Your 2016 Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

the bushes are actually one of the few major u.s. political dynasties i can think of, in recent history at least

They've definitely surpassed the Longs of Louisiana.

Landrieus
Nunns
Rufus T Fireflys

at the national level - Kennedys, Roosevelts, Adamses

get down to the state level and there's tons

I hadn't been paying attention so I don't know if it's new info, but Jeb's official declaration of interest in the presidency is hugely depressing. Plenty of the people disgusted with a black president will be equally disgusted by the idea of a female president. And he has a name that they've heard before. He should coast to victory.

Hey, I'm a descendant of Daniel Webster, I should probably run in ten years or so. DYNASTY.

Jeb's gonna have some of the same issues Mittens had w the base in the primary, but he doesn't seem as awkward/weird so that's in his favor. I'd put money on him taking the nomination though.

Obama just solved Jeb's big immigration reform problem by giving him a way to dodge and derail and redirect questions about his position. So, yes, the nomination now becomes Jeb's to lose. Christie is gnashing his teeth.

I look forward to this parade of bozos - Christie, Jeb, Perry - trying to dig up dirt on/trip up each other. The resulting nomination will be as revolting as ever but the process will be entertaining.

I do kind of wonder how hard his opponents are going to go after his family record

whether Jeb or HRC wins i srsly think we shd fuck shit up

jeb's big establishment competition is christie who the base hate even more (that's unless romney gets in which is unlikely unless they both flounder and the gop get desperate) while the wingnuts will split the vote between themselves like they always do. that on paper should give him the best path to victory.

but i think his biggest problem is actually that's he not run in a campaign since 2002. he's going to be very rusty and could well end up a paper tiger. one of the reasons hillary did her book tour this summer and campaigned these midterms was to overcome that problem, and 2002 feels like ancient history compared to 2008.

i'd probably put money on walker, as he looks the best person to overcome the tea party/establishment divide, but then again he's a charisma vacuum.

lack of charisma not a huge impediment when you look at some prez nominees, esp the losing ones

Yeah, Mittens seemed like a hapless Home Depot store manager.

my money is on bobby jindal. he is very charismatic

I mean look at Poppy Bush v Dukakis, that was an election where we were up to our ankles in charisma

one of the reasons hillary did her book tour this summer and campaigned these midterms was to overcome that problem

I heard this on the morning shows but nothing I saw looked like she'd shaken any cobwebs.

agree charisma isn't generally too much of an impediment, but with the most wide open gop field in decades it could be easy to get lost in the shuffle. especially when paul and christie and cruz will take up so much oxygen.

Hillary simply doesn't have the common touch - she's always been super-stiff

xp

like I can't picture Hillary speaking convincingly and extemporaneously about anything

her stock portfolio and cookie recipes

she's not a really talented liar like her husband and Obama

p much

Obama is a much more talented and fluent liar than Clinton...and actually Obama's done what he promised to do except close Gitmo.

i.e. neoliberalism with many more sops to progressivism than Clinton accomplished

I would venture that Hillary's chances hinge almost entirely on how well she can motivate enthusiasm among women to vote for her as the first woman president. she has no policies or values that are going to win over a majority, it's gonna be this identity politics aspect that makes or breaks her. it's going to be all about how well she connects with women and whether or not she can unify them as a voting bloc. which, given the actual politics and voting patterns of women and Hillary's shortcomings as a candidate, is not going to be easy.

not closing gitmo is more congress's fault, isn't it?

Alfred's estimation of O pretty otm imo

xp

I don't know where to start with that, but you should talk to my labor organizer friend who remebers O saying he'd be the first prez to walk a picket line in a strike.

I mean, Clinton didn't once beguile me in his glory days – and I don't say it in a sanctimonious way. He looked phony and oozed sincerity that I find repulsive in people and politicians. The only time I got his reputation was at the '12 convention.

i like the idea of an elizabeth warren presidency

sorry, if by some miracle we elected a prez who vowed to "Move the ball" he/she would never live to January 20 and yes I really believe that. Look elsewhere.

(or like me, accept the inevitable)

xp

warren, even if elected, would be forced to the status of a placeholder

idk she seems pretty fucking capable

in any case, she's my candidate. i'm not voting for a clinton. i voted green in 2012 and will do so again if i don't like the candidate.*

* i don't dislike obama as far as democrats go, and don't regret my 2008 vote, but i couldn't abide all the pointless killing

This election will be primetime for third-party candidates.

she seems pretty fucking capable

atm no one can move the senate to do anything in almost any direction, and the house is an even harder nut to bust if you don't have wingnut cred.

yeah that's why she should run for president.

she can do more good in the senate

like take a principled stand against the banks before losing the vote

when the Dems retake the Senate in 2016 she will be in line for powerful committee/legislation-writing positions

Is Jeb Bush Too Liberal To Win The Republican Nomination In 2016?

may god have mercy on our souls

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/silver-datalab-jeb-1.png?w=610&h=916

lol at Paul's disparity between statements and voting record

interesting, in that chart, that rand paul's public issue statements are rated as the 3rd least conservative, and his public voting record as the most conservative by far.

xpost yep

And Santorum's public statement bark outweighing his voting record bite. Interesting chart.

that's why she should run for president

I have no objection to warren being president, but this doesn't change the fact that, without any leverage over congress, she'd be a reduced to a placeholder. just being president doesn't ensure you can accomplish much, unless you can command enough votes in congress.

guys she would never win. never.

why because $$$

maybe she can apologize to wall street the day before she announces her candidacy