lol so tawdry. "You and I both know you are never going to vote for us because you actually want us or our policies... but hey it could be worse!"
― sktsh, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 22:08 (nine years ago) link
Excellent spectator piece on the ramifications:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9453802/why-an-snp-surge-at-westminster-could-mean-the-end-of-britain/
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Wednesday, 4 March 2015 22:18 (nine years ago) link
"But we're not the Tories" has been Labour's mantra for well over a decade now, don't expect them to stop now.
Even allowing for the concentration of constituencies in urban areas, I can't see where that 56-seat number is going to come from, given that the majority of the country has only just voted against independence. So either Murphy is especially toxic or they are expecting lower turnout, with the SNP vote out in force everywhere.
― Matt DC, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:06 (nine years ago) link
Massie's piece is interesting, but I really don't buy notion that the SNP want the Tories in because it'll make another independence referendum more likely. Cameron won't be likely to offer Scotland many concessions and the Scottish Government won't relish the prospect of having to deal with cuts in the Barnett Formula and any other measures designed to put us uppity Scots in our place. Sturgeon has clearly stated that while the ultimate goal is independence, their immediate aim is to win Scotland better representation in Westminster and push an anti-austerity agenda across the UK. I'm also not sure she would want another referendum in the next Holyrood term - too soon, too risky. The Labour line about the Tories rubbing their hands at the prospect of Labour losing its Scottish seats is disingenous - the Tories are worried about the SNP because of the threat the represent to the union and the status quo. Hence Tories talking about tactically voting for Labour to keep out the SNP.
― Poor.Old.Tired.Horse. (Stew), Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:13 (nine years ago) link
X-post - I suspect it's exactly that - low turn out, SNP out in force.
My incumbent Labour MP is fairly chronic, I'd be hoping to see him gone regardless.
Murphy's surely aware of his own logic fail though, voting Labour in the 2010 election hardly kept Cameron out of No 10.
― michaellambert, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:16 (nine years ago) link
I don't think the SNP will get as many as 56 seats, but it's clear there's going to be a bit of a Labour rout, and not before time. No voters will vote for the SNP too - as John Curtis has argued, the referendum campaign was effectively a two year advertisement for the SNP. Everyone knows what their policies are and recognise their competency - unlike Labour, who can't make their mind up about anything and committed political suicide by campaigning alongside the Tories in the referendum campaign. If they'd had a separate Labour for No campaign they wouldn't be in such a dire state.
― Poor.Old.Tired.Horse. (Stew), Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:17 (nine years ago) link
xpostFrom my experience of the last eight years living in Glasgow, Scottish Labour are almost EXACTLY like the Tories - complacent and stupid. Since the referendum, polling has shown that if it were to happen again, the Yes vote would now win. So I think there's an element of voter remorse on the part of No voters here.
― sʌxihɔːl (Ward Fowler), Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:18 (nine years ago) link
Turnout will be a lot lower than the referendum and the demographics of who is eligible are different. No idea how that will translate but I suspect it will help the SNP as their support seems a lot more engaged.
― everything, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:20 (nine years ago) link
I'm not sure we should place too much stock on those "how would you vote now" polls, as there's nothing really at stake. But there's no doubt that whether people support independence or not, they recognise the SNP as Scotland's best representative and want rid of the complacent and corrupt right-wing SLab MPs who have failed the country. A minority Lab government backed by SNP, Greens, Plaid etc will be far better for the UK as a whole than a Lab majority.
― Poor.Old.Tired.Horse. (Stew), Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:25 (nine years ago) link
All that, plus Murphy really is toxic.
― ailsa, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:40 (nine years ago) link
Yet he's one of the three non-SNPs projected to win in this poll! He'll the the only SLab MP in Westminster which is pretty funny really.
― everything, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:43 (nine years ago) link
Murphy is my MP. He will hold his seat. I wish this were not the case.
― calumerio, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:47 (nine years ago) link
I was sure he was at Strathclyde Uni at the same time as me and sure enough I checked and it's true, however wikipedia sez "He was a student at Strathclyde for 9 years but did not graduate from the university"...WTF?
― everything, Wednesday, 4 March 2015 23:52 (nine years ago) link
Found this while idly googling reasons why Jim Murphy is a dick:
http://www.parliament.uk/edm/1995-96/991
― ailsa, Thursday, 5 March 2015 00:21 (nine years ago) link
eugh.
hate him.
― Rave Van Donk (jim in glasgow), Thursday, 5 March 2015 00:25 (nine years ago) link
given that the majority of the country has only just voted against independence.
Not by a large majority, though, and in many seat the No lead was relatively slim.
If all the Yes vote went to the SNP but the No vote split three ways, the SNP would sweep the board, just about.
― stet, Thursday, 5 March 2015 01:58 (nine years ago) link
Egad, what scum is Murphy? (xxpost). I was corrected about his 9 years at Strathclyde without gaining a degree. It was actually 11 years! He took two gap years in that time.
― everything, Thursday, 5 March 2015 05:22 (nine years ago) link
I think it's important to recognise that a vote for the SNP in a General Election isn't necessarily a vote in favour of Scottish independence. Jim Murphy is an utterly useless twunt and the Labour party is deserving of its current scorn so the SNP would probably be my default if the Green party didn't exist, but I still haven't decided if I support independence or not.
In other news I am so over Wings Scotland, Bella Union, the 45%, etc. I've deleted my Twitter and I'm ready to delete my Facebook because I'm fed up of griping and hanging on, as opposed to moving on.
― boxedjoy, Thursday, 5 March 2015 13:06 (nine years ago) link
Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.
― everything, Friday, 17 April 2015 19:43 (nine years ago) link
general erection
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Friday, 17 April 2015 23:17 (nine years ago) link
Any minds changed after the oil prices dropping? Did it matter that much?
― Robert Adam Gilmour, Friday, 17 April 2015 23:29 (nine years ago) link
Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.― everything, Friday, 17 April 2015 20:43 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
I think he knew which was the wind was blowing when he stood as SLab leader - guaranteed another lucrative job after the next Scottish election.
― no way no way sna sna (onimo), Friday, 17 April 2015 23:43 (nine years ago) link
true but i doubt he thought the wind was blowing quite so strongly, certainly not enough to lose his seat. although of course and sadly i agree on your latter point.
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Saturday, 18 April 2015 00:37 (nine years ago) link
Was at a Common Weal event last night and one of the speakers (think it was Elaine C Smith) said that Scotland is a different country post-referendum. Seems otm, as they say round here
― paolo, Saturday, 18 April 2015 12:40 (nine years ago) link
So can someone walk me through what needs to happen/who needs to agree for there to be another referendum?
― Insane Prince of False Binaries (Gukbe), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:40 (nine years ago) link
Hell freezing over?
― Cram Session in Goniometry (Tom D.), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:42 (nine years ago) link
I'd say Scottish independence looks a near certainty now. The combination of total SNP victory and Tory government...
― (Meme From) Essex Press (Nasty, Brutish & Short), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:43 (nine years ago) link
The divide is too strong to ignore now, surely.
― Insane Prince of False Binaries (Gukbe), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:43 (nine years ago) link
Supposedly we're having a referendum on the European Union, so God knows how they'll fit in another Scottish referendum.
― Cram Session in Goniometry (Tom D.), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:44 (nine years ago) link
It's unlikely this year - there's no mandate for it. The SNP explicitly campaigned that an SNP vote was NOT a vote for independence but to keep the Tories out. I think a referendum would follow the 2016 Holyrood election, which could well be done explicitly as a "vote for us and we'll get independence".
A lot hangs on what will happen between now and then. The Tories are making noises about full fiscal autonomy for Scotland; what they mean is scrapping Barnett and hugely reducing funding for Scotland.
― stet, Friday, 8 May 2015 01:44 (nine years ago) link
SNP put it on manifesto for 2016 Scottish elections. SNP win election.SNP negotiate terms etc with Westminster.Referendum vote.
^^^so not gonna happen
― mea nulta (onimo), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:45 (nine years ago) link
Doesn't matter what the SNP want, it's up to the Tories.
― Cram Session in Goniometry (Tom D.), Friday, 8 May 2015 01:45 (nine years ago) link
Holyrood could hold the referendum. If Westminster wanted to ignore the result we really would be in constitutional crisis territory
― stet, Friday, 8 May 2015 01:47 (nine years ago) link
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/may/09/david-cameron-labour-scotland-europe-john-redwood
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/923/0055551.pdfp34
― nakhchivan, Sunday, 10 May 2015 23:08 (nine years ago) link
Lord Arson is back on the Labour front bench. Unbelievable barrel scraping.
lets not forget
"He was imprisoned after social assessment concluded that there was a significant risk of his re-offending".
" In a statement, a Labour spokesman said: "Mr Watson has been expelled from the Labour Party.
"His sentence illustrates that if you commit a serious crime in Scotland, no matter who you are, you must face the consequences. That is right."
― Cosmic Slop, Friday, 18 September 2015 20:31 (nine years ago) link
Who's Lord Arson what is it you're talking about?
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Friday, 18 September 2015 20:46 (nine years ago) link
Lord Watson
― Cosmic Slop, Friday, 18 September 2015 20:50 (nine years ago) link
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4269808.stm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34288573
Jeremy Corbyn has finalised his frontbench line-up, appointing a peer jailed for arson to his education team.Lord Watson - a former MP and MSP - was given a 16-month jail sentence in 2005 for starting a fire at an Edinburgh hotel. He was suspended from the party, but regained the whip in 2012.
Lord Watson - a former MP and MSP - was given a 16-month jail sentence in 2005 for starting a fire at an Edinburgh hotel. He was suspended from the party, but regained the whip in 2012.
― Cosmic Slop, Friday, 18 September 2015 20:51 (nine years ago) link
Ah. Thanks for the clarification.
― Acting Crazy (Instrumental) (jed_), Friday, 18 September 2015 21:34 (nine years ago) link
i agree that nobody who commits a crime should ever be allowed to hold public office ever again
― bellendery hooks (Noodle Vague), Friday, 18 September 2015 21:37 (nine years ago) link
What's this got to do with the Scottish indyref?
― ailsa, Saturday, 19 September 2015 07:18 (nine years ago) link
burning bridges
― Robert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento (nakhchivan), Saturday, 19 September 2015 10:27 (nine years ago) link
so i guess it's time to dig this thread out again eh
― im a male feminist, i have a fleshlight just to eat it out (bizarro gazzara), Monday, 13 March 2017 12:51 (seven years ago) link
Current polling is on 49%, and if the campaign gives that a bump half that it got in the last one, Yes will romp home.
Who will stand against this time? The Tories are going to have a fun time squaring the justification for Brexit against the justification for independence, while simultaneously playing down a border in Ireland and playing up a border in Scotland, while claiming Scotland won't be able to trade with England its biggest partner while claiming England will be able to trade with the EU, its biggest partner.
Labour? It's going to amount to a single-man Project Fear from Blair McDougall saying the numbers don't add up because the oil price has sunk forever and ever and also there's no way Scotland will ever trade with England again. Maybe Brown will make another speech.
― stet, Monday, 13 March 2017 12:59 (seven years ago) link
that hard time squaring justifications is already rearing its head. No10 sez:
Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time.
― lazy rascals, spending their substance, and more, in riotous living (Merdeyeux), Monday, 13 March 2017 13:11 (seven years ago) link
Everything hinges on what the EU says and does, right? If 'Independence, but outside the EU' looks like the most likely option then I can see a No vote again. If the option to stay in the EU is explicitly on the table then Yes will win comfortably.
― Matt DC, Monday, 13 March 2017 13:24 (seven years ago) link
It almost certainly will be on the table. Which will again leave No trying simultaneously to say England matters most to Scotland for trade so it can't leave and that England will get a trade deal so Brexit will be fine.
The timing is perfect; it might be the factor that turns what has always been a pretty unlikely thing really into a reality.
― stet, Monday, 13 March 2017 13:29 (seven years ago) link
Come on first ever four letter country code
― El Tomboto, Monday, 13 March 2017 13:36 (seven years ago) link
Unnamed diplomat says Scot entry a "slam dunk" https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/this-is-how-the-eu-will-handle-theresa-mays-triggering-of-ar?utm_term=.rbYy53al0#.wvQgblVeJ
― stet, Monday, 13 March 2017 13:37 (seven years ago) link