the scottish independence referendum

I don't think the SNP will get as many as 56 seats, but it's clear there's going to be a bit of a Labour rout, and not before time. No voters will vote for the SNP too - as John Curtis has argued, the referendum campaign was effectively a two year advertisement for the SNP. Everyone knows what their policies are and recognise their competency - unlike Labour, who can't make their mind up about anything and committed political suicide by campaigning alongside the Tories in the referendum campaign. If they'd had a separate Labour for No campaign they wouldn't be in such a dire state.

xpost
From my experience of the last eight years living in Glasgow, Scottish Labour are almost EXACTLY like the Tories - complacent and stupid. Since the referendum, polling has shown that if it were to happen again, the Yes vote would now win. So I think there's an element of voter remorse on the part of No voters here.

Turnout will be a lot lower than the referendum and the demographics of who is eligible are different. No idea how that will translate but I suspect it will help the SNP as their support seems a lot more engaged.

I'm not sure we should place too much stock on those "how would you vote now" polls, as there's nothing really at stake. But there's no doubt that whether people support independence or not, they recognise the SNP as Scotland's best representative and want rid of the complacent and corrupt right-wing SLab MPs who have failed the country. A minority Lab government backed by SNP, Greens, Plaid etc will be far better for the UK as a whole than a Lab majority.

All that, plus Murphy really is toxic.

Yet he's one of the three non-SNPs projected to win in this poll! He'll the the only SLab MP in Westminster which is pretty funny really.

Murphy is my MP. He will hold his seat. I wish this were not the case.

I was sure he was at Strathclyde Uni at the same time as me and sure enough I checked and it's true, however wikipedia sez "He was a student at Strathclyde for 9 years but did not graduate from the university"...WTF?

Found this while idly googling reasons why Jim Murphy is a dick:

http://www.parliament.uk/edm/1995-96/991

eugh.

hate him.

given that the majority of the country has only just voted against independence.

Not by a large majority, though, and in many seat the No lead was relatively slim.

If all the Yes vote went to the SNP but the No vote split three ways, the SNP would sweep the board, just about.

Egad, what scum is Murphy? (xxpost). I was corrected about his 9 years at Strathclyde without gaining a degree. It was actually 11 years! He took two gap years in that time.

I think it's important to recognise that a vote for the SNP in a General Election isn't necessarily a vote in favour of Scottish independence. Jim Murphy is an utterly useless twunt and the Labour party is deserving of its current scorn so the SNP would probably be my default if the Green party didn't exist, but I still haven't decided if I support independence or not.

In other news I am so over Wings Scotland, Bella Union, the 45%, etc. I've deleted my Twitter and I'm ready to delete my Facebook because I'm fed up of griping and hanging on, as opposed to moving on.

Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.

general erection

Any minds changed after the oil prices dropping? Did it matter that much?

Murphy currently polling 9 points behind in his constituency. pmsl as they say.
― everything, Friday, 17 April 2015 20:43 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think he knew which was the wind was blowing when he stood as SLab leader - guaranteed another lucrative job after the next Scottish election.

true but i doubt he thought the wind was blowing quite so strongly, certainly not enough to lose his seat. although of course and sadly i agree on your latter point.

Was at a Common Weal event last night and one of the speakers (think it was Elaine C Smith) said that Scotland is a different country post-referendum. Seems otm, as they say round here

So can someone walk me through what needs to happen/who needs to agree for there to be another referendum?

Hell freezing over?

I'd say Scottish independence looks a near certainty now. The combination of total SNP victory and Tory government...

The divide is too strong to ignore now, surely.

Supposedly we're having a referendum on the European Union, so God knows how they'll fit in another Scottish referendum.

It's unlikely this year - there's no mandate for it. The SNP explicitly campaigned that an SNP vote was NOT a vote for independence but to keep the Tories out. I think a referendum would follow the 2016 Holyrood election, which could well be done explicitly as a "vote for us and we'll get independence".

A lot hangs on what will happen between now and then. The Tories are making noises about full fiscal autonomy for Scotland; what they mean is scrapping Barnett and hugely reducing funding for Scotland.

SNP put it on manifesto for 2016 Scottish elections.
SNP win election.
SNP negotiate terms etc with Westminster.
Referendum vote.

^^^so not gonna happen

Doesn't matter what the SNP want, it's up to the Tories.

Holyrood could hold the referendum. If Westminster wanted to ignore the result we really would be in constitutional crisis territory

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2015/may/09/david-cameron-labour-scotland-europe-john-redwood

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/923/0055551.pdf
p34

Lord Arson is back on the Labour front bench. Unbelievable barrel scraping.

lets not forget

"He was imprisoned after social assessment concluded that there was a significant risk of his re-offending".

" In a statement, a Labour spokesman said: "Mr Watson has been expelled from the Labour Party.

"His sentence illustrates that if you commit a serious crime in Scotland, no matter who you are, you must face the consequences. That is right."

Who's Lord Arson what is it you're talking about?

Lord Watson

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4269808.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34288573

Jeremy Corbyn has finalised his frontbench line-up, appointing a peer jailed for arson to his education team.

Lord Watson - a former MP and MSP - was given a 16-month jail sentence in 2005 for starting a fire at an Edinburgh hotel. He was suspended from the party, but regained the whip in 2012.

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

i agree that nobody who commits a crime should ever be allowed to hold public office ever again

What's this got to do with the Scottish indyref?

burning bridges

so i guess it's time to dig this thread out again eh

Current polling is on 49%, and if the campaign gives that a bump half that it got in the last one, Yes will romp home.

Who will stand against this time? The Tories are going to have a fun time squaring the justification for Brexit against the justification for independence, while simultaneously playing down a border in Ireland and playing up a border in Scotland, while claiming Scotland won't be able to trade with England its biggest partner while claiming England will be able to trade with the EU, its biggest partner.

Labour? It's going to amount to a single-man Project Fear from Blair McDougall saying the numbers don't add up because the oil price has sunk forever and ever and also there's no way Scotland will ever trade with England again. Maybe Brown will make another speech.

that hard time squaring justifications is already rearing its head. No10 sez:

Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time.

Everything hinges on what the EU says and does, right? If 'Independence, but outside the EU' looks like the most likely option then I can see a No vote again. If the option to stay in the EU is explicitly on the table then Yes will win comfortably.

It almost certainly will be on the table. Which will again leave No trying simultaneously to say England matters most to Scotland for trade so it can't leave and that England will get a trade deal so Brexit will be fine.

The timing is perfect; it might be the factor that turns what has always been a pretty unlikely thing really into a reality.

Come on first ever four letter country code

Unnamed diplomat says Scot entry a "slam dunk" https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/this-is-how-the-eu-will-handle-theresa-mays-triggering-of-ar?utm_term=.rbYy53al0#.wvQgblVeJ

so what happens when no 10 says (as i suspect they almost certainly will) 'fuck off' to a second referendum?

They go ahead and hold it anyway?

is "scotland breaks away and stays in the eu" something all 27 members have to assent to? bcz aren't some of them (spain) pretty hinky abt the implications for their own polity of secessions from the union

the salience of Project-Fear-type argts will be interesting over the next couple of years -- if brexit turns out bad (which sturgeon is sure somewhat counting on) then PF-type argt will presumably gain somewhat in told-you-so force,* even tho intricate (but correct) economic argt have not had a good run against cultural argts recently (including in Indy1, in fact: the claims Yes brought to the table re how it wd pay for itself were kinda garbage-y, but pointing this out didn't seem to register significantly among reasons for the final vote)

*even when wielded by those who formerly mocked them: squaring contradictory arguments is after all what strong politicians do (i don't think may is a strong politician; ruth davidson remains to be tested tbh)

Spain may have strong politicians, though - joining the EU because you love it more than the country you're seceding from is possibly sufficiently different from Catalan's situation.

i vaguely remember reading that spain has shifted on this anyway (scotland, not catalan): but are there other member nations it's an issue for

this doesn't matter if you don't have to get all 27 ducks in a row, of course

strikes me the situation can be leveraged by the eu negotiators: "we offer the rump uk this better trade deal if and only scotland is allowed its referendum with a view to staying in the eu" (tho there may be reasons this isn't allowed)