his = Carson there
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:13 (eight years ago) link
anybody with an (r) next to their name will win in kentucky, and their recent electoral history fraud proves it.
fixed
― sleeve, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:17 (eight years ago) link
Did you guys see the S.E. Cupp interview with the Trump campaign person who said, "Who cares? They're Muslims." this morning???
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:19 (eight years ago) link
This seems extremely speculative to me. Rubio has no traction I can see, Bush obviously much less. Carson's collapse may have already reached its bottom floor.
That's all speculative too, though! And again - those characters don't have to all drop out before Super Tuesday for their supporters to abandon them. Carson's collapse is as new as Rubio and Cruz's rise, so if we can speculate that he's reached his floor (why?), we can also speculate that Rubio hasn't reached his ceiling. I mean, just looking at it on paper, would it be so surprising that the inexperienced candidate who only says crazy things would woo the evangelicals for a while and then burn out completely? Cruz offers them so much more, except those in the real hard core of late-night-radio-fantasy-pyramid-theory believers. We're still nearly two months out from Iowa so assuming the current polling will hold true then just seems odd to me, since it's changed so much even since the last debate or so.
Yeah, Rubio might or might not be the one. We'll see. He has the advantage of being the candidate the party establishment would most like to see win it, and that is a huge advantage. It might turn out that in hindsight, the whole 2015 phase of the race amounted to the GOP determining that Bush was simply not adequate to filling that role, but Rubio was. But again, even if Rubio doesn't work out, the party would still prefer Cruz to Trump.
I'm not as convinced that a lot of those voting for the others will not end up with Trump, Carson, or Cruz.
Really? We are talking here about people whose first choice is Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Rand Paul or Chris Christie. I can imagine that for some of them Trump isn't totally off the list, but probably not many, and surely not their second choice. I'll give you the Fiorina people since she got a lot of "not from the establishment" wind early on. Huckabee's people I feel like would swing Carson if still in the race, Cruz if not, maybe a splash of Trump but either way it'd be slicing up what's currently 1.8% of the pie, not just handing it to the Trump column.
― Doctor Casino, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:20 (eight years ago) link
I don't know, Carson has a certain je ne sais quoi? If the 13% who support him didn't abandon ship already, I'm not sure why they would.
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:27 (eight years ago) link
because some other religious nutter demonstrates a better chance at winning ie Cruz
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:28 (eight years ago) link
well you coulda said that when he was at 20% too. it's not like his numbers have stabilized, they're in free fall xp
― iatee, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:29 (eight years ago) link
So Cruzmentum after Iowa? Because I don't see that he's got it now.
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:30 (eight years ago) link
so much of this stuff involves snowball effects of self-fulfilling prophecies, if primary voters realize there's someone with a better chance of winning who says more or less the same kinds of things as the person they initially supported, then they switch over to the one with the better chance of winning. This happens all the time.
xp
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:30 (eight years ago) link
conversely if you start to lose - as in, you can't win Iowa or New Hampshire - people desert you
I hope somebody is doing an documentary about the jeb bush campaign cause I would love to see what it's like there right now
― iatee, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:33 (eight years ago) link
Santorum was winning states as late as March 24th last time. In April, you get a string of east coast states - that looks like the point where Romney took it.
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:34 (eight years ago) link
A reminder that most people aren't as glued to this as we are, news about crazy stuff that people say gets around at conversational speed.
xp some Cruzmentum if he wins it, a lot obviously if Trump flames out shortly after his first loss - but he's expected to get at least second in Iowa, if he gets that position in New Hampshire then he's on fire.
Also this doesn't look like Cruzmentum?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:37 (eight years ago) link
wait who do you think is like Santorum here, Carson...?
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:37 (eight years ago) link
all these fuckers are santorum imo
― Does that make you mutter, under your breath, “Damn”? (forksclovetofu), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:37 (eight years ago) link
in the colloquial sense
No, I don't think there's a Santorum, really. Trump makes the whole thing different.
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:38 (eight years ago) link
I mean, there's no Romney either!
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:39 (eight years ago) link
any updates on the trump / cruz shittalk campaign? i could see cruz staring down any trump insult with those beady eyes of his
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:41 (eight years ago) link
and then deflecting it using his "brilliant" oratory skillz or some kind of nerd humor
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:42 (eight years ago) link
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/11/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-leaked-audio/index.html
― goole, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:42 (eight years ago) link
less than an hour ago Trump retweeted:
Ted Cruz @tedcruz · 5h5 hours ago The Establishment's only hope: Trump & me in a cage match.
Sorry to disappoint -- @realDonaldTrump is terrific. #DealWithIt
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:49 (eight years ago) link
i don't understand why people saying 'the establishment doesn't like cruz' is necessarily bad thing for him
strategic piece of kissassery, so gross
― goole, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:50 (eight years ago) link
Cruz's obvious hope is that his lack of appeal to the establishment can be used to endear him to the voting populace, who will then hand him a big enough margin of victory that the establishment bends to their will thus allowing him to claim a true populist mantle
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:52 (eight years ago) link
sounds like a better plan than most of these guys have
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:53 (eight years ago) link
well insofar as it's an actual plan, yeah
― you're breaking the NAP (DJP), Friday, 11 December 2015 21:54 (eight years ago) link
Seems to me that the best plan is Trump's - explicit racism, bulldoze truth.
― timellison, Friday, 11 December 2015 21:55 (eight years ago) link
Or just buddy up with the explicit racist until he flames out
― rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:02 (eight years ago) link
so basically, jail
― Does that make you mutter, under your breath, “Damn”? (forksclovetofu), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:02 (eight years ago) link
christ New Hampshire isnt til Feb 9. this horseshit is toxic.
― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:06 (eight years ago) link
don't worry after that it's all unicorns and rainbows
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:24 (eight years ago) link
Rubio will not be the nominee and Rubio is a laughing stock.
― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:31 (eight years ago) link
well those are hardly mutually exclusive
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:33 (eight years ago) link
you puttin yr money on Cruz then? Christie's the only other one I can kinda sorta see pulling this off but that's a long shot.
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:34 (eight years ago) link
all the (~)bright republicans i know are hoping for rubio as the nominee
― Mordy, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:35 (eight years ago) link
I haven't talked to any of my GOP leanin family members in so long, I have no idea who they're backing.
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:37 (eight years ago) link
btw
A poll of Republican voters in the early voting state of New Hampshire conducted by public television station WBUR found that Carson's support has fallen to only 6.0 percent from 17 percent in mid-September.
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:38 (eight years ago) link
Aw, that almost makes me feel sorry for him.
― ready for the raptor (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:42 (eight years ago) link
all the (~)bright republicans
What's a Pepsi Bright Republican?
― :wq (Leee), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:43 (eight years ago) link
a republican who has passed the pepsi challenge
― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:46 (eight years ago) link
rubio is so un-presidential, i mean look at him, listen to him speak
― lute bro (brimstead), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:50 (eight years ago) link
he's like 15 years old right?
And too thirsty. All our presidents have been well-hydrated gentlemen.
Anyway from this...
http://i.imgur.com/V8Amh5X.jpg?1
...one might be tempted to conclude that the Carson/Trump support is sloshing between the two of them (one's rise is the other's fall and vice versa).
Cruz and Rubio's shared rise to become the only "professionals" with poll traction is clearer than ever. Their rise tracks closely to the falling support of all the other bottom-tier candidates (Bush, Christie, etc.).
Or maybe not. Maybe Bush supporters are defecting to Carson and Fiorina supporters to Rubio. Who the fuck knows? But it's what we have now, so it's what gets discussed.
― ready for the raptor (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 11 December 2015 22:56 (eight years ago) link
is Christie persona non grata cuz he hugged Obama that one time?
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:57 (eight years ago) link
or is there more to it than that? I can't believe that the GOP cares about corruption/bridgegate in any meaningful way. Do they just hate a fatty?
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 22:58 (eight years ago) link
"The hug" is one of those things much more widely circulated in right-wing infosphere than elsewhere - it stands in for a whole bunch of other stuff and it sticks precisely because his selling point is that he's a "Republican who won in a blue state," who "can get Democrats to vote for him," which with this electorate means he's suspect at the least and a traitor at worst. Which again makes me think that anybody who sees him as their first choice is not about to switch to one of the real wackos.
― Doctor Casino, Friday, 11 December 2015 23:04 (eight years ago) link
hug aside, Christie hasn't had a good news day in years
― iatee, Friday, 11 December 2015 23:06 (eight years ago) link
yeah, but since when does a GOP primary voter care about accomplishments? I guess he hasn't had a good media exposure/zinger day either
― Οὖτις, Friday, 11 December 2015 23:13 (eight years ago) link
He got some nice coverage from some of the debates, but some of it was JV debate and all of it turned out to be hitting singles when he needed a home run. But he's clearly playing the "put all his chips on New Hampshire" game, figuring that if Iowa and NH get split between equally unelectable fringe candidates, the "electable" conservative who comes in 2nd in NH, after everybody wrote him off, will look like the angel of redemption.
― Doctor Casino, Friday, 11 December 2015 23:23 (eight years ago) link