2008 Primaries Thread 2: THE QUICKENING

On another front, while I think McCain will be the favorite in a GE with Obama, I think it's interesting that the early line of attack he's taking is just like the one that HRC is employing, unsuccessfully ("My experience allows me to achieve change, not just talk about it").

McCain v. Obama would be the biggest age-gap in a GE contest ever.

not even the 1932 shirley temple/will rogers match?

Democratic Races
Reporting
1st Place
2nd Place

DC 98%

Obama 75%
Clinton 24%

MD 67%

Obama 60%
Clinton 37%

VA 99%

Obama 64%
Clinton 35%

Jesus, he really DID get 3-1 in DC

Whereas:

Republican Races
Reporting
1st Place
2nd Place

DC 98%

McCain 68%
Huckabee 17%

MD 67%

McCain 55%
Huckabee 30%

VA 99%

McCain 50%
Huckabee 41%

The Huck ain't getting much traction there...

Yeah, but that's more like a GOP attempt to "Swift Boat" Obama, no? I'm talking more about base-level, frenzied skinhead-ish craziness.

as if there's a difference any more?!?

Great headlines of all time - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/mccain

haha, like Bob Dole in a Diet pepsi commercial

meanwhile, idiot from RedState whining about why the GOP don't support the RWA follower blogs the same way the democrats do their own supporters:

Erick Erickson, editor of the popular conservative megablog RedState, conceded that progressives currently enjoy an advantage over conservatives online—though he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

Welfare bloggers havin' abortions for fun.

66
All streams flow to the sea
because it is lower than they are.
Humility gives it its power.

If you want to govern the people,
you must place yourself below them.
If you want to lead the people,
you must learn how to follow them.

The Master is above the people,
and no one feels oppressed.
She goes ahead of the people,
and no one feels manipulated.
The whole world is grateful to her.
Because she competes with no one,
no one can compete with her.

McCain on Obama: ''That's not hope . . . . . . . . that's a platitude.''

BOOM! PRINT IT ON A T-SHIRT.

Does a universal health care plan really require 100% buy-in to generate the $$$ necessary to leverage a manageable price?

i think the main line of thinking is that once you allow any kind of opt-out you open the door to more opt-outs in the future and to a ghettoization of govt-funded health care

there is also the fact that young, healthy people will often choose not to get health insurance and if you continue to allow this it drives up premiums for everyone since your pool is composed of more old and sick people

Erick Erickson, editor of the popular conservative megablog RedState, conceded that progressives currently enjoy an advantage over conservatives online—though he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

No - the time we spend not raising kids and not working so we can blog is more than equalled by the time conservatives save driving their giant SUVs, instead of utilizing mass transit. and ignoring the homeless or otherwise underprivileged. Right? Right?

that's not hope...
http://soer.justice.tas.gov.au/2003/image/559/ilw/p-platypus_m.jpg

jesus, these people are very far down the rabbit hole

i know obama has an answer about young healthy people but i can't remember what it is now

a sex worker looks at who's really the pimp around here: bill clinton, the big pimp lobster of hope

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/tracy_quan/2008/02/whos_pimping_who.html

john mccain talkslooks like the real seymour skinnersawyer

-- m bison, Wednesday, 13 February 2008 03:08 (38 minutes ago)

FIXED

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021208DailyUpdateGraph2.gif

Love these Gallup polls you've been posting. They're so aesthetically pleasing.

They really are!

the little edwards line is so sad

so is anyone else kinda psyched to see what sort of low-down desperate shit the clinton camp is gonna come up w/to try and save their asses?

I'm interested. But again, she isn't out of it. And I think that if Obama tries to make his own 'inevitability' case in a hamfisted way, it could cost him sometime soon.

The voters don't seem to like these self-annointments.

i'm interested to see how they'll spin it when questioned about obama's victory among their conventionally 'strong' demographics in VA

i kind of think that they'll just do their best and bow out with class, i don't think they want to tarnish their legacy more. they might put up a fight about the florida delegates, but it might not matter by then anyway

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080213/i/r1797012930.jpg

i really don't understand how the clinton camp expects to secure voter support in a general election across all the states obama has won if they continue to belittle the contests they lose and and explain them away with exit poll data. and total ad buy sums. and the unfairness of the caucus system. etc. ad nauseam.

lol bow out w/class? these are cliiiiiintons remember.

she isn't out of it.

as far as the math goes she'll have to have blowout wins in ohio and texas to retake the delegate lead. maybe shes not out of it but she is in a very tight spot. everythings pointing toward obama wins in wisconsin and hawaii and then two weeks of nothing but the media speculating on how many of her super delegates will defect. yikes!

btw remember, by clintonian logic --> if you're working class, then you're likely to be a clinton supporter. unless you're black and working class, in which case, you're just black.

xposts to the obama camp making the inevitability argument now. i agree i was a bit thrown off when i read that, thinking, is this really what they want to be saying right now?

i'm not sure it's the best thing to be saying at this moment, but who knows? obama has a big winning streak going on that definitely demands a lot more attention than some on the more cautious side of things might want to give. the obama camp clearly wants to step up the pressure that he's a winning candidate.

otoh, i'm still anxious about a hillary comeback. right now things slightly resemble the situation after iowa - a lot of the press saying "hillary's done, let's get this shit over with, etc." but then she came back.

i think the ohio/texas gamble is seriously risky, but i wouldn't be surprised if she pulls off a narrow win in both states. she'll obviously then make a big, blown-up case about it that might be a little difficult to contend with. it'll at least prolong the fight for a while.

i really don't understand how the clinton camp expects to secure voter support in a general election across all the states obama has won if they continue to belittle the contests they lose and and explain them away with exit poll data.

seriously.

But I worry that it'll also allow the journalistic hacks who follow HRC the right amount of time for their Hills-is-back stories to influence outcomes.

http://i72.photobucket.com/albums/i191/fluxion23/hillary-clearing-brush.jpg

he attributed it to an asymmetry in free time, since conservatives "have families because we don't abort our kids, and we have jobs because we believe in capitalism."

lol XD

oooh nice:

Puerto Rico Governor to Endorse Obama

(i doubt puerto rico will come into play, but this can't hurt in trying to appeal to some latino voters)

otoh, i'm still anxious about a hillary comeback. right now things slightly resemble the situation after iowa - a lot of the press saying "hillary's done, let's get this shit over with, etc." but then she came back.

a couple differences between then and now: obama has built up a much more impressive resume than winning just the one barely populated state and polling well in the other barely populated state - and clinton needs to do more than eek out a win in the second barely populated state, she needs to win big in two big states. then it was all abt the mo - now its abt the mo and the math.

although that comeback in nh has prevented the press from calling this thing. if they hadnt been burned the first time everyone would be writing her obituary right now.

Isn't she 17 points ahead in Ohio or something?

yah shes been way up everywhere 3 week out - then obama comes to town.

http://i32.tinypic.com/efwq9.jpg

then it was all abt the mo - now its abt the mo and the math.

yea this is true.

the mo and the math.

Sounds like the new Clipse album.

I'm not gonna tell Penn Jillette's joke.

Isn't she 17 points ahead in Ohio or something?

take a look at this: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0208/About_that_Ohio_poll.html

not that it means clinton doesn't have an edge (right now i'm sure she's still ahead), but it might suggest that the edge isn't quite as large as 17 points.

apparently some of the data in the ohio poll relies on figures that haven't really matched up to what's been happening so far in other states (esp. re: independent turnout, black support for obama, etc.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzGbj_ERlJ0

official clinton ad up in wisconsin, pushing the "if-he's-so-great-why-won't-he-debate-hillary" argument

lol

the ad shows the things to come. i think we'll see the clinton camp getting a lot more negative over the next few weeks

Uh, from "Republicans for Obama":

OBAMA SAID OBAMICANS!!
Tue, 02/12/2008 - 11:56pm — SandiLincoln

Tonight, Feb 12, during his speech in Madison, Wisconsin, Obama used the word Obamicans! YOU GUYS, we are an actual demographic and we need to be so proud of ourselves and our candidate, Senator Barack Obama, because we epidomize change. Changing party's, changing our mind set, and changing our world. YOU GUYS ROCK!

OBAMA 08~We are the ones we were waiting for!

epidomize.