the scottish independence referendum

Alba, it's fairly clear that all the Tory voters disappeared like morning mist over the last 15 years. There's just no basis for speculating on what new policies might energise the future of the SNP, to whom we can all wish good cheer as they celebrate their 15th year.

They didn't all disappear: first past the post makes it look like that, but as I said upthread, they got 412,855 Scottish votes in the 2010 election, to the SNP's 491,386.

My general point, though, is just that this is for ever (probably). People seem to be saying "oh, the 1950s was years ago" like a nation's political journey is now over and its leftwing leaning set in stone. I've even heard people trying to persuade people to vote yes on the grounds that they think the Tories will probably get in 2015, like the next fucking general election is a reason to split from the rest of the UK. There are arguments I respect for independence, but that is not one of them.

Seeing no further than who wins the next election is just the usual horse race type of thinking, but presumably, if Scottish Tories ever win control of the Scottish Parliament, then it's because they did very well in the preceding election. Which is why you have elections, innit?

People seem to be saying "oh, the 1950s was years ago" like a nation's political journey is now over and its leftwing leaning set in stone.

It's not really a like-for-like comparison here. The Unionists of the 1950s that were popular in Scotland are not the modern Conservatives. The 1950 manifesto included commitments to build much more social housing, to keep the nationalised coal industry, to maintain Fisheries protectionism and increase home rule in Scotland (but it did promise to stop any further nationalisation). That manifesto would probably find a lot of support in Scotland even today.

What has never had significant support in Scotland is free-market Thatcher and post-Thatcher Conservatism. It's not so much that Scotland changed and moved away from England, it feels more like the opposite, and Westminster might have started to go places where 50.01% of Scots don't want to follow.

On the rUK side of things, this is fascinating:

Without those bloody Scotch MPs, a number of Westminster votes would have turned out for the better. (A surprisingly small number of votes, right enough)

Er link

persuade people to vote yes on the grounds that they think the Tories will probably get in 2015

while the latest scottish labour no letter to voters signed by johann lamont and gordon brown consists mainly of a list of supposed SNP policy gaps as a reason to vote no (if you don't know)

there's as much equation of independence with SNP as there is union with the tories

Err, I'm not ranking the two campaigns here – the No campaign is fucking awful. I'm talking about whether Scotland should be independent.

Good piece from Billy Bragg

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/16/scottish-nationalism-british-westminster-class

I know you're not backing the no campaign alba! just saying yes there's a stramash of skewed representations designed to motivate from individuals and campaigns alike that some voters will hear as salient and convincing alas

after independence it was all sweetness and joy for us I highly recommend it

is this pretty much matching what people are feeling in their waters? http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

Paddy Power are paying out on a No vote already but that's partly a publicity stunt, i think.

Betfair, rather than Paddy Power, apparently.

betfair too http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/16/uk-scotland-independence-gambling-idUKKBN0HB1E720140916

Bookmakers sometimes pay out early on sports events when they consider the result a foregone conclusion, deciding that the publicity they generate is worth the risk should there be a surprise turnaround.

"We've decided that 'No' is most likely to be the winning vote in 3 days' time, so we've put our money where our mouth is," online betting specialist Betfair said.

Sportsbook is expected to provide about 9 per cent of Betfair’s revenue this year, against 62 per cent from exchange. For a single novelty sportsbook market, the cost to the company of paying out early will be somewhere between negligible and nil.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/16/1971862/no-betfair-has-not-just-called-the-scottish-referendum/

twats

This piece by Ewan Morrison is not quite where I am - I'll still be voting Yes unless something changes drastically in the next 48 hours, but I'm not fully convinced by the campaign at all. I'm just more unconvinced by Better Together and that doesn't feel like strong enough justification for such a huge political decision. I really wish Devo Max was a real option and not just some half-arsed emergency concession as a result of the status quo being threatened. There are too many problems with the Yes campaign for me to outright ignore, and the feeling I've had over the past few weeks is that raising these problems - or even just going on social media to see them be raised - only to be dismissed and shut down by independence supporters makes me hugely uncomfortable.

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/

I've seen this graphic circulating about - a screengrab from the Twitter of popular Indy blog Wings Over Scotland. I've seen so much blind adulation and support for this guy's work and yet here's an example of blatant transphobia and I've not seen nearly enough people call this kind of thing out.

There's something really horrible about a voice who seems so prominent in the campaign being so against the idea of identity as self-determined.

http://athousandflowersblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/screen-shot-2013-09-01-at-22-14-10.png

i thought most everyone on both sides recognised that he was a terrible guy

How I wish my experience of people reacting to that guy was the same.

He also did a piece a few years ago blaming Liverpool fans for Hillsborough. He's an odious character.

http://wosland.podgamer.com/no-justice-for-the-96/

Wings is a nob, but he does do some good stuff.

The Ewan Morrison piece is flawed in its premise that the Yes campaign is akin to the old authoritarian left. It's a genuinely autonomous grassroots movement. His Judean Peoples Front stuff is not the vibrant and diverse movement I've been part of. Methinks he's just in the huff.

It's the payoff I don't really get. "I have to vote No, because what if I voted Yes and then things got messy and political? That'd be embarrassing on the world stage".

Guy wants a new socialist utopia, isn't prepared to risk snark from The Economist to get it.

That was rather hastily composed. I do think Wings has done some good journalism and analysis, but his odious opinions on various things have made me very uncomfortable.

Morrison also seems to think that we should be discussing issues that are more pertinent to an election, i.e. party policy. Nobody is shutting down debate - that's the complete opposite of my experience. The focus now, however, is on the why and how of independence.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/09/15/david-camerons-open-letter-to-the-people-of-scotland/

i know it's childish but lol spectator political columnist and telegenic gen-y panellist "isabel hardman"

lot of discussion about this in my (american, with one mancunian) office

americans are worried that removing the blue will ruin the union jack

I don't disagree that the Yes campaign is a grassroots movement but my experience with Yes voters - in real life, online, via all sources of media - is that their militancy regarding dissent from within their own supporters is troubling. It might be a diverse movement but a lot of my own experience is that Yes voters like diversity but not so much when it differs from their own vision of Scotland. I'm seeing plenty of debate about why independence is vital - and I don't disagree it is - but the questions of what will happen not being up for answer is not helping. As Morrison points out, the differing visions of Scotland can't all be compatible, and what Yes should have focussed on is how localised government strengthens democracy regardless of your own political persuasion, not perpetuating dreams of Tory silence in Scotland.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Better Together will shit themselves when they see this.

ILX is probably the perfect Yes demographic … aside from not living in Scotland for the most part.

phew!

scotland / n 3

NAME AND SHAME!!!

there are 32 scottish ilxors?

Including sockpuppets?

scotchpuppets

Scotland is the most highly represented per captita nationality on ILX. Isn't that a given at this point?

how many scottish ilxors would there be in an ideal world?

exactly as many as there currently are :)

scots and lots

treesh how do u feel abt scottish independence in general

lol that highest representation for 'no' vote is uk other than scotland

depends on whether it would be an economic disaster, as some have projected. emotionally, i think it's a good idea. it seems better for scotland to not be represented by a conservative prime minister or to have to maintain some kind of association with the royal family.

treesh for some reason they want to keep the queen as their sovereign

ew

lots of basic financal reasons for the rest of the uk to be wary of scotland leaving such as sterling crash predicted by societe generale's chief economist the other day

very much in favour of scottish independence right now even taking account of those risks, and the risks of political and eventual economic disaster caused by heightened chance of a remainder uk living eu, because the last few weeks have highlighted how decrepit and risible the current constitutional settlement is

#leaving#