Your 2016 Presidential Candidate Speculation Thread

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/05/13/college-student-to-jeb-bush-your-brother-created-isis/

nyt link to it

Hillary tweets:

Hillary Clinton ‏@HillaryClinton May 7

Stand with Hillary if you agree it’s time for criminal justice reform. Add your name!

In private conversations, Mr. Bush’s allies have often taken note that his brother’s approval ratings among likely primary and caucus voters are sky high.

this is kind of incredible tbh, I had thought the base had disowned Dubya as a RINO what with his deficit-busting spending etc.

social justice apple pie

breaking

Talking Points Memo ‏@TPM 13s13 seconds ago
Jeb Bush now says he "would not have gone into Iraq"

whew that's over

but will he go into North Korea is the question

Hillary Clinton ‏@HillaryClinton May 7

Stand with Hillary if you agree it’s time for criminal justice reform. Add your name!

― Οὖτις, Thursday, May 14, 2015 1:42 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is really quite amazing good news tbh

flip-flops coming into style early this year eh

xp

re: criminal justice reform

I trust Hillary about as far as I can throw her in terms of what she'll actually do when elected BUT I am really glad that she looks willing to keep this issue in the national spotlight

yeah its just somewhat heartening how the dem consensus has has shifted over the course of the clinton dynasty from being all in on racist tough on crime policies to recognizing that that was a bad idea, the political context matters more than the individual politicians

i suspect were only beginning to see a shift in politics resulting from the drop in crime that started 20 years ago, this is part of that, legal weed is part of that, policy obvs a lagging indicator

of course if bill had just not cooperated with republicans out of short sited political maneuvering then there wld be a lot less work to be done now, but we dont all have time machines like J.E.B.

right is likely to argue that that drop in crime is precisely due to draconian policing policies/3 strikes laws etc. originally endorsed and passed by Bubba.

Interesting parallels between Bubba and Dubya in relation to Hillary and Jeb - how much will each be willing to disown the other, and how will they do that. Seems obvious that Bill's gonna have to publicly admit he got some things wrong (gay marriage, possibly financial deregulation, etc.)

xxp

the crime rate history is interesting to me - what were the causes of the big spike in the 70s, was it all just related to streets being awash in heroin (and later crack)? I know economic downturns usually result in spikes in the crime rate but feel like there must have been more to it than that.

this theory sounds screwy but really makes too much sense http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline

and none of the other theories stand up to any scrutiny

i mean like obvs its a lot of stuff but imo lead is prob the missing link

Basic theory on the 70s crime spike was that the streets were awash with 20-something young men because of baby boom reaching peak in circa 1952-55.

Probably also the War On Drugs doing the same kind of good the War On Terror is now doing.

Kevin Drum has a wild theory about lead in paint. No joke.

that lead thing is fascinating and sounds familiar - was that posted here before?

xp

The other factors (spike in population, the end of the mid twentieth century migration from country to city, etc) were important too, but lead in paint made people sadistic.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline

Basic theory on the 70s crime spike was that the streets were awash with 20-something young men because of baby boom reaching peak in circa 1952-55.

― Aimless, Thursday, May 14, 2015 2:05 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

and the 70s crime boom continued into the 1990s unabated through all sorts of dips and spikes in the birth rate

that lead thing is fascinating and sounds familiar - was that posted here before?

― Οὖτις, Thursday, May 14, 2015 2:10 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

we def talked abt it before somewhere on this dang board

I blame the crime boom on repeated, prolonged exposure to Ronald Reagan imo

lol

twentieth century migration from country to city, etc were important too

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, May 14, 2015 2:10 PM (58 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

crime boom also persisted as ppl fled the cities because of crime

yeah but Alfred that link isn't about lead paint, it's about leaded gasoline

lead + abortion + crack decline probably the magic trifecta

abortion theory is total garbage and has been debunked so many times freaknomics is plain trash, its doesnt even correlate lol

Also stellar moral example provided by Nixon administration.

lol wait abortion leads to crime? i r confused

link me to where it has been debunked? it's controversial to claim it's totally responsible but i've seen strong evidence that there is a correlation vis-a-vis early adopters of legal abortion?

yeah but Alfred that link isn't about lead paint, it's about leaded gasoline

― Οὖτις,

My mistake. I hadn't read the article in a while.

the freaknomics book had a chapter theorizing that the legalization of abortion lead to fewer unwanted children and a resultant drop in crime, it was comically bad science to set up a provocative thesis like everything they did

i don't think you have the full story

link me to where it has been debunked? it's controversial to claim it's totally responsible but i've seen strong evidence that there is a correlation vis-a-vis early adopters of legal abortion?

― Mordy, Thursday, May 14, 2015 2:18 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

just google it my man

also a lot of the critics of the Donohue and Levitt study are anti-abortion critics as well so you need to be really careful about who you're listening to about it being "debunked"

here's the wiki page, lag00n: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legalized_abortion_and_crime_effect

yes wikipedia good job thank u lol

idk man you're talking as though you're 100% right. i understand if you're skeptical about the theory but "google it," doesn't give me a lot of confidence that you actually know why you should or shouldn't be skeptical but that maybe you heard somewhere that the freakonomics book is bad.

"you need to be really careful about who you're listening to" /links to wikipedia/

you said google it! i linked to a wiki page that in no way says, "this has been debunked"

maybe i should keep googling!

the lead paint theory is actually probably the best available theory—if you need just one, that is. but it's not foolproof. the biggest question it leaves is: if lead in paint and gasoline was prominent from the turn of the century, why do we not see a big jump in crime statistics until the 1950s–60s? of course, one might then argue (with reason) that crime statistics before that period are rather sketchy.

the abortion rate thing is probably wrong since crime went down throughout western countries and the increase in abortion rates only took place in a very few of them (including united states); in other places, decreased crime followed (by about 15–25 years) decreases in abortion rates.

i linked to a wiki page that in no way says, "this has been debunked"

it pretty clearly shows that the conclusion is highly debatable and not authoritatively supported by data tho

xp

so yeah i'm not sure if the "abortion theory" has been "debunked" but it doesn't really wash. unless you want to propose that decreases in violent crime in numerous western countries occurred independently and with completely different causes. which is possible but very unlikely.

xposts

my theory is that god is fucking with us, i'll get back to you with my evidence.

there is a lot of good evidence that does demonstrate a correlation, some of them listed from one of the original study authors here