2014 in Iraq

The Taliban were at least three times larger in 2001. High estimates for the strength of ISIS are approx 15,000. Low estimates are about 7,000. This contrasts with an Iraqi army of at least 280,000. The Peshmerga could probably get 200,000 together pretty easily.

The lack of willingness of Sunni Iraqis to fight them, with countless reports of soldiers just walking away from their posts when ISIS turn up, can't be separated from the al-Maliki government's unpopularity in those areas. There is plenty of speculation that the Sunni powers will turf them out when they have served their purpose, though, and take control themselves.

None of which is to say that assistance shouldn't be given to the Peshmerga but the political angle also needs to be addressed.

i am having a hard time understanding the scale of ISIS. how do they control so much territory if their numbers are so limited?

As far as bankroll, I have heard Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Also they sell black market oil. As far as territory, idk. I would assume though that the numbers cited are fighters alone, whereas they have other support. I've read isolated reports that they are actually governing in some of the towns they've captured and must have some kind of police capability. Their size is small but their recruitment potential is what I think is new about them.

Their propaganda is also an effective weapon -- it scares people so badly that they just flee, another reason relatively small bands of fighters are so successful.

Nobody is really fighting against them in Sunni areas of Iraq, as far as I can tell. There is also a massive vacuum in Syria they have been able to walk into. They struggle when they come up against solid resistance.

My meager understanding is:

Large areas of uninhabited desert are under their 'control'. They maintain a monopoly of force within the 'controlled' region mostly due to wholesale massacre of potential opponents once an area is captured. Recapturing the 'controlled territory' is not a priority of ISIS opponents, because it is Sunni territory and the ISIS opponents are Kurdish and Shiia. The ISIS main force could be outflanked easily enough I expect, but they don't really care because they are highly mobile and not designed to hold a position.

ShariVari could no doubt shed a better light on this.

@ Hurting 2: Aren't Saudi Arabia and Qatar enemies at the moment? Do you have a link to that. I mean, I can kinda see them supporting ISIS for different reasons, but it would be really ironic after they came to blows over Hamas...

al-Maliki has accused the Saudis and Qatar of funding ISIS. Saudi Arabia has just given $1bn in military aid to Lebanon to fight them, though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-28735641

Maliki to take the President to court for not giving him a third term.

US now directly arming the Peshmerga, which had been avoided for fear of emboldening the independence movement.

it's a good thing we removed saddam and his WMD!

why not let the kurds have their own country? it seems like religious and ethnic minorities would fare better there than in any other part of the region.

The Kurds would like to secede but there are obstacles. good summary here:

http://time.com/3083172/iraq-kurdistan-independence/

The US and Turkey oppose secession but Israel approves:

http://www.tehrantimes.com/world/116763-us-opposed-to-kurdish-secession-from-iraq

This article says money is coming from "wealthy individuals" in the gulf states, not necessarily the states themselves
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/14/america-s-allies-are-funding-isis.html

This article has State Dept officials denying that the Saudi govt has provided funding and also Brookings people saying there's no evidence that any state funds ISIS. They apparently have a lot of money from black market oil and from looting.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iraqs-political-situation-dire-as-maliki-digs-in/2014/08/11/1c70942a-213a-11e4-958c-268a320a60ce_story.html?hpid=z1

Iraq’s president named prominent Shiite politician Haider al-Abadi as the country’s new prime minister Monday, dislodging incumbent Nouri al-Maliki after eight years in office despite a show of force as he clung to power.

President Fouad Massoum called on Abadi, a member of Maliki’s ruling party and currently the deputy speaker of parliament, to form a new government.

Maliki has been standing his ground despite mounting pressure from domestic opponents and the Obama administration for him to step aside. He has been widely blamed for the growth of an insurgency by Sunni Muslim extremists that has ravaged the country.

x-post re $ to ISIS:

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/isis-saudi-arabia-iraq-syria-bandar/373181/

The worry at the time, punctuated by a February meeting between U.S. National Security Adviser Susan Rice and the intelligence chiefs of Turkey, Qatar, Jordan, and others in the region, was that ISIS and al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra had emerged as the preeminent rebel forces in Syria. The governments who took part reportedly committed to cut off ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, and support the FSA instead. But while official support from Qatar and Saudi Arabia appears to have dried up, non-governmental military and financial support may still be flowing from these countries to Islamist groups.

fucking al-nusra

who is more anti-american: ISIS or the GOP?

ugh, i miss the trenchant social commentary thread

are we being greeted as liberators again?

no but Cheney is greeting Obama as a traitor again

obama is a huge traitor! what was he thinking, arming the iraqi insurgents? good thing the GOP is around to straighten this all out

nyt: "The Kurds have begun receiving weapons from outside sources, American officials said on Monday. Although the United States was aware of the weapons deliveries, officials would not comment on the types of arms or on who was providing them."

Turkey is no doubt giving this development some serious side-eye.

no doubt turkey would prefer no kurdistan

That has been the traditional position but Erdogan and Barzani are fairly close these days. There's a strong probability that they still don't want an independent Kurdistan but if it happened and it created a strong ally partially reliant on Turkey, some are saying he might not think it is the worst thing that could happen.

i know that the relationship has made a lot of strides but surely he must be concerned about a kurdish separatist movement in turkey if kurdistan became a reality?

or are you saying that he might be willing to just cede that area?

I am surprised to hear that Erdogan would even entertain the possibility of a kurdish state on their border

No, Turkey would want to keep it. The theory is that Iraqi Kurdistan could be contained within its current borders. I doubt they really want to risk it, but the upside in extending Turkey's informal influence is supposedly a factor the government is considering. Xp

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/08/hillary-clinton-failure-to-help-syrian-rebels-led-to-the-rise-of-isis/375832/

Clinton v. Obama re whether there were moderate rebels in Syria who could have been helped early on, and whose possible success could have affected ISIS. She seems to be staking out a political position for 2016...

such bullshit monday-morning quarterbacking to position herself as sufficiently hawkish, v pukeworthy

like I get it Hillary you are into wars and shit

ok now I can't figure out if Obama is more evil or stupid

(his three predecessors who bombed Iraq, including Mr Hillary, it's a little more clear)

eh I think the idea that we could have armed/financed a coalition of anti-Assad fighters (that *weren't* explicitly jihadist) is p specious

If only we'd asked all the good rebels to stand over to one side and all the bad ones to stand on the other. "Hands up if you're planning to use our weapons for jihad! OK, no weapons for you."

"Are you affiliated with Al-Qaeda, Al-Moderat, or other?"

remember how far being a uber hawk got hillary in 2008? oh yeah second place.

finally we'll have a Thatcher of our own

god it's horrible this woman is the presumed nominee – again.

and Rob Reiner has made sure "there is no one else" this time

I think Hillary can fuck this up as badly as she did last time and Warren or some other dark horse will swoop in and take it form her.

At least I can hope..

Hope was the last election bro

ERBIL, Iraq — A helicopter carrying aid from Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous government to stranded Yazidi refugees in the Sinjar mountains of northern Iraq crashed on Tuesday, killing the pilot and injuring other passengers, including a Yazidi member of Parliament and a New York Times journalist.

from NY Times

http://nation.foxnews.com/2014/08/11/obamas-drive-war-iraq

Yesterday's take, but what will they think today

the quantum theory of obama: he is either a tyrant or an empty suit, depending on how one stages the experiment

tbf the same dynamic was true of dubya

that's true, he was king george and curious george at the same time. sometimes i miss him, at least he presented streamlined evil that was easy to hate. obama is more of a crushing apathy.

obama will be remembered as a great president. bush is the posterboy for everything wrong in the invisible united states caste system. simplistic and binary perhaps but fuck it it's true