hurricane coming...

it's dissipated

this sounds bad

yep

Wind map:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-111.07,17.94,3000

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_nears_mexico_at_record_strength.html

Over the past 30 hours, Patricia’s central pressure has fallen by 114 millibars, from 994 to 880—possibly beating the world’s record for fastest intensification. Since lower air pressure drives faster wind speeds, such a fast intensification has greatly increased the storm’s strength—Patricia strengthened by 100 mph in 24 hours, the most in the era of complete data coverage by weather satellites. This historic data was collected by a hurricane hunter aircraft flying through the center of Patricia, which departed the storm as it was still strengthening. Shortly after the research plane left, satellite estimates of Patricia’s intensity broke the Dvorak scale, peaking at 8.3 on the 8.0 scale.

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#PATRICIA

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

^omg at this

Its contours remind me so much of Hurricane Andrew. Hoping for the best. Ugh.

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

FWIW, I think the theoretical maximum velocity is from this study. Maximum azimuthal velocity is ~100 m/s = 223 mph (Fig 7).

This is way higher than empirical maximum velocity, which for the Western Pacific is a function of sea temperature, and peaks around 80 m/s = 179 mph (Fig 1).

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

yeah this is insane.

horrifying

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/CSAQYdYUYAAPe66.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpg

Latest forecast is even worse!
http://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/images_blogs/wiredscience/2013/03/emperor-penguin-ir-image-solo.jpg

how populous is the area where landfall is expected? what is the state of evacuation procedures?

(too lazy to google)

Guadalajara, jeezus

Yeah, a hunk of Jalisco, right? Puerto Vallarta, etc? The place my friends stayed at last year is on lockdown.

The radio said guests in the line of landfall were told to pack bags and blankets and be ready to be bussed 6 miles further inland. But procedure sounded unclear on the radio.

https://twitter.com/Enrique_Acevedo/status/657720628452048896/video/1

Scott Kelly took this photo from the ISS

http://i.imgur.com/6fPFbZb.jpg

wtf

Weakened quickly

The good thing about these intense storms is that they require intense energy to sustain themselves.

Hurricane Matthew. We're supposed to go to Charleston this weekend, but right now it is (literally?) up in the air. Even called a living history museum to ask if I should buy tour tickets, and they told me to play it by ear. Meanwhile, authorities have given the heads up to every eastern state from Florida to Maine, though only FL and NC have declared preemptive states of emergency. It's a pretty huge storm, but storms do weird things. The hotel guy in SC I spoke with noted that the last time they predicted a hurricane the Low Country got nothing, but a couple of years ago there was a huge rain storm that left like 6 feet of water in the streets and stranded him in the hotel for a couple of days, so he said there's only so much planning you can do.

I dunno. I have a bad feeling we'll be pocketing our plane tickets and eating some of the hotel reservation, then heading to Milwaukee for something more modest. And dry.

I'm going to Disney World this weekend. I guess.

Orlando should be ok, right? But dunno how much flights will be disrupted.

these things are really hard to forecast 4-5 days out, which they've admitted. Orlando might take a direct hit or might just get bad weather due to it being off the coast.

my friends have a wedding this Saturday and the poor things are freaking out about the storm.

Story on Haiti this morning sort of heartbreaking. The government there declared a state of emergency, said to take precautions and/or evacuate areas, but supplied no further guidance, transportation, or funds (because they really have none). So the people there are basically stuck doing nothing.

and most of the homes there aren't built to withstand a hurricane.

it really sucks that they're pretty much perennially always in danger during hurricane season :(

SC gov shutting down offices and schools in advance, switching traffic lanes and calling for evacuation app. 100 miles inland from coastal areas. Sounds a bit better safe than sorry this far in advance, but at the same time ... man. We might have to eat the cost of these plane tickets, because even if the airport stays open dunno what condition the city will be in (flooding, power, traffic, etc.). Or maybe they will get nothing. Oh well.

I personally wouldn't chance it.

Hi!

Meanwhile schools still open tomorrow and Thursday in Miami-Dade despite the storm's proximity by then.

I'd be...shocked if Orlando felt more than a toss of the branches. I had friends who were in Disney during Hurricane Frances and another set during Charley a month earlier and it was a dream: it's the best place on earth to be during a storm because the power never goes out and, if you're in a Disney hotel, characters entertain in the lobby.

They should evacuate everyone to Disney World.

Been following the Charleston Reddit thread (I know) and there are already stories of traffic and gas lines/shortages.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Charleston/comments/55vat0/charleston_hurricane_evacuation_megathread/

I lived in Longwood (30 minutes out of Orlando) during Charley and we got 80 mph winds, mostly just shingle damage, lost power for a night. Jeanne and Frances were more annoying because they were slow moving and everything was already weakened, but still didn't get much damage, or lose power for more than a night. many of my co-workers lost power for a week.

but with that said, the six major models not agreeing with each other and the average is what's largely putting FL in the crosshairs, but I bet the Carolinas take the hit (and I'm glad my folks don't live there anymore). I am rooting for no storm as two of my friends are getting married and the bride is beside herself trying to find an alternate venue right now *just in case* as theirs has no generator. can't think of someone who deserves that less!

man I wish I coulda opened a general store overnight, everybody including my mother is freaking out and asking if I'm prepping and do I wanna stay with them. I'm like....call me tomorrow if it's still a problem, I ain't bought shit, nor am I planning to go anywhere.

one of my co-workers today declined an invite to go into the office for a group lunch because *the weather might be terrible Thursday*, we're all like, dude, if it is, none of us are going to be in the office, so why bail on it now?

the gas shortage shit pisses me off because it's always caused by people reacting to the shortage they themselves wind up causing. nobody needs five full canisters of gasoline.

I remember in 04 being near empty and chastising myself because station after station was plastic bagged for miles.

04 sucked. Bush plus hurricanes = bleh

Frances and Jeanne were slow annoying rainmakers for us. Remember how Frances sat and didn't move at all for two days between Palm Beach and Martin counties? We lost no power in MDC but we were locked at home for three days on Labor Day weekend.

yeah the worst was being a Best Buy employee and losing days of work when I needed them. and boredom. all the boredom. people came in to Best Buy not to shop but for the air conditioning.

but then I heard tales of friends who had houses destroyed in Orlando during Charley and I realized sometimes boredom is ok.

I was in a production of Fiddler on the Roof at the time that rehearsed in a hotel in Lake Mary and the hotel we used got flooded so bad we couldn't rehearse there the weekend after.

then again, considering we had our Fruma Sara split open his chin during a dress rehearsal due to a stage accident, our Golde get a concussion by face-planting into a pole during dress rehearsal and then getting involved in a head-on vehicle collision shortly after the show, and our Tzeitel killing two children in an infamous "texting while driving" vehicular accident a month after it ended, it mighta been better if the hurricane had wiped out the theatre.

the house destroyed in Orlando tho we think was more due to spawned tornadoes than the hurricane

huh -- I'd forgotten about Patricia.

looks like the chances Orlando gets trop storm winds on the lower end is in the upper 70% now :/.

which tbh doesn't faze me - just don't want my new apt (that I move into next month) getting fuxored, or my friends' wedding getting fuxored, or the Meshuggah/Bad Religion concerts next week getting fuxored. you know, the important things.

guess this means no Halloween Horror NIghts!

local news got real click-baity overnight. despite the track staying much the same, now this is the "greatest weather threat we ever faced" (remember Floyd in 99, before it did its unexpected turn and missed us? stfu!), we could take a direct hit, etc....

I get that they're trying to make sure people take it seriously but they're confusing residents into thinking we are supposed to take a direct hit now according to the track.

in either case I'm not going anywhere unless models show it going much further west at next few updates.

It says volumes about my faith in weather reportage that I'm gonna be seeking counsel with all y'all itt with eyes on the ground. We aren't flying down until Saturday so it sounds like we're gonna miss whatever goes down...? Who even knows.

MDC schools closing tomorrow and Friday; no word yet on my university.

xxpost - it's hard to say, because now the track has slowed and the storm may still be brushing FL coast Saturday morning.

Wonderful. Thanks, Obama.

I do wish the best for all my FL friends and family as this scrubs the coast. Worrying about these more and more each yer

Well, we just cancelled our Charleston hotel reservations. They were totally cool and we were not penalized. All the places we were going to hit in the city - restaurants and the like - will apparently be shut for the weekend as well. Pretty much the only thing not cancelled is our flight, but I have a hunch that is next on the docket.