Oscars 2015

It won the WGA and the BAFTA, so it's not that daring.

I def think GBH is winning at least 3 or 4. Just not the big ones.

just do what i do and read wikipedia pages about obscure soviet apparatchiks killed in stalin's purges

― I dunno. (amateurist)

what I was reading about last week: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marozia

4th of Harris' 5 prediction columns:

http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/oscar-predictions-part-4-the-acting-categories/

most entertainingly headsploding result of the night wd be Citizenfour for doc, Am Sniper for, well let's say best actor.

also hadn't realized before reading E's piece today that the best actresses' films only got ONE other nomination total.

http://www.slantmagazine.com/house/article/oscar-winner-predictions-2015-actress

That's not exactly what I was saying. I was saying the three actresses who are most dominant in their film (i.e. most screen time) only got one other nod. Useless Jones' movie got 5 nods.

ok got it

(drugged)

Which, at the risk of incriminating myself, isn't to say that those clamoring for a solution to the problem are any less toxic, diminishing the merits of Moore's valiant, stricken performance in Still Alice as though it's a crime against humanity that she's going to collect her overdue Oscar for a disease-of-the-month melodrama and not for, say, flashing her bush in Robert Altman's Short Cuts or telling Marky Mark where he can put his money shot in Boogie Nights. Many refuse to examine the ways Moore, a dependably controlling performer, wrestles with the material, and how that struggle enriches the plight of her character facing early-onset Alzheimer's disease. And they're the same ones endorsing Cotillard (perfectly fine in a role that mainly asks her to cry and collapse) simply by virtue of her appearing in a more respectable film, engaging in an equally deleterious practice of equating "best actress" with "any female performer who happens to appear in the movie I'm the least embarrassed to be talking about."

otm

also: cranky because an hour ago I had written something similar

I'm cranky because Mark Harris basically started to make the exact same points as I did and then said, "but that's for another time." X(

last of a Fandor series: aternate Oscars, this one post-1980s

https://www.fandor.com/keyframe/the-alt-oscars-and-now-for-the-nominees

Mark Harris' final predictions. Best Picture essay worth reading:

http://grantland.com/hollywood-prospectus/final-oscar-predictions-who-will-win-on-sunday/

does Robin, Shirley or Mickey win the obit montage?

oh, Temple died before last year's Oscars, PSH too

Academy member John Boorman on Boyhood:

What have you liked that you’ve seen lately?

Of course I’m voting [for the Oscars], so I’ve seen everything that’s around. I have to say that in the foreign language category, there are three films — “Timbuktu,” “Leviathan” and “Ida” — that are head and shoulders above anything in the English-speaking film world. They’re magnificent films. Daring and full of conviction.

What do you think of the films that are in the best picture race?

“Birdman” is a fascinating film, made with some of the daring that I was missing elsewhere. “Boyhood” seems to be the front-runner, it won every critics award, but I was a bit disappointed in it because the boy turned out to be rather uninteresting. His sister was much more interesting, but we don’t see much of her. All the things that boys get up to in my experience as a father, like not doing their homework and smoking and getting into fights, none of that seemed to happen to this kid.

most entertainingly headsploding result of the night wd be /Citizenfour/ for doc, /Am Sniper/ for, well let's say best actor.
--touch of a love-starved cobra (Dr Morbius)

entirely possible - if nowhere near a lock - that this happens, tbh.

John Boorman overestimates Ida

and Birdman.

I read a bit of speculation, are people really so dumb that they are actually arguing that it matters which way the 2- and 3- favorites will be checked? If a film need 50% of the vote to win, then it doesn't matter. There can't both be 50% with Birdman over Boyhood, and 50% with Boyhood over Birdman.

It means that, for people who put movies that aren't Boy or Bird at #1, they still have votes that matter.

well The Times clearly has itself a crystal ball judging from the Julianna Moore Best Actress splash at the top of the page

http://40.media.tumblr.com/730a781054a3f31795019cf22ae0c17d/tumblr_nk58np1ZxU1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg

It means that, for people who put movies that aren't Boy or Bird at #1, they still have votes that matter.

― poxy fülvous (abanana), 22. februar 2015 08:20 (6 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Right, that's not what I'm talking about. But some of the pundits are saying, that if Selma and Theory of Everything are the nominees with least support, then since their #2 votes will be added first, the big question is which film those voters also liked. But that is nonsense. Birdboy might be in a tight race, but they can't both be in front of the other on 51% of the ballots, no matter which way they are counted.

Right?

tried to find Eric's "Birdman's not winning best picture" post

he's read the tea though

I'm sure it was in detrius somewhere.

I'm not predicting the director/pic split either.

Argo years aside, you never should. Which is what screwed everyone out of perfect scores last year.

drinking rules, anyone?

Don't drive.

Boorman otm about boyhood

Not sure I needed mason to smoke and punch per se, but his placidity made the film anticlimactic

my favorite present-day Mason scene isn't with the girl in the desert but the one in the bar where he listens to his dad with affection and mild teen contempt babble on and on about Charlie Sexton.

I was like, "Mason Jr. otm"

Oh yeah I really appreciated seeing him lose a little esteem for his dad with maturity.

i don't think i have any way to watch the whorefest tonight, and im ok with that.

watch it on your Morbsphone.

"they can't both be in front of the other on 51% of the ballots" is right.
"the big question is which film those voters also liked. But that is nonsense." is wrong. prognosticators are used to the american voting system, and having to take everyone's opinion into account requires a mental adjustment.

Okay, I try again. The nonsensical part is focusing especially on Selma and Theory of Everything, as if Birdboy could create a majority through those votes, while Boyman would have the majority if the votes from American Sniper and Whiplash were counted instead. But there can only be a majority for one film, so it doesn't matter which way they are counted.

I want Boyman to win lots of awards, and I've cleared the night, so I'll watch the whole show, which I haven't done for a few years. (I generally listen while piddling around on the computer in the adjacent room.) When Birdman wins, I'll be sure to already dislike it when I finally get around to seeing it.

Boyman a better title for the Innaritu picture.

Boyz II Menhood.

Julianna Moore is the most forgone Best Actress conclusion since.. when? Hilary Swank in '99 maybe.

the most forgone Best Actress winner since Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine.

can't remember the last time there was a shock win in this damn thing.

Jennifer Lawrence was a surprise in that you'd have thought they would've waited a few years and noms before she'd get something.

mm yeah. although i thought she was p amazing in SLP.

➻ BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

I didn't get around to seeing any of them. You want the truth? I shouldn't have voted, but I did. This is bad, but here's the power of advertising: everywhere I looked, I saw pictures of this stupid carcass — whatever the fuck that was — and I thought, "That's a cool-looking thing." And I fucking voted for a movie based on the dead whatever it was in the ad thinking that it looked cool. [laughs]

MY VOTE: Leviathan

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/brutally-honest-oscar-ballot-no-773905?mobile_redirect=false

"The Gutillard girl"

Oh, yeah. I read those. The Hollywood Reporter interviewed several academy members about who they voted for and why, and kept them anonymous. The responses included, openly and explicitly:

Points off for "not liking" a main character
Points off for not being as likely to win (well, who wants to vote for a loser?)
Points off for "being tired of" an actor, especially if they've won before
Points off for "not getting it" (defensible, actually)
Points off if the cast came to a publicity event with "I can't breathe" t-shirts
Points off for "not showing what a character feels"
Points off an actors performance if they didn't like the movie apart from the performance
Points off if a character is a bad model
Points off for being "britishy"
Points off if the subject of a documentary is (personally) "annoying"
Points given for an actor who has less chance of winning in the future
Points given for a movie that "shows that people will go [to movies] if you put something out that they want to see (was successful)
Points given for liking an actor in the interviews they've done, for another actor who's "humble and endearing" in real life
Points given in one category if they felt the movie was snubbed in another category