I'm really not thinking the polls will offer much since most of them are by landline and there's 500,000 extra voters this time including huge numbers of 16 and 17 yr olds, which is a great thing.
I've went from a Yes to a Maybe and I still haven't made up my mind and it feels horrible.
― boxedjoy, Thursday, 18 September 2014 13:53 (nine years ago) link
Some pollsters are candid about the fact that their confidence levels a very low, because there's no real precedent to weight their data against. The ICM head said he wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being another 1992, when the general election polls vastly underestimated the Tory vote.
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 13:54 (nine years ago) link
The 16-17 year olds are split 50-50 in the polling data - it's 20 and 30 somethings that have consistently the pro-Yes group (which partly explains why almost everyone I know in Scotland or see on social media is for Yes).
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 13:55 (nine years ago) link
another 1992, when the general election polls vastly underestimated the Tory vote.
Oops, this sounds like I'm talking about the Tory vote again here. I'm not – I'm just using that as the famous example of when polls were very wrong.
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 13:57 (nine years ago) link
I'm quite interested in what the tautological differences between the Yes vote and UKIP are though:Both believe policy is better set by the government of the people who live thereBoth believe the greater body is responsible for removing sovereign powers from the body they believe should be in controlBoth believe they are a Net Contributor to said greater body to the economic detriment of themselvesBoth believe the greater body is either unelected or does not represent how they would vote
Both believe policy is better set by the government of the people who live thereBoth believe the greater body is responsible for removing sovereign powers from the body they believe should be in controlBoth believe they are a Net Contributor to said greater body to the economic detriment of themselvesBoth believe the greater body is either unelected or does not represent how they would vote
Interesting that UKIP oppose Scottish independence given those beliefs.
One could draw up a similar set of "beliefs" showing problems Unionists have with Better Together somehow not applying to the island of Ireland.
― I misuse (onimo), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:11 (nine years ago) link
James Ball on the lack of exit polls:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:15 (nine years ago) link
Economists normally as ideologically disparate and disputatious as Alan Greenspan, Paul Krugman, Adam S. Posen and Niall Ferguson all have predicted a negative economic outlook for an independent Scotland, while expressing anxiety, too, about the impact of such uncertainty on the larger European and global economies.
Greenspan, Posen, AND Ferguson? I’m convinced.
― Allen (etaeoe), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:16 (nine years ago) link
But half of Scots, give or take a few percentage points, are expected to vote for independence anyway. Some do not believe the negative forecasts, calling them “fear-mongering.” Some say they resent the sense that an outside elite is patronizing them or doubting their capacity. And many will vote yes for other reasons — to feel responsible for their own fate and to build, or rebuild, what they hope will be a fairer, less unequal country of their own, for better or worse.
It is patronizing. The economic issues are unclear and posed by hacks.
― Allen (etaeoe), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:17 (nine years ago) link
re: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/18/world/europe/scotland-independence-referendum.html
Oddly, a quote from the most respected (and cited) macroeconomist referenced in the article is near the bottom:
Mr. Gethins pointed to Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, who has dismissed most of the warnings, arguing in The Scotsman that “independence may have its costs — although these have yet to be demonstrated convincingly; but it will also have its benefits,” which Scotland can recapture through the taxes it would not have to share with London.
― Allen (etaeoe), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:24 (nine years ago) link
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 20hWow. Edinburgh council says 89.6% of postal votes have been returned. That's massive. #indyref http://bit.ly/ZpOZMk
Rebecca Gray @Rebecca__Gray 4hBy 10am, 18.5% of Scots had voted! Huge turnout. #indyref http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/indyref-live-vote.18092014718
big turnout as expected
― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:25 (nine years ago) link
The Stiglitz column is solid: http://www.scotsman.com/news/joseph-stiglitz-independence-has-costs-and-benefits-1-3541038
― Allen (etaeoe), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:25 (nine years ago) link
how do scottish people itt feel about conservative leaning people in the southeast of england who want or claim to want scotland to vote for independence?
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:25 (nine years ago) link
the thing that worries me abt scottish independence from an economic perspective is they seem dead set on a currency union of some type which is not the best imo
― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:28 (nine years ago) link
has this been posted yet? fun to see how other areas are reacting http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w
― ( X '____' )/ (zappi), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:28 (nine years ago) link
neither krugman or stiglitz are particularly convincing because they are speaking in generalities from afar
thought this piece was better than both in prognosticating (or disavowing prognostications about) the likely economic consequences
not a nobel prize winning economist but a shrewd writer, and not american
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/15/scottish-economy-viable-scots-state/print
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:29 (nine years ago) link
Great column. Thanks.
― Allen (etaeoe), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:34 (nine years ago) link
There was this also, written in February:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/scottish-referendum-salmond-independence-oil
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:41 (nine years ago) link
lol at Niall Ferguson being described as an "Economist"
― Barry Gordy (Neil S), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:41 (nine years ago) link
"I have to say that after the events I've been facing over the past few days, assassination would be a welcome release."
-- British Prime Minister David Cameron, quoted by National Review.
wow someones a lil stressed out
― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:42 (nine years ago) link
the sterling sharing agreement would presumably be a medium term thing until scotland is stabilized enough fiscally for a new currency and the formalities would certainly take longer than 18 months or whatever to set up as it says there
that fiscal stabilization would be painful though, to some degree by necessity else the usual capital wolves are at the door, and also because of domestic corporate or liberal interests mitigating social democratic aspirations
a new scottish currency would probably have to be in some sort of ERM with sterling in the immediate term anyway? even in ten years' time there will be huge amount of sterling denominated mortgage debt in scotland
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:44 (nine years ago) link
lol at Niall Ferguson being described as an "Economist".
Economists, yep, they rarely get things wrong and are noted for their unanimity in most matters.
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:48 (nine years ago) link
niall ferguson is personally unpleasant but amid all of the risible 'defence of small nations' dogshit still being current among uk politicians and commentariat wrt 1914, he deserves some respect for go against the grain
no reason to bother reading anything he writes about current uk/scottish politics
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:50 (nine years ago) link
See, that would at least be an answer and/or make sense. But no, it's use "continue to use sterling".
― and she's crying in a stairwell in Devon (aldo), Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:52 (nine years ago) link
I wouldn't say "Scotland = Ireland" would be likely. It may happen but the assumption is the SNP would be the biggest party to carry out policies that would result in 'plaything for multinationals', but if things aren't working they could disintegrate as a poltical force.
― xyzzzz__, Thursday, 18 September 2014 14:55 (nine years ago) link
Aditya Chakrabortty rocks.
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:04 (nine years ago) link
yeah ive said here before that he is the best guardian writer by a furlong (although some days that is not unlike being celtic in scottish football)elliot is quite good too
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:07 (nine years ago) link
do you think salmond seriously wants to remain under ecb dominion forever xps? not a rhetorical question, maybe he does idkseems more like a temporary step that is given prominence to reisssue scottish debtors, its not like hardline nationalists wont vote yes anyway
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:08 (nine years ago) link
#reassure#
What's the point of a 49.9%/50.1% score? Shouldn't it be "at least 75% of the votes" or something?
― StanM, Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:34 (nine years ago) link
are u arguing this should be a supermajority vote
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:42 (nine years ago) link
Not supermajority perhaps, but too close and we'll never hear the end of it from the losing side.
― StanM, Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:46 (nine years ago) link
fairly sure if it required say 51% and 50.93% voted yes you would get rather more rancour.....
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:48 (nine years ago) link
Setting up an independent country in which, say, 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want it to it exist does seem a bit crazier than the other way around.
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 15:57 (nine years ago) link
i keep wondering what would happen to, say, a scottish family living and working in marseilles.
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:03 (nine years ago) link
Could keep UK passport and apply for Scottish one if they wanted it.
― Wristy Hurlington (ShariVari), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:06 (nine years ago) link
huh!
― TracerHandVEVO (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:07 (nine years ago) link
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:57 (8 minutes ago)
49.5% of its inhabitants voting no ≠ 49.5% of its inhabitants don't want an independent scotland to exist tout court
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:08 (nine years ago) link
As far as I know, nobody will be forced to give up a UK passport unless they apply for a Scottish one and the UK decides to ban dual passports, which they won't.
― Wristy Hurlington (ShariVari), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:09 (nine years ago) link
What are they going to do, all move to Northern Ireland, like the Orange Order imagines?
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:11 (nine years ago) link
shd just vote with twitter http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w
― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:11 (nine years ago) link
People would get used to the idea and get on with their lives... if actually happened, which it won't
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:13 (nine years ago) link
My brother has moved back to No because, in his words, "the Yessers are a total embarrassment"
― FYI Macedonia (Tom D.), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:18 (nine years ago) link
To be fair, almost any large scale movement looks like a total embarrassment.
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:25 (nine years ago) link
― Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:27 (nine years ago) link
there are some legitimacy arguments wrt the majoritarian plebiscite for something as significant and irreversible as this
then there is the rejoinder that if votes were weighted by life expectancy in order to favour those who are most exposed to the perils of living in a new country, there would be a clear if not super-majority
― Nothing less than the Spirit of the Age (nakhchivan), Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:29 (nine years ago) link
― lag∞n, Thursday, September 18, 2014 12:11 PM (26 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
tons of yes tweets coming from catalonia
― lag∞n, Thursday, 18 September 2014 16:38 (nine years ago) link
Until a few weeks ago I was firmly No (voted No on this thread), then I was sure I wasn't going to vote at all because I wasn't confident about either side; then 20 minutes ago I decided to vote and voted Yes out of overwhelming curiosity to see what it's like if independence does happen.
― Robert Adam Gilmour, Thursday, 18 September 2014 17:13 (nine years ago) link
Remember when Twitter was small enough to have a world map like that just showed any old tweet?
twittervision
― Alba, Thursday, 18 September 2014 17:13 (nine years ago) link
'stoked 4 the madness' vote could be key
― intelligent, expressive males within the greater metropolitan (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, 18 September 2014 17:14 (nine years ago) link
has there been comments on this whole by Wales or NI officials? is there any chance the Welsh follow suit?
― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 18 September 2014 17:14 (nine years ago) link