the scottish independence referendum

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4269808.stm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34288573

Jeremy Corbyn has finalised his frontbench line-up, appointing a peer jailed for arson to his education team.

Lord Watson - a former MP and MSP - was given a 16-month jail sentence in 2005 for starting a fire at an Edinburgh hotel. He was suspended from the party, but regained the whip in 2012.

Ah. Thanks for the clarification.

i agree that nobody who commits a crime should ever be allowed to hold public office ever again

What's this got to do with the Scottish indyref?

burning bridges

so i guess it's time to dig this thread out again eh

Current polling is on 49%, and if the campaign gives that a bump half that it got in the last one, Yes will romp home.

Who will stand against this time? The Tories are going to have a fun time squaring the justification for Brexit against the justification for independence, while simultaneously playing down a border in Ireland and playing up a border in Scotland, while claiming Scotland won't be able to trade with England its biggest partner while claiming England will be able to trade with the EU, its biggest partner.

Labour? It's going to amount to a single-man Project Fear from Blair McDougall saying the numbers don't add up because the oil price has sunk forever and ever and also there's no way Scotland will ever trade with England again. Maybe Brown will make another speech.

that hard time squaring justifications is already rearing its head. No10 sez:

Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time.

Everything hinges on what the EU says and does, right? If 'Independence, but outside the EU' looks like the most likely option then I can see a No vote again. If the option to stay in the EU is explicitly on the table then Yes will win comfortably.

It almost certainly will be on the table. Which will again leave No trying simultaneously to say England matters most to Scotland for trade so it can't leave and that England will get a trade deal so Brexit will be fine.

The timing is perfect; it might be the factor that turns what has always been a pretty unlikely thing really into a reality.

Come on first ever four letter country code

Unnamed diplomat says Scot entry a "slam dunk" https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/this-is-how-the-eu-will-handle-theresa-mays-triggering-of-ar?utm_term=.rbYy53al0#.wvQgblVeJ

so what happens when no 10 says (as i suspect they almost certainly will) 'fuck off' to a second referendum?

They go ahead and hold it anyway?

is "scotland breaks away and stays in the eu" something all 27 members have to assent to? bcz aren't some of them (spain) pretty hinky abt the implications for their own polity of secessions from the union

the salience of Project-Fear-type argts will be interesting over the next couple of years -- if brexit turns out bad (which sturgeon is sure somewhat counting on) then PF-type argt will presumably gain somewhat in told-you-so force,* even tho intricate (but correct) economic argt have not had a good run against cultural argts recently (including in Indy1, in fact: the claims Yes brought to the table re how it wd pay for itself were kinda garbage-y, but pointing this out didn't seem to register significantly among reasons for the final vote)

*even when wielded by those who formerly mocked them: squaring contradictory arguments is after all what strong politicians do (i don't think may is a strong politician; ruth davidson remains to be tested tbh)

Spain may have strong politicians, though - joining the EU because you love it more than the country you're seceding from is possibly sufficiently different from Catalan's situation.

i vaguely remember reading that spain has shifted on this anyway (scotland, not catalan): but are there other member nations it's an issue for

this doesn't matter if you don't have to get all 27 ducks in a row, of course

strikes me the situation can be leveraged by the eu negotiators: "we offer the rump uk this better trade deal if and only scotland is allowed its referendum with a view to staying in the eu" (tho there may be reasons this isn't allowed)

It looks fairly accepted that Scotland couldn't "stay in the union", it would have to join as a new member. But virtually everyone in Europe who is asked says it would be a very quick entrance. Even Spain.

This all definitely strengthens the EU negotiating hand.

puts pressure on yes to fashion a somewhat less dodgy economic spec than they did two years ago: schauble et al will side-eye anything that even remotely reminds them of the (adittedly very much dodgier) stuff greece claimed abt *its* financial health when it came, which led to all kinds of shenanigans as you will recall

a cheeky cat labour could fly over to put among the snp's pigeons wd be yannis varoufakis actually lol

If after two years the negotiations stall I'm curious as to how the 27 then agree on either allowing the negotiations to continue indefinitely (which confirms the whole 'two years' thing as a mere estimation pointless for anyone to even bother mentioning) or...what? Saying 'sorry (lol) UK we can't agree a deal (lol) so you can't leave'? One can get the impression considerations never ventured such depth and distance.

mcternan's called it!
https://twitter.com/johnmcternan/status/836484996349165568

(he follows me on twitter you know)

(also when he was a young un JMcT put out a punk fanzine named for a stranglers song -- i spotted it at the exhibition at the british library but i can't put my hands on the note i made about its name)

nashwan - a) I understand that there are standard WTO agreements which EU/UK trade would default to, any UK laws would be the UK's problem - hence May's plan to just photocopy the EU ones and amend them later. And b) would this be better suited to the Brexit thread?

copy that

when he was a young un JMcT put out a punk fanzine

When Jaki Liebezeit played at Cafe OTO (last year?) he was sitting at the front, all giggly and excitable and bouncing on his seat.

a person like john mcternan should not be able to go out in public without being constantly heckled (this is the type of thing in which he represents to revel but still)

Has he ever got anything right?

he likes jaki leibezeit tbf

he probably likes him for the wrong reasons tho

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/homenews/14932790.Political_blogger_takes_court_action_against_former_Blair_aide_over_Clinton_bet/

squeaky bum time for the uk

We're kind of used to it by now tbqh.

now even squeakier

i still can't quite get over the 'life comes at you fast' headspin that the most well-known independence blogger was once a fan-favourite amiga power journalist

I was going to ask if it was the same one!

(Forgive my shameful ignorance of Scottish independence blogs, and my even more shameful knowledge of early 90s computer game journalists)

He's got some fucked up opinions about Hillsborough.

yeah he blames hillsborough on the fans and is an anti-trans bigot. his continuing prominence pisses me off.

he also lives in bath which is amusing

Oh, not that arsehole.

aye but his 1993 mauling of international rugby challenge wis a fuckin belter man

(he should really write his blog in that old computer games magazine house style - ed)

lol, otm

wondering if this is basically true of all opinion joirnalism

spanish govt (i.e. not call-me-dave's wee right wing pal mariano rajoy) said they have no problem with & no objection to an independent scotland, provided independence is achieved w/in the UK constitutional framework. their position is that the spanish constitution doesn't allow for it to happen in spain

our pal rajoy is on the scotnat train, choo choo

As a firm Yes voter I don't feel particularly joyous today at the prospect of a new indyref. I do, however feel even more vehemently in favour of independence than I did two years ago and that's because, sadly, I now loathe the United Kingdom with every fibre of my being. I loathe Westminister. I'd rather be part of a Scotland completely on its arse than be part of this shitshow, no offence to any other ilxors, although Wales can eff off.

http://i.imgur.com/f78PZzX.png

Can the old firm still be in the premier league after scoxit

at least one of them would be out of their depth in the Champo

is scotch antipathy to wales just based on it being too poor and closely tied to england to have a viable stab at independence?

it's the accent iirc