as a Democrat to vote in the party’s primary. That shuts off a stream of voters who have been helpful to Mr. Obama in other states. Their absence tonight could obviously hurt him.

8 p.m. | Polls Are Closing Suburban Montgomery County won’t have its results until at least 10 p.m., we just learned from election officials. This is crucial because Montgomery is the third biggest county in the state, and results will be meaningless without Montgomery, which is perceived as tilting toward Mr. Obama.

http://i22.tinypic.com/i2ilae.jpghttp://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/ClintonWins.jpghttp://i22.tinypic.com/i2ilae.jpg

Should I be surprised that Hillary is winning Allegheny Co.?

lol at Ed Rendell saying, "JFK wrote a book called Profiles in Courage" to make the usual tired analogy (and as if JFK had anything do with it).

Does the "comeback" narrative lose any of its potency since we see it coming in the metanarrative tea leaves weeks in advance?

it's a "comeback" when HRC, Bill, and Chelsea walk onstage as if it were 1996.

so it's not just me, right? the audience does sound insane/paid for?

okay so like she was supposed to win by like 20 points originally, but now she'll win by less than 10 and that's a big "comeback"?

lol if her lead holds @ 7-9% its exactly a stalemate - and were only closer to resolution because one more contest is out of the way

this reminds me of the fucking vikings, like season when we would start out like 7-2, then totally meltdown midseason....scrap together a few late season wins and be one game away from making the playoffs at 9-7 and our coaches would crow about all the "guts" it took to get back in it.

i don't want the president to be like the minnesota vikings.

I want the president to be like the Norse Vikings.

lol @ thanking john mellancamp

yikes CNN has it at 10 points now

drudge too

disappointing

ugh why cant he close the fucking deal

who are these people who all agree obama will be the eventual nominee but feel the need to relentlessly prolong the process

remember we'll need these people in November, so just stay cool

Daily Kos (w/ dels):

85% precincts reporting.
Vote% Dels

Clinton 55 40
Obama 45 37

So delegate wise, Hillary hardly wins any.

ugh why cant he close the fucking deal

-- deej, Wednesday, 23 April 2008 03:11 (1 minute ago) Link

stop with the clinton talking points plz

yah goalposts moved always

ehhh goalposts were moved by obama himself when he predicted 6-8 pts

fuck a clinton talking point, but it's a legitmate concern, his relative lack of support among key dem voting blocs.

he won 45 percent of white males. I think that's a pretty big chunk of support. It's not like she's totally blowing him out, and it's not like just because they vote for Clinton in the primary they're going to vote for McCain in the general...

unfortunately, i think the pivot from hil to mccain will be sorta easy for some of these folks : /

lack of support relative to the wife of a really popular ex-president, not to an old warmonger. That's not something to worry about.

xpost disagree

i hope i'm completely wrong/ overly pessimistic

8 p.m. | Polls Are Closing Suburban Montgomery County won’t have its results until at least 10 p.m., we just learned from election officials. This is crucial because Montgomery is the third biggest county in the state, and results will be meaningless without Montgomery, which is perceived as tilting toward Mr. Obama.

-- deej, Tuesday, April 22, 2008 8:51 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Link

only 39% reported so far, although its 51/49 in favor of clinton atm

All this to erode Barack's lead by uh seven delegates?

how did barack get such a big delegate lead anyway.

by killing her in a lot of the smaller states he won, but staying close enough in the big states he lost to win a lot of delegates. if the democrats lose this year, look for a push to change the proportional allocation of delegates. in a winner-take-all system hillary would have sewn up the nomination at ohio and texas, if not before. t/s: a more truly democratic process vs. a process that gives you a nominee faster.

I'm getting reports that the margin is 8.6 per cent not 10 per cent.

Attention
Interest
Decision
Action

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ has 8.5% as the margin but as any fool knows it's what gets reported on the night and in the morning papers that matters.

this reminds me of the fucking vikings, like season when we would start out like 7-2, then totally meltdown midseason....scrap together a few late season wins and be one game away from making the playoffs at 9-7 and our coaches would crow about all the "guts" it took to get back in it.

i don't want the president to be like the minnesota vikings.

m@tt this is so beautiful

Clinton/Zygi Wilf 08

Interesting comment on TPM re polls showing that roughly half of PA Hillary voters would vote for McCain in the GE if Obama was the candidate:

Jesus Greg, this poll has always been utter horseshit - let me explain why.. See, Obama supporters, feeling that he will be the nominee eventually, feel more generous about saying that they would support Clinton if it came down to that. Hillary supporters, knowing that her chances of becoming the democratic nominee are slimmer than Amy Winehouse's silhouette - are angrier, and express that in that nonsensical poll.

I think that's pretty OTM.

yah those people will come around

Hillary supporters, knowing that her chances of becoming the democratic nominee are slimmer than Amy Winehouse's silhouette

nice bit of confused gender-bashing there

There was an exit poll in which 14% of voters said race was an issue in their voting preference. So there's a stack of voters right there who aren't going to vote for Obama in the GE.