2015 American Politics Thread: The 114th Congress Is in the House!

lol malefoy

goddammit
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/19/business/house-sends-trade-bill-back-to-senate-in-bid-to-outflank-foes.html?_r=0

Senate Democrats will also have to gamble that House Democrats will not again vote against the measure when it comes across the Rotunda.

ugh there's no way this happens, if they vote yes on TAA in the africa bill in the senate the house dems are never gonna shoot their feet and vote against it at that point, that'd be entirely pointless

we have to kill it in the senate, which is a much scarier and less plausible prospect.

fuck

h00s, i have a question about ISDS -- who gives the organization any authority to fine countries? is it just that the countries involved in the trade bill are voluntarily placing themselves under ISDS authority? putting aside why the US would be okay with that when we're already so reticent to sign onto any UN obligations lest we risk our sovereignty, why would any of the other countries want this?

we have to kill it in the senate, which is a much scarier and less plausible prospect.

yeah I have much less faith in my senators. well one of them anyway.

They also want to make sure that Mr. Boehner will bring up that measure once the Senate is done with it — most likely at the end of next week. Mr. Obama and Democrats aligned with him on trade have to support Mr. McConnell and Mr. Boehner, basically saying, “Trust us that we trust them.”

lol riiiight

who gives the organization any authority to fine countries? is it just that the countries involved in the trade bill are voluntarily placing themselves under ISDS authority? putting aside why the US would be okay with that when we're already so reticent to sign onto any UN obligations lest we risk our sovereignty, why would any of the other countries want this?

― Mordy, Thursday, June 18, 2015 6:35 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Yeah by signing onto the agreement the countries are giving the arbitration tribunals the right to fine based on any violation of rules contained in the agreement.

Generally speaking, negotiators in other countries begrudgingly agree to it as 'the cost of doing business' with the multinational (American) companies pushing for the deal. In a lot of my protest actions around tourist traps here in DC I've been approached by people from lots of other TPP countries who are excited to see American opposition because "everyone in our country is against this, and the secret courts."

my favorite detail about the ISDS process is that the tribunals who make the decisions literally come from the same pool of corporate lawyers arguing on behalf of the multinationals--so they could come in to work monday, argue a case for philip morris, clock out, then come in the next day and be 1/3rd of the tribunal on a different philip morris case.

I just can't understand why the US govt would be willing to hand over some of its sovereignty to an arbitration tribunal. Are the corporations bullying Obama into this? Or is the idea that without the tribunal there won't be any way of enforcing the trade agreements? (In which case isn't the better way to ensure compliance to tie the applicability of the treaty itself to its adherence?) Also, who gets the fine money?

Oh, I see. So the individual corporation would get it. Seems like a terrible idea to have corporations enforcing the details of a multinational treaty. They aren't even parties to it!

Are the corporations bullying Obama into this? Or is the idea that without the tribunal there won't be any way of enforcing the trade agreements? (In which case isn't the better way to ensure compliance to tie the applicability of the treaty itself to its adherence?)

yeah its sold as an enforcement mechanism. it's theoretically possible for (say) Barclays to take the US to court over Dodd-Frank, and no one really explains *why* that won't happen when Obama mocks that idea as ridiculous, except for this kind of unspoken notion that the international capital that plays nice together helps everybody win.

why, how could anybody honestly mistrust the interests of international capital, that's just silly

It just seems like we manage to have enforcement mechanisms on every other treaty we sign without giving open season to every corporation's legal team to start draining the capital of every signatory to TPP.

well i'd kinda argue that draining the capital of pacific rim signatories to make room for american capital is what the agreement (and 'free trade' generally) is *for*

though tbf realistically ISDS isn't really a big part of that plan in terms of dollars--example of outrageous settlements abound, but the money is really used as leverage to change laws in the corps' favor rather than, say, an explicit bleedout of welfare programs overlapping with corporate interests. ISDS is just a particularly egregious part of it.

what are the enforcement mechanisms in NATO?

couldn't tell you tbh

Nukes iirc

the Second Amendment

good news:

Trade-friendly Senate Democrats were skeptical about moving "fast track" separate from the renewal TAA, a worker assistance program. Fourteen Senate Democrats supported the two measures last month when they were packaged together into one vote.

Sen. Patty Murray, who brokered a deal to get Democratic support on the trade package last month, said she was "hopeful for a path forward that includes TAA and TPA. We'll see where it is."

Sen. Ben Cardin said his position hasn't changed. "I want it all together. I've said that before."

Sen. Bill Nelson, a strong supporter of the trade package, said he thought moving separate votes on TPA and TAA was a viable option, but wasn't sure how fellow trade-supportive Democrats would consider the votes. "To be determined on the rest of them, but I think at the end of the day we're going to pass them."

ugh Bill Nelson

I called his office last week before the vote.

lol boehner

"I'd describe most of what's gone on in last three weeks as close to bizarre and I don't think I've learned anything from it," he said.

"I'd describe most of what's gone on in last three weeks thirty years as close to bizarre and I don't think I've learned anything from it," he said.

Mere days after Hillary called on Congress to slow down the trade package, Bill went on the Daily Show to offer an unabashedly pro-trade argument: "On balance, the countries that we have trade agreements with, we tend to have a balance of trade, much more than, let's say with China."

Union leaders groaned: "After Hillary toggled to the left to appease labor unions, they said, Bill Clinton's television appearance looked like an attempt to assuage corporate elites," POLITICO's Annie Karni writes. "'It's too cute by half,'" fumed one labor leader, who declined to comment because their union has yet to make an endorsement in the presidential contest."

I had not noticed the specifics on that bad House vote earlier--The House vote was 218-208, with 28 Democrats voting for it.

lol that boehner quote sounds like jk simmons in burn after reading

https://youtu.be/SlA9hmrC8DU

so TPP is a-go?

well today was the cloture vote--but the path is clear.

last ditch brake effort by the sponsors of the Africa bill (AGOA) that they tied TAA to--they'd been threatening that if TPA passed cloture, they'd vote against AGOA/TAA themselves. they're hoping that the threat of killing TAA is enough to persuade Dem Senators to vote no on TPA.

we'll see. i have my doubts, honestly.

is it wrong to assume that the current event news frenzy is giving these guys cover to do nefarious shit or are the opponents to tpp memories longer than that and the uppance will come later? or is there no comeuppance?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEbjpVnLv2c

after Fast Track, we shift our footing to fight on the vote TPP directly--but the truth is that will probably be an ineffectual fight. this is the one where we had the best shot at winning.

are the opponents to tpp memories longer than that and the uppance will come later? or is there no comeuppance?

― panettone for the painfully alone (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, June 23, 2015 6:14 PM (46 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

there's talk about primarying people who voted wrong, but nobody in our coalition is willing to go on record saying they'll use this as a test on, say, presidential endorsements.

'is it wrong to assume that the current event news frenzy is giving these guys cover to do nefarious shit'

i think it's a mistake to think that tpp was going to get a groundswell of opposition under the most ideal news circumstances, after all americans tend not to pay a lot of attention to trade bills

I like to think once people hear about the details in this turd they'll turn against it but yeah that presumes people actually pay attention =\

they should have tied US citizen consumer/education/medical debt liquidation to passage of this bill but that would be unrealistic. better to practice voodoo

"if you order a pizza i will THROW AWAY MY BIRTHDAY CAKE"

-- house dems, 2015

they should have tacked on a bill to sponsor the perverted arts

there's talk about primarying people who voted wrong, but nobody in our coalition is willing to go on record saying they'll use this as a test on, say, presidential endorsements.

― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver

what about House and Senate races?

maybe if we coddle big money more, labor will benefit someday?

what about House and Senate races?

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, June 23, 2015 8:36 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

right yeah, that's who we're talking about primarying

man I would love someone to primary Feinstein but her pockets are insanely deep

a lot of people got spooked when we went hard against like Bera in CA & Polis in CO & MoveOn is even sabre rattling about primarying Wyden--that's part of why we think we got the votes we got in the house a couple of weeks ago.

I assume primarying House members is way easier than Senators

afaict but i mean, i'm still new to this stuff

fucking BLOOMBERG amost lost his 3rd mayoral term to an empty suit w/ no money. it can be done.

mayoral politics are not state politics, smaller footprint

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/tpa-trade-bill-democrat-vote-tally-119331.html

Both of my Virginia Democratic senators voted for this. Ugh

New Yorker profile on Feinstein last week packaged her as a centrist.