Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

brokered-convention talk is like the stories about 'what happens if everyone ties?' at the end of the baseball season

The party's coalition-ness is important as regards when people turn out to vote for that party's candidate in the Presidential election, are they likely to look at the other contests also being voted that day and think "I know nothing about this person except the party name next to them, that's good enough for me"? The Democrats seem to have that still together, the Republicans not so much, as evidenced by the fact that their leading candidate is a pretty shit republican.

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/silver-gop-five-ring-circus-jindal.png

this is driving me crazy, because i don't see what the big differences are, i see a fight over how far to take anti-government, free market, pro-militarism principles to their logical conclusions

yeah at this point I think the differences within the coalition are more about where someone falls on the crazy spectrum than any given policy belief. like, when 50% of the party was backing trump+carson, what does that say about the big tent republican party?

WTF? It says that the evangelicals aren't getting nearly enough love from the big tent GOP recently, which is, you know, kind of big news for the GOP. Maybe only 3rd or 4th on the list of "why we're fucked", but still.

Yeah but what's a tangible evangelical principle they don't have covered? I mean the GOP has been anti-abortion for as long as I can remember. If we're talking about something like "faith in God" I'd argue that's basically an empty principle and something too complex for 538 to really measure anyway

the Republicans not so much, as evidenced by the fact that their leading candidate is a pretty shit republican.

otoh, the Dems' leading candidate is a quality Republican.

xp that's a problem for 538 though (I don't think this election's being very kind to a site whose thing it is to start a sentence in every article with "statistically speaking..") - it's not an empty principle (more a "you know it when you see it") to the Carson supporters, and if they won't fall in line behind another candidate then that's a problem. And if that candidate is Cruz, that may still be a problem.

mookieproof otm on brokered-convention talk. It came up last time when Teahadis were deemed insufficiently enthusiastic about Romney, it will come up now because large segments of the party can't stand the polling leaders. It hasn't happened since the days of mutton-chop side-whiskers and it won't happen now.

Dr. C.: "the 2016 presidential election in many ways is like...game of thrones"

Needs more tits, imo.

evangelicals love carson and cruz and have come out for candidates they were more lukewarm about than trump

For those interested, I found this interactive online tool for sorting out the delegate situation. Looks like it'll be super helpful for me because I'm super ignorant about that stuff.

Dr. C.: "the 2016 presidential election in many ways is like...game of thrones"

just for the record, this was Karl Malone. i know nothing about game of thrones.

my bad sorry

Obviously, we couldn't be prouder.

http://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2b9fe24f9db596c42720e5ee5cdac56749a9f432/0_112_2916_1750/master/2916.jpg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10&s=8cc00186c068fe5e2a01281cd39eb286

i don't really know how to start with this, so bear with me (also: i've been an accidental asshole on ilm. put that aside, for now).

i want to chime in here once, and never again. i am a layman: i enjoy reading this thread, i understand every word of it, but i just don't have the type of political brain that some of you do, to normally actually engage with this thread, and so i'll only post this one time.

(although my politics are pretty unsophisticated, i consider myself a greeny - american socialist -- please forgive me).

after reading the news yesterday of the chance of a brokered republican convention, in which trump could actually win the nomination, i began to feel... frightened.
if he has a chance of winning the nomination, he has a chance of winning the presidency (we're in unchartered territory, now).
i really feel like a lot of you underestimate how stupid the united states populace is, sometimes.
just glance at the polls of hillary voters that also agree with his muslim ban - and, that should tell you how stupid and confused so many people are.

i'm just trying to say: if trump actually wins the nomination, it will galvanize people like me, and i will get in touch with my local democratic party office, and go door-to-door. it will be my responsibility to my muslim friends, and to my black family members. i wouldn't be able to live with myself, otherwise.

(forgive me. i'm not like you guys that normally post here, and i'll never make a post like this again, here.)

i really feel like a lot of you underestimate how stupid the united states populace is, sometimes.

oh, i don't think we do

brokered republican convention clickbait = media doing its job to keep the circus fun

it sure can be a stupid, confusing (and frightening) place mr mash

Trump has no chance of winning the nomination. None. That was true months ago and nothing has changed it.

x-post. shut up.

I'd put his chances well above zero, any candidates or political operatives not planning for this are pretty foolish. Predictions of his imminent flame out have proven extremely wrong so far.

after reading the news yesterday of the chance of a brokered republican convention, in which trump could actually win the nomination, i began to feel... frightened.

trump definitely extremely frightening regardless of whether he gets the nomination let alone the presidency b/c he represents a resurgence of unclouded fascist politics and the media's (even the handwringing media's) helpless lust to stare at them. (i.e. should another, more powerful candidate in the future harness similar forces they will be buoyed by the american media landscape regardless of how many members of it go in for some edward r murrow responsibility cosplay.) however talking about a brokered convention at this point is just kind of silly because there haven't even been any primaries yet, there isn't really any sign yet of trump having the right kind of numbers to trigger a brokered convention (as dr casino describes in much better detail), and the only reason it seems to the media that the race has been going forever with no consensus is that they started covering the race in dec 2012 and the reason they did that is either the mayan calendar shift or they want to sell you stuff.

DrC otm and even if he did win the nomination he has no chance of winning the general.

this is sad/hilarious in its level of total delusion:

In the new national survey, three-quarters of Republicans said Trump would have a chance of winning the general election if nominated, significantly more than say so of any other GOP candidate.

"Donald Trump is saying what 95 percent of the people of this country, that belong to this country, that were born and raised in this country, feel and think," said 83-year-old J.W. Stepp, a registered Republican who lives in Phoenix, Arizona.

For the sake of perspective, it is perhaps healthy to keep in mind that, for all of the vocal support the lurching buttplug has received, Trump has yet to receive a single actual vote. I mean duh, but still.

xpost Despite its historical lack of precedent, 95% of Americans agree on something. Never mind the fact that you'd have trouble finding a single thing that 95% of a room of 100 random people agreed on.

"Donald Trump is saying what 95 percent of the people of this country, that belong to this country, that were born and raised in this country, feel and think," said 83-year-old J.W. Stepp, a registered Republican who lives in Phoenix, Arizona.

shit that looks like an onion etc

the fascist "anyone who disagrees with me does not belong here or was not born and raised here" overtones are obvious.

Arizona is a political cesspool btw.

Amazing that this 83 year old Trump supporter has such a grasp on the inner thoughts of 318 million people.

no true scotsman fallacy ftw.

monster mash: "after reading the news yesterday of the chance of a brokered republican convention, in which trump could actually win the nomination, i began to feel... frightened."

I empathize but this is backwards: the brokered convention is only being talked about as a means to KEEP Trump away from the nomination (if it were to happen, which it almost certainly won't).

To restore my optimism, I look to messages like this David Ignatius piece. The argument there is that people be crazy sometimes but we mostly revert back to something more-or-less resembling normalcy. It may never satisfy large numbers of the discontented (right or left), but we tend to find an equilibrium. Whatever happens next year, Trumpism is not where the electorate will settle long-term.

guys have you spent much time with 83 year olds?

Oh and, just in case no one else says this to monster mash:

i'm just trying to say: if trump actually wins the nomination, it will galvanize people like me, and i will get in touch with my local democratic party office, and go door-to-door. it will be my responsibility to my muslim friends, and to my black family members. i wouldn't be able to live with myself, otherwise.

Right there with you, and also thanks for saying so.

guys have you spent much time with 83 year olds?

― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, December 11, 2015 8:40 AM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well yeah it's not funny because it's crazy it's funny because it's crazy in exactly the right way. this guy literally voted for goldwater.

(back when he was reasonable.)

as someone who once worked in a congressional office in arizona i can tell you that more than half of the ppl who called in talked and sounded exactly like that 83-year-old (or worse).

the issue with trump is not an "imminent flame-out." i was among those expecting one of those, yeah, but the thing is it doesn't matter. he doesn't have to flame out in order to have no chance. he is massively unpopular with the people whose votes he needs to court. he has nowhere to grow. he faces huge and well-moneyed institutional forces that want him to lose. he is "leading" with 25-30% of the vote in a field of ten non-zero candidates, most of whose supporters are never going to switch their votes to him. his closest rival ideologically (cruz) is overwhelmingly better-liked by the republican electorate, and at least marginally more acceptable to the party leadership, not because they like him but because it's obvious trump is the kiss of death for the party. and yes - - - the brokered convention scenario is that, in the extremely, extremely unlikely event that we end up there, the party has every resource at its disposal to lock out trump, and trump has basically nothing to offer anybody there since all the other delegates are party apparatchiks, sitting officials, etc,. who were sent there by people voting "not trump." what's his path to victory again?

dlh otm - imo the thing to worry about with trump is not "he might win" but "right this minute he is fanning the flames of hatred." he's dangerous as a demagogue with a voice and a media platform, not as a potential president of the united states. he is, indeed, saying what 95 perecent of the 83-year-old registered Republicans who live in Phoenix, Arizona, that belong to the Republican Party, that were born and raised 83 years ago in this country, feel and think.

haha yes to all that

basically the media loves a Sarah Palin, and he's Sarah Palin a year early and louder and richer and shrewder. Again, few people are paying attention to this shit now.

i think trump's dog and pony show represents like 15% of the country and they're primarily not living in big cities and they appear to be terrified for domestic issues that are somehow easier to confront/manifest as xenophobia, racism and classism (the last of these more justifiable of course). Trump's willingness to play a character that speaks to this vocal and hyperventilating minority is deeply vile and presents an unelectable option. Like everyone else, I'm having a hard time seeing the ultimate end game here, short of a scooby-doo style mask removal, an inexplicable dystopian gestalt shift or trump walking away "to spend more time with his family". Whatever the case, history is not going to be kind to this political era.

lol "playing a character"

Trump has a family?

he wants to have sex with his daughter

xp to djp: i really do think this is a character! not that it's any less offensive, hell maybe it's MORE offensive, but i don't think he genuinely believes any of this shit. it's just opportunistic marketeering.
http://globalgrind.com/2015/12/08/donald-trump-open-letter-by-russell-simmons/

he wants to have sex with his daughter

― Karl Malone, Friday, December 11, 2015

so do I!

my favorite theory is that trump is actually the high school teacher from the wave, and hopes to make it to the convention only so he can show a big video purporting to be from "our movement's international leader" and it's hitler. GOTCHA!!!!!

^that's the scooby doo moment. as a narrative thinker, that FEELS like the right endpoint. or that he's working for hillary. or he'll wind up with a big FOR SHAME speech and leave the building to a slow clap

I wasn't going to link this here but since people are participating in "what's his REAL plan" speculation:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/12/donald-trump-mark-bowden-playboy-profile?mbid=nl_121015_Daily&CNDID=32588691&spMailingID=8336955&spUserID=OTA2ODY1MDQwMzcS1&spJobID=821152676&spReportId=ODIxMTUyNjc2S0

This dude is a self-obsessed, unthinking ninny. There is no master plan, no forethought, no mystery. He's a rich dummy used to intimidating people into doing what he wants who is prone to petulant, destructive tantrums when he doesn't get his way. FIN

i don't see how that's different from what I'm saying except that he/his handlers have the animal intelligence to engage with lowest common denominator thinking to achieve the goals of more exposure, more money, more power

Here's the thing: Not only am I 100% confident Donald Trump will not be elected to anything, ever, I am also now becoming convinced that he's going to wind up a severely diminished figure by the time this all ends. Trump licensors (people who've paid to have Trump's name attached to their businesses) in other countries are cutting loose of him. I'm sure the same thing is happening in the US, just more quietly. This insanity is costing him money, and before it's done it's gonna cost him a lot more. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him back in bankruptcy court by the end of 2016. And what's he gonna get out of letting his commercial interests burn in the pursuit of a political office that was never even slightly within reach? A gig talking shit on the Fox Business Channel? He doesn't want that. He wants - needs - to be seen as all-powerful, on the ball, and wise/knowledgeable. This campaign is destroying him.

if trump got the nomination, i sense that there'd be an almost Reagan vs Mondale type victory for Clinton. people would have to start to imagine Trump actually as president, delivering speeches from the oval office in times of crisis or tragedy, when he'd have to reassure the nation. or how he'd present himself to world leaders. like there's no chance. you can't make spitting noises and drool and squint hard at putin or the pope. i mean you can, but only if you're an actual infant.

xp well i didn't say they/he were good at their job! You're probably right.

when you listen to him talk, with his words and the sound of his voice removed from the context of his rallies (and that video Tombot posted is good for this), he sounds like the absolute biggest moron to ever have a chance in a national election. and I'm counting Palin, because god bless her she at least tried to fake intelligence in those debates.

top man OTM. he'll have a permanent book-tour audience in the red states if he wants it, but be persona non grata everywhere else. not a great figurehead for a corporation. i could see it all eventually getting bought out and renamed something really generic sounding, like phillip morris becoming Altria.