Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

lol "playing a character"

Trump has a family?

he wants to have sex with his daughter

xp to djp: i really do think this is a character! not that it's any less offensive, hell maybe it's MORE offensive, but i don't think he genuinely believes any of this shit. it's just opportunistic marketeering.
http://globalgrind.com/2015/12/08/donald-trump-open-letter-by-russell-simmons/

he wants to have sex with his daughter

― Karl Malone, Friday, December 11, 2015

so do I!

my favorite theory is that trump is actually the high school teacher from the wave, and hopes to make it to the convention only so he can show a big video purporting to be from "our movement's international leader" and it's hitler. GOTCHA!!!!!

^that's the scooby doo moment. as a narrative thinker, that FEELS like the right endpoint. or that he's working for hillary. or he'll wind up with a big FOR SHAME speech and leave the building to a slow clap

I wasn't going to link this here but since people are participating in "what's his REAL plan" speculation:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/12/donald-trump-mark-bowden-playboy-profile?mbid=nl_121015_Daily&CNDID=32588691&spMailingID=8336955&spUserID=OTA2ODY1MDQwMzcS1&spJobID=821152676&spReportId=ODIxMTUyNjc2S0

This dude is a self-obsessed, unthinking ninny. There is no master plan, no forethought, no mystery. He's a rich dummy used to intimidating people into doing what he wants who is prone to petulant, destructive tantrums when he doesn't get his way. FIN

i don't see how that's different from what I'm saying except that he/his handlers have the animal intelligence to engage with lowest common denominator thinking to achieve the goals of more exposure, more money, more power

Here's the thing: Not only am I 100% confident Donald Trump will not be elected to anything, ever, I am also now becoming convinced that he's going to wind up a severely diminished figure by the time this all ends. Trump licensors (people who've paid to have Trump's name attached to their businesses) in other countries are cutting loose of him. I'm sure the same thing is happening in the US, just more quietly. This insanity is costing him money, and before it's done it's gonna cost him a lot more. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him back in bankruptcy court by the end of 2016. And what's he gonna get out of letting his commercial interests burn in the pursuit of a political office that was never even slightly within reach? A gig talking shit on the Fox Business Channel? He doesn't want that. He wants - needs - to be seen as all-powerful, on the ball, and wise/knowledgeable. This campaign is destroying him.

if trump got the nomination, i sense that there'd be an almost Reagan vs Mondale type victory for Clinton. people would have to start to imagine Trump actually as president, delivering speeches from the oval office in times of crisis or tragedy, when he'd have to reassure the nation. or how he'd present himself to world leaders. like there's no chance. you can't make spitting noises and drool and squint hard at putin or the pope. i mean you can, but only if you're an actual infant.

xp well i didn't say they/he were good at their job! You're probably right.

when you listen to him talk, with his words and the sound of his voice removed from the context of his rallies (and that video Tombot posted is good for this), he sounds like the absolute biggest moron to ever have a chance in a national election. and I'm counting Palin, because god bless her she at least tried to fake intelligence in those debates.

top man OTM. he'll have a permanent book-tour audience in the red states if he wants it, but be persona non grata everywhere else. not a great figurehead for a corporation. i could see it all eventually getting bought out and renamed something really generic sounding, like phillip morris becoming Altria.

he's in uncharted waters for sure, which is where someone would have to go in order to be the most historic reality start that ever walked the planet

interesting point top man, hadn't thought about it in quite those terms but makes total sense

I had not really been thinking about what the consequences of his guaranteed failure would mean for Trump himself

Kinda feel like Trump's right there with you.

lol

yeah i agree that trump Really Is a stupid bully who only wants and only senses domination. the presidential election is a reality show and he wants to win it. if he didn't want to win it he wouldn't be trump and i think he is trump. probably doesn't work to analyze him in rational long-game terms as if he really is a brilliant businessman (that's the character). but idk, i've been a little down recently and felt there aren't a lot of human desires stronger than domination :/

He was like one of those characters in an 18th-century comedy meant to embody a particular flavor of human folly.

lol!

Which is why I am on Disney World at present watching a grandad type wearing a canary yellow TRUMP shirt.

sort of the depressing thing about trump is you could decimate their argument with intelligence, wit, and evidence and he'd like roll his eyes and make fun of your shirt or fatal illness or w/e and his audience would cheer and his numbers would inch up.

Yahoo headline: Clinton No Longer Thinks Trump is Funny.

Was talking to someone this morning from the financial world, someone who has been to his house for dinner, etc, and she just couldn't figure him out, her memory of him and his family being perfectly nice, reasonably people, and him right now being a total lunatic. Maybe he's been swapped out for a (more) evil twin?

Ha, "reasonably people," that might be the best typo ever.

btw thanks djp i hadn't read that.

I watched as Trump strutted around the beautifully groomed clay tennis courts on his estate, managed by noted tennis pro Anthony Boulle. The courts had been prepped meticulously for a full day of scheduled matches. Trump took exception to the design of the spaces between courts. In particular, he didn’t like a small metal box—a pump and cooler for the water fountain alongside—which he thought looked ugly. He first questioned its placement, then crudely disparaged it, then kicked the box, which didn’t budge, and then stooped—red-faced and fuming—to tear it loose from its moorings, rupturing a water line and sending a geyser to soak the courts. Boulle looked horrified, a weekend of tennis abruptly drowned. Catching a glimpse of me watching, Trump grimaced.

“I guess that’ll have to be in your story,” he said.

“Pretty much,” I told him.

rich people know how to host, it's not rocket science (or brain surgery)

Clinton taking the obvious (and politically sensible) rhetorical position here: http://news.yahoo.com/trump-rises-clinton-preaches-love-kindness-090951921--election.html

Trump's best hope for actually winning enough electoral college votes to become president would be a pandemic of outrageous scandals, fatal illnesses and accidents resulting in serious brain insults among the other candidates, combined with mass hysteria and insanity among voters. Which is to say, he has a non-zero chance of winning, but it's a pretty damn remote chance.

some pretty serious brain insults among the field already imo

and one santorum that is just a plain insult

2 voters so far... it's an easy ballot! Send em in early!

lol

okay, lol, that was supposed to go in the "worst song of the year" poll, but same difference.

Doctor Casino (checking - yes, this time I'm sure it's Doctor Casino) speaks volumes of wisdom. Re: Cruz being "overwhelmingly better-liked by the republican electorate," yeah. But he is still hated by almost every prominent Republican. Can you imagine the nominating convention speeches?

Also forksclove, "vocal and hyperventilating minority" is right imo.

Can you imagine the nominating convention speeches?

I can and they would be hilarious

"A lot of people say Ted's not a likable guy..."

he is "leading" with 25-30% of the vote in a field of ten non-zero candidates, most of whose supporters are never going to switch their votes to him.

He's at 35%. What is the path for Rubio or Cruz to actually win primaries? That it requires lots of others to quit the race?

"A lot of people say Ted's not a likable guy...

...Ladies and gentlemen, Ted Cruz!"

I'm just gonna say it: Ted Cruz looks like a stalker.

Delicious: Carson threatening to leave GOP

It would be in such horrifically bad taste to make an analogy where the GOP is acting like Brer Rabbit begging Carson to throw it into the briar patch, and yet

Assuming Cruz, Carson, and Rubio don't quit and Cruz (who's ahead of the other two) gets the entirety of the Paul/Bush/Huckabee/Kasich/Christie/Fiorina vote, he's still behind Trump.

And Cruz's unlikability is twofold: first, he has burned enough bridges with his fellow congresscritters (e.g., McCain) to ensure he's anathema to party leadership. Second, his fatal charisma deficit keeps him out of the running with the general electorate. Even if parliamentary shrewdness and college-debater skillz get him past the first obstacle, the second looms before him like a glacial wall. Worry about Cruz? I refuz.

Here's a thing that makes me a little less scared about scary manbabies leading in the polls: they will likely tantrum themselves out of contention. Even if it doesn't happen, I hope the whispers about a brokered convention are enough to spur some of these children to take their balls and go independent.

DJP: hahaha

What is the path for Rubio or Cruz to actually win primaries?

My short take: Trump isn't going to win Iowa because he can't get the evangelical vote. My bet would be on Cruz at the moment (Rubio doesn't have the same pull w evangelicals as the Tedster). Trump might win New Hampshire but it's hard to tell, I could see it maybe going for Christie too. My guess based on the current situation is that the party establishment's gonna throw it's weight behind Rubio - the only candidate Clinton thinks presents a real challenge, party insiders like him, he's a young fresh latino face that they have delusions may appeal to other non-Cuban latinos, etc. I can see him actually winning primaries, glad-handling superdelegates, doing the political horse-trading necessary to cement party support, avoiding saying too much that's insane and/or crassly offensive. He's the safe bet. Cruz's path is more tortuous given how much the establishment hates him, but dude is methodical and his whole modus operandi is to figure out and exploit the rules of the game (which is why, for example, he has set up shop in places like Puerto Rico that other candidates don't even bother with). He knows it's about racking up numbers, no matter how, and if he can pull off an early primary win like in Iowa he will perhaps start to gather steam.

he's still behind Trump.

no. if Cruz wins Iowa he's AHEAD of Trump.

it's important to remember this is about delegates and not about poll numbers

"The party establishment throws its weight behind Rubio": I agree that this is likely. Rubio is seen by nativists as squishy on immigration and an amnesty supporter. The Trumpoids will never move to Rubio, but they can and will move to Cruz.

in short they are all fucked