the scottish independence referendum

It's an entirely different beast to be tethered to though. I don't see a conflict there at all.

The point of Nicola Sturgeon's intervention was to highlight the fact that Scotland is not an equal partner in the UK. You've had your fun Scotland, now shut up and let the natural Westminster order be.

The EU is a different kind of union to the UK, so there's no contradiction in Sturgeon's independence in Europe position. The SNP wants to see Scotland as a normal European nation state, rather than a junior partner in an obsolete imperial construction.

If the UK is a democracy then of course Scotland isn't an equal partner, it's a 10% stake (roughly). Which is more or less the stake it has in Westminster, although the Scottish Conservative vote (11% at the last general election) doesn't have a voice in that. Or are you suggesting that Northern Ireland (population <2M, much less than, say, Greater Manchester) should also be fully equal partners in the UK with veto etc?

Nicola Sturgeon is.

the Scottish Conservative vote (11% at the last general election) doesn't have a voice in that

It's no wonder then that they are so wholeheartedly committed to some form of electoral reform which would better represent th.... uh, hold on.

Meanwhile, what's happening with Scottish LOLbour?

I don't think Sturgeon seriously thought Scotland would get a veto. She accepts Scotland is a junior partner to its larger neighbour, but the point of Sturgeon's intervention was to show who the real boss is and expose Better Together's rhetoric about a family of nations and the promises of more powers as so much hot air. Westminster walked right into her trap by slapping down any challenge to its authority. If we're partners, why are we being dictated to?
She's also trying to get people to think about how a federal UK might work - in which case Scotland, Wales and NI would by rights have to have some degree of veto. Obviously the differing populations can't mean Scotland or NI trumps the rUK, so you would have to have some kind of mechanism in place which would allow for a consensus to be reached. Bringing in cities is besides the point - the UK is not a union of cities.

Bringing in a federal UK besides the point - the UK isn't a federal structure.

"Applied to a uniform swing across all Scottish constituencies, this result would leave Labour with just four MPs in Scotland – a drop of 36 MPs. The SNP would go from six MPs to 54."

Jings, crivvens, etc.

Granted, the asymmetry of the union makes federalism a tricky one, but something's got to give, because the current set up just isn't working for Scotland, Wales or NI - or indeed the North of England. I don't claim to have any answers to that, but a UK wide constitutional discussion has got to happen.

x-post, that poll is very interesting. I doubt the Labour rout will be as extreme as that, but it'll hopefully shit them up north and south of the border. It suggests Scottish voters recognise that their votes don't count for much in UK elections and are no longer willing to vote for entitled right-wing Labour MPs in order to "keep the Tories out". It's not Scotland's job to bail the rUK out from a Tory government - after all, a Labour majority based on

oops, posted to early...

a Labour majority that relies on Scottish votes to beat an English Tory majority is pretty precarious. Anyway, these are arguments that came up during the referendum and I'm sure have been discussed on here. But it's interesting that they're still relevant to the current situation.

I'm not sure the system is working particularly well for anyone right now bar some people in the South of England, even London has its own unique problems that are being largely ignored by the main parties. A majority of the electorate favour policies (eg renationalisation of railways/utilities, higher wealth taxes) that aren't being proposed by any mainstream party, the entire political system is broken and it is largely Labour's fault for failing to provide proper opposition. I'm not sure this is even a uniquely Scottish thing, it's just that Scotland has older and better organised alternatives and outlets.

Jim Murphy is absolutely toxic. The fact that he's favourite to lead labour in Scotland is making a lot of SNP voters feel extremely happy.

i've never voted SNP btw but I will.

"With the uniform swing, even Scottish Labour leadership candidate Jim Murphy’s seat would be at risk."

I'm sure his attempts to get into Holyrood are nothing to do with his Westminster prospects.

Used to be a Tory seat!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/04/snp-set-for-56-of-59-scottish-seats-in-general-election-poll-suggests

Jim Murphy: "David Cameron will be rubbing his hands with glee when he sees these polls, because any seat the SNP take from Scottish Labour makes it more likely the Tories will be the largest party across the UK.

“It is a simple fact that in every election since before the second world war, the largest party has gone on to form the government. In May’s election, the biggest party will be either Labour or the Tories. This election is too close to call with Labour and the Tories running neck and neck. This poll makes clear that only Labour is big enough and strong enough to beat the Tories across the UK.

“We need to do everything we can to stop the Tories being the largest party, and the way to do that is to vote for Scottish Labour.

“We can’t let David Cameron back into Downing Street by the back door. That would be a disaster for Scotland, but it looks like that is what might happen if these polls in Scotland are repeated on election day.”

That's quite the election platform he's got there.

lol so tawdry. "You and I both know you are never going to vote for us because you actually want us or our policies... but hey it could be worse!"

Excellent spectator piece on the ramifications:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9453802/why-an-snp-surge-at-westminster-could-mean-the-end-of-britain/

"But we're not the Tories" has been Labour's mantra for well over a decade now, don't expect them to stop now.

Even allowing for the concentration of constituencies in urban areas, I can't see where that 56-seat number is going to come from, given that the majority of the country has only just voted against independence. So either Murphy is especially toxic or they are expecting lower turnout, with the SNP vote out in force everywhere.

Massie's piece is interesting, but I really don't buy notion that the SNP want the Tories in because it'll make another independence referendum more likely. Cameron won't be likely to offer Scotland many concessions and the Scottish Government won't relish the prospect of having to deal with cuts in the Barnett Formula and any other measures designed to put us uppity Scots in our place. Sturgeon has clearly stated that while the ultimate goal is independence, their immediate aim is to win Scotland better representation in Westminster and push an anti-austerity agenda across the UK. I'm also not sure she would want another referendum in the next Holyrood term - too soon, too risky.
The Labour line about the Tories rubbing their hands at the prospect of Labour losing its Scottish seats is disingenous - the Tories are worried about the SNP because of the threat the represent to the union and the status quo. Hence Tories talking about tactically voting for Labour to keep out the SNP.

X-post - I suspect it's exactly that - low turn out, SNP out in force.

My incumbent Labour MP is fairly chronic, I'd be hoping to see him gone regardless.

Murphy's surely aware of his own logic fail though, voting Labour in the 2010 election hardly kept Cameron out of No 10.

I don't think the SNP will get as many as 56 seats, but it's clear there's going to be a bit of a Labour rout, and not before time. No voters will vote for the SNP too - as John Curtis has argued, the referendum campaign was effectively a two year advertisement for the SNP. Everyone knows what their policies are and recognise their competency - unlike Labour, who can't make their mind up about anything and committed political suicide by campaigning alongside the Tories in the referendum campaign. If they'd had a separate Labour for No campaign they wouldn't be in such a dire state.

xpost
From my experience of the last eight years living in Glasgow, Scottish Labour are almost EXACTLY like the Tories - complacent and stupid. Since the referendum, polling has shown that if it were to happen again, the Yes vote would now win. So I think there's an element of voter remorse on the part of No voters here.

Turnout will be a lot lower than the referendum and the demographics of who is eligible are different. No idea how that will translate but I suspect it will help the SNP as their support seems a lot more engaged.

I'm not sure we should place too much stock on those "how would you vote now" polls, as there's nothing really at stake. But there's no doubt that whether people support independence or not, they recognise the SNP as Scotland's best representative and want rid of the complacent and corrupt right-wing SLab MPs who have failed the country. A minority Lab government backed by SNP, Greens, Plaid etc will be far better for the UK as a whole than a Lab majority.

All that, plus Murphy really is toxic.

Yet he's one of the three non-SNPs projected to win in this poll! He'll the the only SLab MP in Westminster which is pretty funny really.

Murphy is my MP. He will hold his seat. I wish this were not the case.

I was sure he was at Strathclyde Uni at the same time as me and sure enough I checked and it's true, however wikipedia sez "He was a student at Strathclyde for 9 years but did not graduate from the university"...WTF?

Found this while idly googling reasons why Jim Murphy is a dick:

http://www.parliament.uk/edm/1995-96/991

eugh.

hate him.

given that the majority of the country has only just voted against independence.

Not by a large majority, though, and in many seat the No lead was relatively slim.

If all the Yes vote went to the SNP but the No vote split three ways, the SNP would sweep the board, just about.

Egad, what scum is Murphy? (xxpost). I was corrected about his 9 years at Strathclyde without gaining a degree. It was actually 11 years! He took two gap years in that time.

I think it's important to recognise that a vote for the SNP in a General Election isn't necessarily a vote in favour of Scottish independence. Jim Murphy is an utterly useless twunt and the Labour party is deserving of its current scorn so the SNP would probably be my default if the Green party didn't exist, but I still haven't decided if I support independence or not.

In other news I am so over Wings Scotland, Bella Union, the 45%, etc. I've deleted my Twitter and I'm ready to delete my Facebook because I'm fed up of griping and hanging on, as opposed to moving on.

Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.

general erection

Any minds changed after the oil prices dropping? Did it matter that much?

Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.
― everything, Friday, 17 April 2015 20:43 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think he knew which was the wind was blowing when he stood as SLab leader - guaranteed another lucrative job after the next Scottish election.

true but i doubt he thought the wind was blowing quite so strongly, certainly not enough to lose his seat. although of course and sadly i agree on your latter point.

Was at a Common Weal event last night and one of the speakers (think it was Elaine C Smith) said that Scotland is a different country post-referendum. Seems otm, as they say round here

So can someone walk me through what needs to happen/who needs to agree for there to be another referendum?

Hell freezing over?

I'd say Scottish independence looks a near certainty now. The combination of total SNP victory and Tory government...

The divide is too strong to ignore now, surely.

Supposedly we're having a referendum on the European Union, so God knows how they'll fit in another Scottish referendum.

It's unlikely this year - there's no mandate for it. The SNP explicitly campaigned that an SNP vote was NOT a vote for independence but to keep the Tories out. I think a referendum would follow the 2016 Holyrood election, which could well be done explicitly as a "vote for us and we'll get independence".

A lot hangs on what will happen between now and then. The Tories are making noises about full fiscal autonomy for Scotland; what they mean is scrapping Barnett and hugely reducing funding for Scotland.

SNP put it on manifesto for 2016 Scottish elections.
SNP win election.
SNP negotiate terms etc with Westminster.
Referendum vote.

^^^so not gonna happen

Doesn't matter what the SNP want, it's up to the Tories.