the scottish independence referendum

in northern* ireland i should've specified

Yeah pretty much. My friend who hails from County Armagh reckons his area is more proudly British than anywhere in the UK. When he's at home, he's British, when he's in England he's Irish.

cant imagine being asked 'where are u from' type questions and not answering 'london'

And many immigrants like to identify as British but would feel less sure about calling themselves English, Welsh etc.

really?

Britain seems less of an ethnicity, so fits with multi-culturalism better. Black British, not Black English, etc.

Here are some stats:

http://www.britishfuture.org/blog/why-do-non-white-brits-feel-that-little-bit-more-british/

when are results supposed to be posted? do you folks do [often misleading] exit polls?

Results will be posted overnight, by council area. The final result should be known by 6 or 7am UK time (5 or 6am GMT).

We tend to have exit polls after general elections, but I've heard that there aren't any planned for this.

Saw an opinion poll this morning saying 53% no

I'm really not thinking the polls will offer much since most of them are by landline and there's 500,000 extra voters this time including huge numbers of 16 and 17 yr olds, which is a great thing.

I've went from a Yes to a Maybe and I still haven't made up my mind and it feels horrible.

Some pollsters are candid about the fact that their confidence levels a very low, because there's no real precedent to weight their data against. The ICM head said he wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being another 1992, when the general election polls vastly underestimated the Tory vote.

The 16-17 year olds are split 50-50 in the polling data - it's 20 and 30 somethings that have consistently the pro-Yes group (which partly explains why almost everyone I know in Scotland or see on social media is for Yes).

another 1992, when the general election polls vastly underestimated the Tory vote.

Oops, this sounds like I'm talking about the Tory vote again here. I'm not – I'm just using that as the famous example of when polls were very wrong.

I'm quite interested in what the tautological differences between the Yes vote and UKIP are though:

Both believe policy is better set by the government of the people who live there
Both believe the greater body is responsible for removing sovereign powers from the body they believe should be in control
Both believe they are a Net Contributor to said greater body to the economic detriment of themselves
Both believe the greater body is either unelected or does not represent how they would vote

Interesting that UKIP oppose Scottish independence given those beliefs.

One could draw up a similar set of "beliefs" showing problems Unionists have with Better Together somehow not applying to the island of Ireland.

James Ball on the lack of exit polls:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

Economists normally as ideologically disparate and disputatious as Alan Greenspan, Paul Krugman, Adam S. Posen and Niall Ferguson all have predicted a negative economic outlook for an independent Scotland, while expressing anxiety, too, about the impact of such uncertainty on the larger European and global economies.

Greenspan, Posen, AND Ferguson? I’m convinced.

But half of Scots, give or take a few percentage points, are expected to vote for independence anyway. Some do not believe the negative forecasts, calling them “fear-mongering.” Some say they resent the sense that an outside elite is patronizing them or doubting their capacity. And many will vote yes for other reasons — to feel responsible for their own fate and to build, or rebuild, what they hope will be a fairer, less unequal country of their own, for better or worse.

It is patronizing. The economic issues are unclear and posed by hacks.

re: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/18/world/europe/scotland-independence-referendum.html

Oddly, a quote from the most respected (and cited) macroeconomist referenced in the article is near the bottom:

Mr. Gethins pointed to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, who has dismissed most of the warnings, arguing in The Scotsman that “independence may have its costs — although these have yet to be demonstrated convincingly; but it will also have its benefits,” which Scotland can recapture through the taxes it would not have to share with London.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 20h
Wow. Edinburgh council says 89.6% of postal votes have been returned. That's massive. #indyref http://bit.ly/ZpOZMk

Rebecca Gray ‏@Rebecca__Gray 4h
By 10am, 18.5% of Scots had voted! Huge turnout. #indyref http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/indyref-live-vote.18092014718

big turnout as expected

The Stiglitz column is solid: http://www.scotsman.com/news/joseph-stiglitz-independence-has-costs-and-benefits-1-3541038

how do scottish people itt feel about conservative leaning people in the southeast of england who want or claim to want scotland to vote for independence?

the thing that worries me abt scottish independence from an economic perspective is they seem dead set on a currency union of some type which is not the best imo

has this been posted yet? fun to see how other areas are reacting http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w

neither krugman or stiglitz are particularly convincing because they are speaking in generalities from afar

thought this piece was better than both in prognosticating (or disavowing prognostications about) the likely economic consequences

not a nobel prize winning economist but a shrewd writer, and not american

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/15/scottish-economy-viable-scots-state/print

Great column. Thanks.

There was this also, written in February:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/scottish-referendum-salmond-independence-oil

lol at Niall Ferguson being described as an "Economist"

"I have to say that after the events I've been facing over the past few days, assassination would be a welcome release."

-- British Prime Minister David Cameron, quoted by National Review.

wow someones a lil stressed out

the sterling sharing agreement would presumably be a medium term thing until scotland is stabilized enough fiscally for a new currency and the formalities would certainly take longer than 18 months or whatever to set up as it says there

that fiscal stabilization would be painful though, to some degree by necessity else the usual capital wolves are at the door, and also because of domestic corporate or liberal interests mitigating social democratic aspirations

a new scottish currency would probably have to be in some sort of ERM with sterling in the immediate term anyway? even in ten years' time there will be huge amount of sterling denominated mortgage debt in scotland

lol at Niall Ferguson being described as an "Economist".

Economists, yep, they rarely get things wrong and are noted for their unanimity in most matters.

niall ferguson is personally unpleasant but amid all of the risible 'defence of small nations' dogshit still being current among uk politicians and commentariat wrt 1914, he deserves some respect for go against the grain

no reason to bother reading anything he writes about current uk/scottish politics

the sterling sharing agreement would presumably be a medium term thing until scotland is stabilized enough fiscally for a new currency and the formalities would certainly take longer than 18 months or whatever to set up as it says there

See, that would at least be an answer and/or make sense. But no, it's use "continue to use sterling".

I wouldn't say "Scotland = Ireland" would be likely. It may happen but the assumption is the SNP would be the biggest party to carry out policies that would result in 'plaything for multinationals', but if things aren't working they could disintegrate as a poltical force.

Great column. Thanks.

Aditya Chakrabortty rocks.

yeah ive said here before that he is the best guardian writer by a furlong (although some days that is not unlike being celtic in scottish football)
elliot is quite good too

do you think salmond seriously wants to remain under ecb dominion forever xps? not a rhetorical question, maybe he does idk
seems more like a temporary step that is given prominence to reisssue scottish debtors, its not like hardline nationalists wont vote yes anyway

#reassure#

What's the point of a 49.9%/50.1% score? Shouldn't it be "at least 75% of the votes" or something?

are u arguing this should be a supermajority vote

Not supermajority perhaps, but too close and we'll never hear the end of it from the losing side.

fairly sure if it required say 51% and 50.93% voted yes you would get rather more rancour.....

Setting up an independent country in which, say, 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want it to it exist does seem a bit crazier than the other way around.

i keep wondering what would happen to, say, a scottish family living and working in marseilles.

Could keep UK passport and apply for Scottish one if they wanted it.

huh!

Setting up an independent country in which, say, 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want it to it exist does seem a bit crazier than the other way around.

― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:57 (8 minutes ago)

49.5% of its inhabitants voting no ≠ 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want an independent scotland to exist tout court

As far as I know, nobody will be forced to give up a UK passport unless they apply for a Scottish one and the UK decides to ban dual passports, which they won't.

Setting up an independent country in which, say, 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want it to it exist does seem a bit crazier than the other way around.

What are they going to do, all move to Northern Ireland, like the Orange Order imagines?

shd just vote with twitter http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w