the scottish independence referendum

Bookmakers sometimes pay out early on sports events when they consider the result a foregone conclusion, deciding that the publicity they generate is worth the risk should there be a surprise turnaround.

"We've decided that 'No' is most likely to be the winning vote in 3 days' time, so we've put our money where our mouth is," online betting specialist Betfair said.

Sportsbook is expected to provide about 9 per cent of Betfair’s revenue this year, against 62 per cent from exchange. For a single novelty sportsbook market, the cost to the company of paying out early will be somewhere between negligible and nil.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/16/1971862/no-betfair-has-not-just-called-the-scottish-referendum/

twats

This piece by Ewan Morrison is not quite where I am - I'll still be voting Yes unless something changes drastically in the next 48 hours, but I'm not fully convinced by the campaign at all. I'm just more unconvinced by Better Together and that doesn't feel like strong enough justification for such a huge political decision. I really wish Devo Max was a real option and not just some half-arsed emergency concession as a result of the status quo being threatened. There are too many problems with the Yes campaign for me to outright ignore, and the feeling I've had over the past few weeks is that raising these problems - or even just going on social media to see them be raised - only to be dismissed and shut down by independence supporters makes me hugely uncomfortable.

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/ewan-morrison-yes-why-i-joined-yes-and-why-i-changed-to-no/

I've seen this graphic circulating about - a screengrab from the Twitter of popular Indy blog Wings Over Scotland. I've seen so much blind adulation and support for this guy's work and yet here's an example of blatant transphobia and I've not seen nearly enough people call this kind of thing out.

There's something really horrible about a voice who seems so prominent in the campaign being so against the idea of identity as self-determined.

http://athousandflowersblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/screen-shot-2013-09-01-at-22-14-10.png

i thought most everyone on both sides recognised that he was a terrible guy

How I wish my experience of people reacting to that guy was the same.

He also did a piece a few years ago blaming Liverpool fans for Hillsborough. He's an odious character.

http://wosland.podgamer.com/no-justice-for-the-96/

Wings is a nob, but he does do some good stuff.

The Ewan Morrison piece is flawed in its premise that the Yes campaign is akin to the old authoritarian left. It's a genuinely autonomous grassroots movement. His Judean Peoples Front stuff is not the vibrant and diverse movement I've been part of. Methinks he's just in the huff.

It's the payoff I don't really get. "I have to vote No, because what if I voted Yes and then things got messy and political? That'd be embarrassing on the world stage".

Guy wants a new socialist utopia, isn't prepared to risk snark from The Economist to get it.

That was rather hastily composed. I do think Wings has done some good journalism and analysis, but his odious opinions on various things have made me very uncomfortable.

Morrison also seems to think that we should be discussing issues that are more pertinent to an election, i.e. party policy. Nobody is shutting down debate - that's the complete opposite of my experience. The focus now, however, is on the why and how of independence.

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2014/09/15/david-camerons-open-letter-to-the-people-of-scotland/

i know it's childish but lol spectator political columnist and telegenic gen-y panellist "isabel hardman"

lot of discussion about this in my (american, with one mancunian) office

americans are worried that removing the blue will ruin the union jack

I don't disagree that the Yes campaign is a grassroots movement but my experience with Yes voters - in real life, online, via all sources of media - is that their militancy regarding dissent from within their own supporters is troubling. It might be a diverse movement but a lot of my own experience is that Yes voters like diversity but not so much when it differs from their own vision of Scotland. I'm seeing plenty of debate about why independence is vital - and I don't disagree it is - but the questions of what will happen not being up for answer is not helping. As Morrison points out, the differing visions of Scotland can't all be compatible, and what Yes should have focussed on is how localised government strengthens democracy regardless of your own political persuasion, not perpetuating dreams of Tory silence in Scotland.

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Better Together will shit themselves when they see this.

ILX is probably the perfect Yes demographic … aside from not living in Scotland for the most part.

phew!

scotland / n 3

NAME AND SHAME!!!

there are 32 scottish ilxors?

Including sockpuppets?

scotchpuppets

Scotland is the most highly represented per captita nationality on ILX. Isn't that a given at this point?

how many scottish ilxors would there be in an ideal world?

exactly as many as there currently are :)

scots and lots

treesh how do u feel abt scottish independence in general

lol that highest representation for 'no' vote is uk other than scotland

depends on whether it would be an economic disaster, as some have projected. emotionally, i think it's a good idea. it seems better for scotland to not be represented by a conservative prime minister or to have to maintain some kind of association with the royal family.

treesh for some reason they want to keep the queen as their sovereign

ew

lots of basic financal reasons for the rest of the uk to be wary of scotland leaving such as sterling crash predicted by societe generale's chief economist the other day

very much in favour of scottish independence right now even taking account of those risks, and the risks of political and eventual economic disaster caused by heightened chance of a remainder uk living eu, because the last few weeks have highlighted how decrepit and risible the current constitutional settlement is

#leaving#

in the event of a no vote does Scotland have a Pearse figure ready to push things along

polls results very much in character then

Wow, I'm glad I've kept my trap shut as a No voter then. In fact, I may even have voted twice (in the poll, obv), as I was sure I had already voted then voted again. Still, it'll all be over soon...

Voting in polls twice is a no-no

My brother eventually decided to vote Yes, though last time I was up he spent most of an evening in the pub decrying the various arseholes (online for the most part) who are campaigining for Yes, or else, standing outside the BBC in Glasgow (he works at the BBC) calling for journalists' heads. Among actual nationalists, as opposed to people voting Yes, there are definitely some seriously dodgy types but, hopefully, they'll back in their boxes after the vote is finished, however it goes.

... so that means I only know one definite No voter out of everyone I know in Scotland... oh hold on, there's another, but she's English so whaddaya expect <--- blatantly anti-English remark, phone the newspapers

treesh for some reason they want to keep the queen as their sovereign

― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Wednesday, 17 September 2014 02:17 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Courting the hun vote. You can be independent but still love the queen and hate the Catholics.

think my family are all voting no. they want an independent Scotland but have no faith in Salmond etc being able to deliver it, can't wait for this to be all over so i don't have to hear another extended rant from my dad about "those useless fucks in Holyrood" - oh who am i kidding it's not going to stop is it :/

it seems better for scotland to not be represented by a conservative prime minister

It is totally possible that, after the next election, they won't be, even as part of the UK. As Alba has noted, this does not seem like a sensible reason for secession.

it is a reason for some people but agree it's the most myopic of reasons

have no faith in Salmond etc being able to deliver it

gotta presume in the event of yes it won't be salmond delivering it per se but holyrood and westminster hashing it out as amicably as poss right?

My immediately family are all voting no and in my parent's village there is 1(one) Yes voter. I'm not suggesting polling companies don't understand their business but I think there's a real danger of confirmation bias in Greater Glasgow/Greater Edinburgh results being extrapolated across the country.

Personally, if I still lived in Scotland I would vote no as well. I believe in looking at what you know and understand and judging on that - if they've got it right then you can have faith the rest of it is right. If it's wrong then how can you believe any of the bits you know less well? I know defence (policy, planning, procurement, strategy) very well indeed and the stated policy shows a relative lack of understanding of how defence strategy is build up, is unaffordable and undeliverable in either short or probably medium term and requires trades against many of the other policies in order to stand a fighting chance (no pun intended) of ever achieving them.

but holyrood and westminster hashing it out as amicably as poss

Statement by AD on the radio this morning that three quarters of it is dependent on AS/Yes getting exactly what they want in negotiations - I can believe it based on how many times I've heard "it's in everybody's interest this happens" when the people they'd be negotiating with say that it won't.

If I still lived in Scotland I would not be putting a No poster in my window. I'd be fine telling close friends I was a No supporter, but even if the reports of aggro are overplayed, I just couldn't be arsed with worrying about what people would think of me. Maybe if I could find a Labour-specific "No" poster I'd be OK with that.

yeah seriously. "holyrood and westminster hashing it out as amicably as poss" is a preposterous assumption.

scotland will be negotating with a weakend/constrained UK govt. so even assuming the govt wanted to behave amicably (or "sensibly", for certain definitions of sensible), which they won't, they'll be under colossal pressure from UKIP voters (and a lot of other people) to resist things like currency union, and to extract concessions.

basic question: given the concern about how advisible currency union would be (assuming it were possible), why haven't yes campaigns ever proposed scotland would have its own currency?