Rolling MENA 2014 (Middle East)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/vladimir-putins-interventionism-in-the-middle-east-is-not-to-be-admired/2015/10/15/7c939834-7373-11e5-8d93-0af317ed58c9_story.html

Washington’s foreign policy elites have developed a mind-set that mistakes activity for achievement. They assume that every crisis in the world can and should be solved by a vigorous assertion of U.S. power, preferably military power. Failure to do so is passivity and produces weakness. By this logic, Russia and Iran are the new masters of the Middle East. Never mind that those countries are desperately trying to shore up a sinking ally. Their clients, the Alawites of Syria, are a minority regime — representing less than 15 percent of the country’s people — and face deadly insurgencies supported by vast portions of the population. Iran is bleeding resources in Syria. And if Russia and Iran win, somehow, against the odds, they get Syria — which is a cauldron, not a prize. The United States has been “in the driver’s seat” in Afghanistan for 14 years. Has that strengthened America?

Kevin Drumm thinks things are already not going well; he quotes the ISW, "Nonetheless, the Syrian regime and its allies have thus far failed to achieve significant gains... Confirmed reports indicate that pro-regime fighters have seized only six villages and towns... At the same time, regime forces suffered heavy losses in manpower and materiel in the face of heavy rebel resistance. Free Syrian Army (FSA)-affiliated rebels forces claimed to destroy at least twenty tanks and armored vehicles as well as a helicopter gunship in a “tank massacre” on the first day of the offensive....Operations against the Syrian opposition will likely prove harder and slower than anticipated by either Russia or Iran...The foreign allies of the Syrian regime may be forced to expend further financial and military resources in order to preserve their initial gains."

I'm not yet convinced that this is going to be a disaster for Putin. He's supporting the historical status quo government against a revolution which immediately makes it different from Afghanistan or Iraq where the US toppled the entire state infrastructure. If it does become a "quagmire" I'm sure the US will have plenty to do w/ making that happen.

https://twitter.com/erinmcunningham/status/655717060962578432

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/656002890792734720

kinda lol but mostly sad
"I'm glad he's associated with al-Qaeda rather than IS, but obviously I worry."

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/23/world/middleeast/palestinians-israel-stabbings-shootings.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=mini-moth®ion=top-stories-below&WT.nav=top-stories-below&_r=0

Palestinian songs about recent incidents

gross as hell

p depressing

idk if this is true but:

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/10/26/435017/Lebanon-Saudi-prince-narcotics

http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2014/jan/13/captagon-amphetamine-syria-war-middle-east

^makes perfect sense to me. the US military has also issued amphetamines to troops in the past and the sale of illicit drugs has been a big money maker for a lot of paramilitary organizations worldwide. when there's a war to win, you don't give a fuck about consequences. people are dying right and left, so the future shrinks to insignificance.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/world/middleeast/syria-russian-air-strike-refugees.html?_r=0

The intensity of the fighting, they say, is fueling increased desperation as a growing number of Syrians are fleeing to neighboring countries and, especially, to Europe. More than 9,000 migrants a day crossed into Greece last week, according to the International Organization for Migration, the most since the beginning of the year

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-shifting-anti-isis-strategy-gather-battlefield-momentum/story?id=34759980

The changes we’re pursuing can be described by what I call the 'three R’s': Raqqa, Ramadi, and Raids,” Carter said in testimony today before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Russians?

Yes...plus, their other old "R" was "retreat" for what their trained "rebels" did

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/is-militants-tie-captives-to-palmyra-columns-blow-them-up/2015/10/27/9e1f3954-7c88-11e5-bfb6-65300a5ff562_story.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/world/middleeast/freed-prisoners-of-isis-tell-of-beatings-and-torture.html

it is hard to imagine a "hell on earth" worse than these descriptions of areas ruled by ISIS

But the Iraqi government says do not worry

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iraq-we-didnt-ask-u-s-ground-operations-n452756

The Iraqi government said Wednesday it didn't ask for — and doesn't need — the "direct action on the ground" promised by the Pentagon.

The revelation came a day after Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said the U.S. may carry out more unilateral ground raids — like last week's rescue operation to free hostages — in Iraq to target ISIS militants.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's spokesman told NBC News that any military involvement in the country must be cleared through the Iraqi government just as U.S.-led airstrikes are.

"This is an Iraqi affair and the government did not ask the U.S. Department of Defense to be involved in direct operations," spokesman Sa'ad al-Hadithi told NBC News. "We have enough soldiers on the ground."

yesterday's frontline on life in assad's chunk of syria was pretty grim, as you'd imagine.

xp in the context of US soldiers having to leave because they refused to be subject to Iraqi law, sending them back without discussing it with the government is quite a big deal.

The new tactic of heavy air raids on oil fields in Syria is also an important shift. It looks like the US is trying to cut off the supply of funds to ISIS but it's not going to be easy to rebuild the infrastructure if a new coalition or FSA government comes in. They'd apparently been holding off until now for that reason.

Erdogan back with an outright majority. Not hugely unexpected.

might be good for cyprus at least

That's about it

so.... Russian airline shot down? I can't fathom why Egypt would shoot down a Russian plane.

afaik no one thinks sisi's govt shot down the plane

so what hit it?

good question

I think it broke up in the air? There was some damage done to it's tail back in 2001

i think everything that is known is here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34697416

it sounds to me like a mechanical issue but i guess a bomb onboard or a SAM but i've read that it's definitely not MANPADS which don't have that kind of reach. i guess ppl believe that MANPADS are the best ground to air equipment that terrorists in the Sinai or wherever possess. it seems possible to me that they have gotten some better gear. idk it seems pretty premature to say it's anything. i don't think anyone believes Sisi's govt did this tho. if it was an attack, it was presumably an attack from non-State militants.

ISIS is claiming credit

I heard they posted a video of the attack and it turned out to be from 2004 or something?

It looks like Kogalymavia hasn't paid staff for two months so god knows what other corners they were cutting.

Will these various talks possibly succeed re Syria?....They still have to deal with Isis and with Assad

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34709167

Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said that Moscow was aiming to host a round of talks between Syrian government officials and members of the country's opposition in Moscow next week.

Last week world powers - including key Assad ally Iran for the first time - met in Vienna and agreed to renew efforts to end the conflict.

The ministers agreed to ask the United Nations to start a process that could lead to a ceasefire and new elections. New talks are due in two weeks.

what do you mean "deal with" assad? russia wants to keep him

Today the Russians said:

When asked if saving the Syrian leader was a matter of principle for Russia, spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said: "Absolutely not, we never said that."

"We are not saying that Assad should leave or stay," she added.

Dictators don't like being shown the door though

well that seems new

there have been some indications in recent past that russians are amenable to an outcome in which
-there is an exit for assad of relatively dignified nature
-(much of) the regime/ state apparatus stays in place (in contrast e.g. to post-saddam iraq)

The UK and Ireland have suspended all flights to and from Sharm el Sheikh until further notice. There have been leaks that the UK and U.S. think the plane was probably broght down by a bomb but no word on what that is based on. Neither is part of any investigation afaict.

hard to imagine they'd cancel flights on /no/ evidence

i guess the only question now is was it a luggage bomb or similar to what richard reid & umar farouk abdulmutallab attempted

well not the *only* question but still

if it was an explosion, then an explosive device is a distinct possibility. but airliners are full of jet fuel, which is also explosive. and some items that are not considered bombs, like a scuba tank, can explode in an unpressurized airplane hold. so, there are still questions to answer, even if it was an explosion.

the anonymous intelligence claims are that they have evidence from monitoring ISIS chatter before + after the event that leads them to believe it's a bomb

ISIS is claiming credit

Seems like just a matter of dotting the i's and crossing the t's then. Wouldn't want to award them the 'kill' if it's not legit.

Getting pretty short shrift from Russian security analysts without evidence being presented.

The headlines seem to have drifted from 'most likely' to 'strong possibility' overnight.

If it was a bomb, it's going to be catastrophic for Egypt. Sharm el Sheikh has been the one constant tourism magnet through everything. In theory it exists in a secure bubble separate from the rest of the country.

Getting pretty short shrift from Russian security analysts without evidence being presented.

Not in Russia's interest for it to be a bomb.

Security analysts and the Russian state don't always agree. There's always going to be an underlying scepticism of anything unsubstantiated leaked by the US though.

Bomb or not, Putin would play it to his advantage. The usual suspects were talking it up as a potential false flag to strengthen his hand last night.

looks like the CIA, Saudi Arabia, etc. are ramping up again in Syria

Saudia Arabia was previously busy causing uh collateral damage in Yemen bombing. Meanwhile, the announced 50 Special Ops US troops are getting the standard reaction-- some folks upset that Obama is getting US that involved in the Syrian mess, while others proclaim its too little too late, and that the US somehow has to get involved more directly in Syria while somehow doing it differently than prior actions in Afghanistan, and Iraq and the Libya support mission. Others want more involvement in an effort to influence talks with the Russsians and others.

@ggreenwald
The campaign vows of presidential candidates are typically unreliable but I believe Clinton means every word of this

Qasim Rashid, Esq.
‏@MuslimIQ
Not even a single word about the illegal occupation or ongoing oppression of Palestinians. Smh

http://forward.com/opinion/national/324013/how-i-would-rebuild-ties-to-israel-and-benjamin-neta/