the scottish independence referendum

impartial BBC currently speculating on the Queen's opinion

i feeling is that yes will win and that it won't be a marginal victory. my prediction is that yes will win by 56% to 44%.

my*

Other way round I'd say

too close to call, would be "fun"

literal dead heat would be pure joeks

Scottish equiv. of hanging chads - hingin' chads, i suppose. Didn't they make a complete bollocks of the last elections to the Scottish Parliament?

I'm coming round to the idea that a yes vote for Scotland could be a serious win for the Conservatives. Mark Millar (the comics guy) posted on his FB about how he was now undecided and leaning towards no (while, coincidentally, still being painted as a definite yes) and he made a seemingly ludicrous assertion:

But again, can we please stop this dumbed down notion that independence would mean NO MORE TORIES? Or that Scotland never gets the government we voted for and this is why we need to cut ourselves off from Westminster? First of all, Scotland has had the government it voted for over thirteen of the past seventeen years. Two of the last three British Prime Ministers have been Scottish. Even the Thatcher years, a time not traditionally associated with right wing votes in Scotland, the Conservative share of the vote was within a whisker of Labour’s in both 1979 and 1983. Looking back over the forties, fifties and much of the sixties Scotland OVERWHELMINGLY backed the Conservatives and Conservative support here is rock solid all the way back to the Whig-era in the middle of the nineteenth century. The notion that Scotland is any less right wing than England is a complete fallacy.

So I did the sort of thing I usually do, and checked the facts. And although he overplays the hand more than a little he's not wrong in principle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_in_Scotland#UK_Parliament.2C_Westminster

1945: Lab 47.9% of vote, 52% of seats; Con 40.3% of votes, 38% of seats
1950: Lab 46.2% of vote, 52% of seats; Con 44.8% of vote, 44% of seats
1951: Lab 47.9% of vote, 49% of seats; Con 48.6% of votes, 49% of seats
1955: Lab 46.7% of vote, 48% of seats; Con 50.1% of vote, 51% of seats
1959: Lab 46.7% of vote, 54% of seats; Con 47.3% of votes, 44% of seats
1964: Lab 48.7% of vote, 61% of seats; Con 40.6% of vote, 34% of seats
1966: Lab 49.9% of vote, 65% of seats; Con 37.6% of votes, 28% of seats
1970: Lab 44.5% of vote, 62% of seats; Con 38% of vote, 33% of seats
1974 #1: Lab 36.6% of vote, 56% of seats; Con 32.9% of votes, 30% of seats
1974 #2: Lab 36.6% of vote, 58% of seats; Con 24.7% of vote, 23% of seats
1979: Lab 41.6% of vote, 62% of seats; Con 31.4% of votes, 31% of seats
1983: Lab 35.1% of vote, 57% of seats; Con 28.4% of vote, 29% of seats
1987: Lab 42.4% of vote, 69% of seats; Con 24% of votes, 14% of seats
1992: Lab 39% of vote, 68% of seats; Con 25.6% of vote, 15% of seats
1997: Lab 45.6% of vote, 78% of seats; Con 17.5% of votes, 0% of seats
2001: Lab 43.3% of vote, 77% of seats; Con 15.6% of vote, 0% of seats
2005: Lab 39.5% of vote, 69% of seats; Con 15.8% of vote, 0% of seats
2010: Lab 42% of vote, 69% of seats; Con 16.7% of votes, 0% of seats

Now whereas they're not going to win any election soon a move to proportional representation (or even the current Scottish parliament model) in an independent Scotland would see them return to a position of relative influence and be the kingmaker in a hung parliament in the short term; in the longer term with a bit of rebranding and when the SNP become just another party I think there are votes to be won as Scotlnad becomes two-party. It's only in the Blair era they started to fall away seriously; and just as Thatcher will inevitably become something only old people talk about it's not inconceivable that the choice of a new generation could be Tory.

Yep, I think they would have greater influence again. Separating them from the Westminster party (and its toxic brand) would also allow Scottish Tories to move more to the Left and better appeal to the centre ground in Scotland. Just as Labour in Westminster has to be (or feels it has to be) more rightwards than it would naturally be.

And in the 2010 election, there were 412,855 Scottish votes for the Tory party - not many fewer than the 491,386 for the SNP.

Scotland has a fine tradition of importing its right wing blowhards to England - to the Tory Party or the media or both - let's hope that is not adversely affected by a Yes vote.

I'm still lost on how Scotland is already a country.

If Scotland wins independence, would it become a constituent country like Australia or Canada? Would there be a border patrol set up at Gretna?

And lol @ "the better Scandinavian countries".

A constituent country? Whassat?

Yep, I think they would have greater influence again. Separating them from the Westminster party (and its toxic brand) would also allow Scottish Tories to move more to the Left and better appeal to the centre ground in Scotland. Just as Labour in Westminster has to be (or feels it has to be) more rightwards than it would naturally be.

― stet, Monday, September 15, 2014 9:31 AM (25 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah what youd see is prob a realignment with distinct scottish parties

I assume everyone is aware that the old nickname for the SNP was the Tartan Tories?

A constituent country? Whassat?

Something I read during my extensive late-night research on the topic at Wikipedia.org.

Ah, just did the same, Aus and Canuckia are not constituent countries though?

Whoops, the four countries of the United Kingdom are "constituent" countries.

Australia, et. al are your run-of-the-mill constitutional monarchies.

I assume that will be Scotland's fate as they're sticking with the ghastly Windsors

I mean, Texas was a country before it joined the union, but we don't call it a country anymore. (They do, but that's a whole other deal.)

Ahem the real old nickname was the Scottish Nose Pickers

I'm usually all for independence and going out after it on your own, but in this case, I just don't see what the point is, especially if you're going to keep the pound notes with the Queen on 'em.

we have some banknotes free of the queen atm, freedom is already ours

http://www.scotbanks.org.uk/banknoteapp/img/clyde20.jpg

http://www.gmb.org.uk/newsroom/snp-betray-scottish-blacklisted-workers-on-dundee-contract

SNP still not afraid to fuck the workforce and union members over. It's alleged they colluded with the Tories to achieve it in this instance, but I can't find the individual voting stats. But this is directly contrary to Scottish Government guidelines and to a Dundee council vote as recently as April.

I think the Daily Show segment I saw on this didn't really help by talking about it in the same breath as countries gaining independence from the British empire, where Scotland and England were by contrast joined by an act of union. The word "independence" has all those connotations, which makes the wording of the referendum look all freedom-loving and positive.

I assume everyone is aware that the old nickname for the SNP was the Tartan Tories?

was that not coined by the labour party because the SNP helped bring down the labour govt. for shafting them over the devo referendum?

It seems to me that up in Scotland the best way to win votes is to paint the opposition as "tories" even if they have no policies in common. Especially in a country known for "voting for a monkey in a red rosette".

The Labour party have far more in common with the tories when it comes down to it and that explains why so many of you trad labour guys are voting yes to escape it.

I had an uncle who once called the SNP as scottish national protestants.
why do scots love sectarianism so much?

If there is a Yes, the post-mortem is going to be pretty damning on Cameron both for agreeing to a single question *and* for the wording of that question. Xp to Alba

http://www.scotbanks.org.uk/banknoteapp/img/clyde20.jpg

putting putin on the money doesnt make me feel better abt this

Countries: It's taken me a while to get my head around Parliament – the one in Westminster – as the legislature for the United Kingdom of Great Britain, but the UKGB is run by the queen of one of those countries. Like if NAFTA was a real place, but was always ruled by the Emperor of Mexico?

But you gotta have your own currency or else you look funny.

http://nongsride.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/tumblr_m6canmQSIE1qawmj6o1_400.jpg

Except for you, Ecuador. You guys get a pass.

The Union of the crowns came before the Act of union, pp. England's royal line ended, so it took the Scots King James.

I know I sound like a certain ILXor from one of the better Scandinavian countries, so I'll pipe down.

was that not coined by the labour party because the SNP helped bring down the labour govt. for shafting them over the devo referendum?

... the Tartan Tories, that is. I'm not sure, I thought a lost of the early shakers and movers in the SNP (people like Winnie Ewing and Gordon Wilson) were fairly right wing? Also, early on, they seemed to have a lot of support in areas that probably voted Tory previously, rural areas.

I'm sure some tories cant bring themselves to vote Labour and vice versa.
SNP certainly are to the left of Labour in my lifetime. Why did the Tories win so many seats in Scotland until the 1950s when the Labour Party was formed BY a Scot? I find that odd. Were the tories not that extreme until Thatcher or is there some weird reason that Scots voted tory like sectarianism? The reason I ask is because whenever Scots tories have ever appeared on TV they always call themselves Conservative & Unionist Party.

Winnie Ewing was for a while the MP for Hamilton, a place where you'd be hard pressed to find any Tories. The only Tory area round that way would be the fancier parts of Bothwell (Silverwells etc.).

The Tories in Scotland were called the Unionist party until the 1950s, yep.

the "Unionist" bit in the Conservative party's name derives from Anglo-Irish politics but it's not like that has had no influence in Scotland. the Conservatives have also always had big support in rural areas - a lot of Scotland is/was rural areas. and the pre-1979 Tory party was radically different to the post-79 party but not in all the ways you might expect

feels like in particular the early roll-out of the Poll Tax has been used as a Bloody Sunday-esque rallying point for Scot Nats

would Scottish Gaelic become an official language of an independent Scotland?

pondering what sort of impact on other regions of the UK a "No" vote followed by Devo Max powers will have

probably sets a more feasible/useful precedent for bits of england at least

i can see it stoking a case, yeah, but i can also see central gov resisting concessions to other regions pretty hard

I don't hold out much hope, I'm just waiting for the EU to swallow up the whole island

well let's consider the Tories riding to an overall majority next year on the back of a Scottish "No" vote and a shitty opposition, then holding a referendum on EU membership, then...

First of all, Scotland has had the government it voted for over thirteen of the past seventeen years.

Interesting period to choose, in that it starts immediately after 18 straight years of Tory rule during which their support in Scotland dropped from 31 to 17%.

It's fairer to say Scotland often gets the government it voted for, but only when England agrees.

Cant see devo max happening since none of the parties promised it even in the panic. Once Scotland votes no you will see tory and labour mp's real colours and they wont want their powers taken from them at Westminster and Labour doesn't want to lose Scots mp's votes on English matters so they wont give Scotland meaningful powers. The power to remove bedroom tax seems to be the only one on offer. Is that enough to bribe them to vote no?

It's fairer to say Scotland often gets the government it voted for, but only when England agrees.

Postwar, if we have to break it down in this way, Scottish voters got the government they, but not England, voted for in 1951, 1964, 1974 and 2005.

the "Unionist" bit in the Conservative party's name derives from Anglo-Irish politics but it's not like that has had no influence in Scotland.

For a start, where d'you reckon we got Unionists from?

ha, yeah I had a hunch about that one.

http://i.imgur.com/GBPnUOV.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party