Democratic (Party) Direction

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so you're willing to believe that voting for Perot meant there's no way you were going to vote for Clinton, but completely unwilling to believe that voting for Perot meant there's no way you were going to vote for Bush or Dole. nice 'logic'. has it occurred to you that, even if you ignore the fact that 100% of Perot voters could have voted for Dole and he still would have lost, it's possible that every Perot or other third party voter would have stayed home if there were 2 candidates? at which point Clinton would have won 54.7-45.3?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:29 (eighteen years ago) link

I haven't made any such claims. All I pointed out was the correct margin of victory for Clinton against other candidates in '96. I'm not dealing in conjecture or speculation about what people "might have" done.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:32 (eighteen years ago) link

In other words, whose "centrism" are you talking about?

This is what is kind of confusing me.

Rahmneb, are you saying that Democrats need to claim ownership of the center and then define later what the center is? Or do Democrats claim ownership of centrist concepts and by default claim the center?

And do they claim the center by crying BUSHCO IS THE MOST EXTREME ADMINSITRATION EVAH by default or does the party just claim the center and then let the electorate figger out how EXTREMIST Bushco is?

don weiner (don weiner), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:34 (eighteen years ago) link

Gab- I don't think he's made that claim. I think it's fair to say that a lot of potential Clinton votes went to Perot and at the same time safely conclude that Perot cost Bush (and maybe Dole) the election.

xpost

TRG (TRG), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:35 (eighteen years ago) link

ok, i give. shakey, i don't have a fucking clue what you're saying. i first read you (wrongly) as saying that 'Kerry did better than Clinton'. now, the only reading i can come up with is that you've reached the conclusion that Bill Clinton didn't run far enough to the left because he didn't win by as much as the far-right-wing George W. Bush.

I think it's fair to say that a lot of potential Clinton votes went to Perot and at the same time safely conclude that Perot cost Bush (and maybe Dole) the election.

really? in 96? you want to explain with the numbers?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:43 (eighteen years ago) link

this whole "who might people have voted for" speculation is completely beside the point. The point is that an actual vote cast for Perot WAS NOT A VOTE FOR CLINTON. And Clinton's actual margin of victory in both elections was super-tiny - in '96 is what by a tenth of a percentage point, and in '92 he didn't even get a plurality of the vote at all. These are the facts. These are how people actually voted. Speculation is not necessary. "Centrism" is not a proven strategy for victory.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:43 (eighteen years ago) link

you're being incoherent. first you say speculation is unnecessary. then you deem Clinton's "actual margin of victory" in 96 to be the margin by which Clinton votes exceeded Dole plus Perot votes, thus assuming that all Perot voters would have voted for Dole. if you want to have a coherent argument, you have to argue that Clinton would have lost both times because in neither case did he get 50%. you also have to completely ignore the existence of the electoral college.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:48 (eighteen years ago) link

in plain English, your prized Democratic centrism has never appealed to a plurality of the American public, and has only resulted in electoral successes when there were already other (rather large) mitigating factors at work.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:49 (eighteen years ago) link

there's none of this "would have" bullshit! A vote for Perot is not a vote for Clinton OR Dole OR Bush, its a vote for Perot!! Why is this so hard to understand.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:50 (eighteen years ago) link

haha, in plain english, you have no response to actual numbers

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:50 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm the one dealing in actual numbers, your the one with the "what if" scenarios.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:53 (eighteen years ago) link

Well, could we see some numbers for the non-centrist Democratic presidential candidates, assuming there have been any? What kind of numbers did McGovern pull down? Never mind, I looked it up: 38%.

o. nate (onate), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:55 (eighteen years ago) link

Except that centrism is a proven strategy for percentage-victory because Clinton still won the percentage?? I mean whether it is by .1% or by 100%, he still won the percentage majority of votes??? Gabbneb's right, you aren't making any sense.

Allyzay Rofflesberger (allyzay), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:55 (eighteen years ago) link

but Clinton only won those margins because Perot was there to upset the electorate!

Back to square one...

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:59 (eighteen years ago) link

if you look at how many people voted for Clinton's centrism - it is not a plurality. Ergo, the majority of American people didn't buy off on it.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 21:59 (eighteen years ago) link

Actually reading about the McGovern campaign gives me hope for the Dems. Suddenly 48% for Kerry doesn't seem so bad! If they seem lost in the woods now, think how lost they were back then.

o. nate (onate), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:02 (eighteen years ago) link

No, Shakey, it's not back to square one, because whether or not Perot stole votes from XYZ, you're not going to gain MORE voters had Perot not run. I'm doing the same thing you are. Here is the percentage of people who voted for X. Here is the percentage of people who DIDN'T vote for X. X is greater than Y here. No matter how you want to spin it!

And yeah, far-leftist-candidates always do fantastic!

Wtf are you seriously talking about?

Allyzay Rofflesberger (allyzay), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:04 (eighteen years ago) link

In '91 more people voted AGAINST Clinton than for him. In '96, the percentage of people that voted for Clinton is only .1% larger than those that voted against him. I dunno how many more times I can repeat these obvious facts before you numbskulls get that Clinton's centrism did not impress >50% of the voting populace in either election. This would seem to rather clearly indicate that this brand of centrism is not really all that popular.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:09 (eighteen years ago) link

"In '91" should be "in '92" duh.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:09 (eighteen years ago) link

but y'know what I give up, you can have your useless, lost, ineffectual party. Enjoy!

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:10 (eighteen years ago) link

I think part of the problem is that we use words like 'centrist' and 'far-left' and assume that they're clearly defined positions, and we assume that the electorate buys these notions as well. Like I said before, you find numerous examples in the last election alone of things like Feingold winning by a landslide, Kerry winning by a sliver in WI. Ohio went to Bush yet it also elected 'far-left' reps like Kaptur and Kucinich. I do give people credit for thinking beyond terms like 'centrist,' 'far-right,' 'far-left' etc. Plenty of people (and how about people that don't vote that could be brought on board?) are willing to listen to candidates espouse 'far-left' positions like, say, corporate responsibility, bringing the troops home, etc. The point was made previously, it's more important that the candidate clearly stand for something - call that 'far-left' if you will, though 'far-left' to me will always mean SWP, IWW, etc.

TRG (TRG), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:16 (eighteen years ago) link

Nobody in the fucking world besides you claimed that PEOPLE MUST ALWAYS GET A MAJORITY, NOT A PLURALITY, OF VOTES before the idea that "centrism (whatever it is at the time) is probably for best" becomes valid. Who the hell would use that as a marker for anything? The important thing is getting the most votes, right? Not impressing the entire world with your credentials.

xpost that's the thing, it'd be nice if SOMEONE on this thread would define their definitions of far this or far that or blah blah blah cos I'm not really sure how quite a few of the republicans being bandied around as democrat nemesises don't qualify as "centrist" in some way.

Allyzay Rofflesberger (allyzay), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:19 (eighteen years ago) link

Also let's get one fucking thing straight here, you retard, I am not defending Clinton's brand of centrism one bit. I am instead pointing out that you are TALKING IN CIRCLES, NOT MAKING A SINGLE FUCKING POINT OR ESPOUSING ONE (1) IDEA BESIDES "GABBNEB IS WRONG." So, I guess you're a bit more of a centrist modern Democrat than you thought ha ha ha.

Allyzay Rofflesberger (allyzay), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:20 (eighteen years ago) link

xpost I agree. "Centrist" is a meaningless term -- Dems should find ways of making their positions sound reasonable and centrist, "define" the center, etc.

But I wouldn't count to heavily on bringing non-voters on board. It's a nice bonus, and something to work hard on for the long term, but in any given election it seems to be a relatively minor factor unless you're running Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Abbadavid Berman (Hurting), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:21 (eighteen years ago) link

I don't see why the popular vote keeps getting used in these presidential arguements. Was the Clinton campaign really gunning for some sort of landslide victory in 1992?

At any rate, he could've given up Colorado, Nevada, Louisiana, Georgia, AND Ohio to Bush and still would've won the election.

Pleasant Plains /// (Pleasant Plains ///), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:23 (eighteen years ago) link

I'm the one dealing in actual numbers, your the one with the "what if" scenarios.

no, you're the one with the 'what if' scenarios that involve something other than Clinton winning 96 by 8.5% of the vote.

and o. nate raises an interesting point. are Dem popular vote percentages directly proportional to moderation?

Truman - 50%
Stevenson '52 - 44%
Stevenson '56 - 42%
Kennedy - 50%
Johnson - 61%
Humphrey - 43%
McGovern - 38%
Carter '76 - 51%
Carter '80 - 41%
Mondale - 41%
Dukakis - 46%
Clinton 92 - 43%
Clinton 96 - 49%
Gore - 48%
Kerry - 48%

I'd say no. But they do seem pretty proportional to how comparatively Southern the Dem ticket was.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:24 (eighteen years ago) link

Pleasant Plains otm - urban voters turning out in droves in blue states to vote against Bush /= Gore or Kerry actually winning the election

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:25 (eighteen years ago) link

In '91 more people voted AGAINST Clinton than for him

so your point is that Clinton would have lost if Perot hadn't run because more people voted for Dole + Perot + Nader + Harry Browne + write-ins than voted for Clinton, never mind that Dole + Perot were not > Clinton (and somehow imagining that the popular vote winner is automatically the EC winner)?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:28 (eighteen years ago) link

i think where democratic strategists trip up is trying to figure out how to be "centrist" in ways that tend to seem half-assed and hokey (suddenly using lots of biblical references, saying "values" a lot). all the polls say liberal democrats are fine on issues. what they've lost control of is the way the whole conversation is framed, this whole idea that republicans are the tough daddies and dems are the soft mommies. i think democrats could come out tomorrow and say they're in favor of torturing children who get caught stealing chewing gum and they'd still be painted as a bunch of pansies.

what they need to do is just start ignoring that shit. define themselves, and say "i don't care what blowhard bullies like bill o'reilly or dick cheney says, those guys are full of shit." right now, they seem so scared of what people say about them, which is a bad position to be in when the opposition controls talk radio and owns its own cable news network.

gypsy mothra (gypsy mothra), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:28 (eighteen years ago) link

"no, you're the one with the 'what if' scenarios that involve something other than Clinton winning 96 by 8.5% of the vote."

again you're counting votes for Perot as votes for Clinton?! why do you keep doing this? Clinton - 49.2%. Dole - 40.7%. Perot - 8.4%. % for Clinton = 49.2. % against Clinton = 49.1%. That is not an 8.5% margin of victory.

*bangs head against wall*

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:28 (eighteen years ago) link

though actually if you take 1950-1996, and assign Clinton 1/3 of Perot votes (and Carter 1/3 of Anderson votes, and Humphrey 1/3 of Wallace votes), Dem numbers do seem pretty proportional to perceived moderation/non-wussiness. it would come out like this...

Stevenson - 44%
Stevenson - 42%
Kennedy - 50%
Johnson - 61%
Humphrey - 47%
McGovern - 38%
Carter - 51%
Carter - 43%
Mondale - 41%
Dukakis - 46%
Clinton - 49%
Clinton - 52%

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:36 (eighteen years ago) link

% against Clinton = 49.1%

no, % against Clinton, following your logic, was 50.77%. but you know that if you argue that Clinton actually would have lost, rather than that Clinton actually won by a tiny percentage, your argument would fall apart under its own weight.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:37 (eighteen years ago) link

what are you talking about? 40.7 + 8.4 = 49.1. What is it with you and all these made-up numbers?

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:38 (eighteen years ago) link

these 'made-up numbers' are the actual percentages of people who voted for someone other than Clinton.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:39 (eighteen years ago) link

which, by your logic, is 'against Clinton'

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:40 (eighteen years ago) link

never mind that every single Perot voter knew that they weren;t helping Dole beat him

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:40 (eighteen years ago) link

just for fun let's look at the GOP numbers (assigning 2/3 of major third parties).

Dewey - 47%
Ike - 55%
Ike - 57%
Nixon - 50%
Goldwater - 38%
Nixon - 48%
Nixon - 61%
Ford - 48%
Reagan - 55%
Reagan - 59%
Bush I - 53%
Bush I - 50%
Dole - 46%
Bush II - 48%
Bush II - 51%

seem pretty proportional to non-wussiness + perceived centrism to me

oh, and look at these numbers and tell me we're losing because we aren't far left enough

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 22:55 (eighteen years ago) link

but again, i think "centrism" and "non-wussiness" are not primarily a matter of issues. bush won 51 percent of the vote last time despite having clearly demonstrated that he was no kind of centrist in terms of ideology. what he had was the image of the "regular guy", or in this case the "regular tough guy." which trumped the actuality of kerry having fought and killed in a war. and creating that image, i think, starts with not letting yourself be pushed around (or at least giving the appearance of such). the bushies take this to an extreme, obviously, but look how it works for them -- instead of ducking and vacillating about whether they're illegally eavesdropping, they just came out and said, "hell yeah we are, and it's not illegal cuz we say so. you pansies!" i'm not suggesting the dems go quite that steroidal, but there are things to learn from it.

gypsy mothra (gypsy mothra), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:01 (eighteen years ago) link

well this thread has served us well.

hstencil (hstencil), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:09 (eighteen years ago) link

bush won 51 percent of the vote last time despite having clearly demonstrated that he was no kind of centrist in terms of ideology

I think Bush has taken more trouble to burnish his centrist credentials than y'all are giving him credit for: boosting federal education spending, giving prescription drug benefits to seniors, nominating minorities to prominent administration positions - none of these are actions that would align him with the stereotypical image of the reactionary right.

o. nate (onate), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:11 (eighteen years ago) link

How can you say that there's anything extreme about Bush okay-ing the warrantless wire-tapping of people's phone conversations with members of a group that have explicitly declared war against America, but not say that Clinton's okaying of warrantless wire-tapping of US citizens who merely had connections with members of organised crime?

On the face of it that would seem to be disgusting partisanship during a time of war. But I'm only going by what I've read on certain blogs. Is there some fundamental difference between the use of executive privilege by Clinton and Bush that I'm not aware of?

slb, Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:14 (eighteen years ago) link

the "regular tough guy."

which is exactly the same thing as centrism + non-wussiness. totally otm.

it's important to be centrist-appearing in policy as well, but it's the personal style and attitudes that stand in for ideology with middle of the road voters that come first.

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:15 (eighteen years ago) link

so, at least as far as presidential votes are concerned, it's a fucking beauty contest.

don weiner (don weiner), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:24 (eighteen years ago) link

hehe -

xpost- ok, well, good luck on election day. May Dem lack of gutsiness or inspiration serve them well.

Back to Perot for a second - he did prove that, yeah, sometimes people want to hear something outside the limited framework of what's deemed acceptable. The Dems would do well to at least take a lesson from his willingness to say things nobody else was at the time. People respond to that.

TRG (TRG), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:30 (eighteen years ago) link

xpost- ok, well, good luck on election day. May Dem lack of gutsiness or inspiration serve them well.

Back to Perot for a second - he did prove that, yeah, sometimes people want to hear something outside the limited framework of what's deemed acceptable. The Dems would do well to at least take a lesson from his willingness to say things nobody else was at the time. People respond to that.

OTM.

If Democrats just went out and told the truth, they'd have a lot easier time getting those who don't typically vote and are disillusioned with the system (about half the country) to make up for the conservative base. Hell, they'd probably pull a few republicans while they're at it. But as long as they choose "safe" candidates over good candidates, fuck it, its tough for me to get behind them (no matter how bad the republican party is).

Alan Conceicao (Alan Conceicao), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:35 (eighteen years ago) link

May Dem lack of gutsiness or inspiration serve them well.

you still don't get it

gabbneb (gabbneb), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:42 (eighteen years ago) link

They can tell the truth all they want, even if their version of the truth is myopic. But that doesen't mean that people will trust them to fix shit.

don weiner (don weiner), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:49 (eighteen years ago) link

you still don't get it

It must be difficult being the bearer of truth when nobody wants to listen. Don't give up though.

TRG (TRG), Thursday, 26 January 2006 23:55 (eighteen years ago) link

I will say this: when 2008 rolls around and the "centrist" Dems are all trying to get the party faithful excited about Hillary and/or Kerry and/or Biden I am going to be crying in my beer (yet again) at the utter stupidity and hopelessness of it all.

Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, 27 January 2006 00:06 (eighteen years ago) link

Feingold winning by a landslide, Kerry winning by a sliver in WI

this is because Feingold is very good at doing exactly what I argue for on this thread - arguing his position to voters in the middle or on the other side in respectful but firm language that reflects conviction that his ideas are right and in the center, but not attacking or being histrionically angry. he would conceivably be my top prez or veep choice (other than the fact that he isn't in an executive position and can't point to many accomplishments) if he weren't twice-divorced and Jewish, which I'm afraid are sufficient for enough voters to say he isn't for the things I'm for.

but the idea that he wins because he's the down-the-line leftist and Kerry isn't is ridiculous. which one of these guys voted for Roberts?

gabbneb (gabbneb), Friday, 27 January 2006 00:07 (eighteen years ago) link


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