Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

maybe Carson doesn't know that many hotels have laundry service, someone should tell him

http://i.imgur.com/u4QGUkj.jpg

The last few updates to the Iowa live map have Clinton inching back some ground. I kinda agree that there's not really room left in the map for Sanders to take this thing, but IMHO it still counts insofar as the basic stakes for Sanders were "confirm that he is a real candidate." I don't think a 50/49 (or 49.8 to 49.5) hurts him, and it probably helps him (if obviously not as much as a win).

LOL at ABC News's reporters on the field chasing down Cruz's bus on foot in order to get a four-second dispensation of the exact cliches he intends to tell the gathered crowd. Star-struck reporters then tell the anchors back home that this demonstrates that he "loves to tell a joke."

Trump did okay--no meltdown or anything. What a letdown.

I have no idea which of these three guys will win the Republican nomination. None.

so has Sanders eschewed luxury for a Motel 6 room facing the parking lot?

local news cut to Carson's hq a half hour ago and holy shit, that dude does a great impersonation of someone who's stoned

he went from quoting Stalin to quoting Proverbs in a half minute

The little red good book

538 paints iowa as must-big-win for sanders, but I don't see it that way. just seems to me he has suffered from underexposure and a close showing in IA can only generate more media pointed in his direction.

i think he needs to win to have any shot. if he wins, even by one vote, the media will jump all over hilary and it'll be great for him. if he loses a close race then hilary's inevitability is just confirmed

Des Moines used to be called something like Fort Raccoon.

Lots of states where counties and cities don't match up.

― pplains, Monday, February 1, 2016 9:16 PM (54 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

uh it was Fort Des Moines, Iowa City is in Johnson county and was originally the capital but it moved over a hundred years ago iirc

there is a 10x10' little wooden cabin that is supposed to mark "the original location of Fort Des Moines" and I enjoy telling ppl it is the original fort and laughing my ass off when they believe it

Sanders winning or coming close in Iowa is a boon, he'll do well in the northeast as a given (I think?) and it'll keep him in the spotlight for the third wave of voting

xxp how is winning by less than a percentage point 'inevitable' tho, even in media-logic

Yeah, Hillary was looking for Gore vs. Bradley type results (63-37 in Iowa), not an actual fight. I think it looks good for Sanders, but ymmv.

Iowa has a minuscule number of delegates but the democrats apportion them by district. The republicans have changed how they do it three or four times in Iowa because the organizers were literally counting votes and declaring themselves the delegates and then voting for whoever they wanted at the convention!

and what is the incentive for the media to declare Hillary inevitable exactly? doesn't a tight race generate more clicks and eyeballs? xxp

like I cannot even explain how dumb the evolution of republican straw poll/caucus crap has been in this state

btw my theory is still that Iowa republicans are into picking the most batshit candidate, it's just that enough of them didn't even view Trump as an actual candidate, and Cruz reads as a politician but nuts

Cruz is telling everyone "Morning is Coming"

and "Yes We Can," wow this guy

according to HuffPo the gap between clinton and sanders is getting bigger in favor of clinton

also he was just talking about how "THAT is the power of grass roots" but for a second I thought he said "the power of craft services"

the only accurate website is this one iirc https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

it's the direct line to the iowa democratic party

It reminded me of "You don't know the power of the dark side"

alternatively: http://www.desmoinesregister.com/pages/interactives/elections-results-primaries-2016/#/

national sites are just hitting refresh really fast on local sites or are relying on exit polls

wow Bill Clinton is looking pretty rough these days.

xxp how is winning by less than a percentage point 'inevitable' tho, even in media-logic

― j., Monday, February 1, 2016 11:20 PM (9 minutes ago)

because a lot of voters aren't watching the results unfold in real time like we are. most people are going to see that clinton won, say oh yeah, she was supposed to win right, and that will be that

Bill standing behind her open-mouthed is such a distraction... not a helpful visual imo

xp yeah but they might see uh a 'box score'

'huh 50% huh?'

sticker-faced guy in the background is even worse

clinton couldn't even win clinton county, what a disaster for her campaign

Are Clinton and Sanders splitting the delegates either way, or will the winner come away with one extra?

it'll be close

The biggest indicator in Cruz's victory speech that his campaign will crash and burn is that he proudly used the phrase "Judeo-Christian values." That is a huge RED FLAG for more people than it isn't, even among casual Christians. When you start dropping "Judeo-Christian" into the conversation, people think of Falwell and Robertson.

I'm assuming the percentages are actually number of delegates they got out of the total allocated. I don't think "votes" are counted in the percentages, or at least I hope not xp

huh apparently they are, which... popular vote numbers are useless here, as usual

Clinton currently at 22, Sanders at 21

The biggest indicator in Cruz's victory speech that his campaign will crash and burn is that he proudly used the phrase "Judeo-Christian values." That is a huge RED FLAG for more people than it isn't, even among casual Christians. When you start dropping "Judeo-Christian" into the conversation, people think of Falwell and Robertson.

Well at least things ain't boring

I like the phrase "People of the Book"

Bernie needs a lozenge

Much as I love the guy, every time I see him on TV I wish he would carry around a nice tall mug of soothing chamomile.

clinton 663-660 sanders

the only accurate website is this one iirc https://www.idpcaucuses.com/#/state

it's the direct line to the iowa democratic party

― μpright mammal (mh), Tuesday, February 2, 2016 4:29 AM (33 minutes ago)

i keep checking back to this site and clinton's score keeps wobbling back and forth from 49.9 to 49.8, it's kind of stomach-churning. (sanders is at 49.6 percent.) and it just changed again as i was writing this. what a night.

Ok, I didn't realize that Fort Raccoon had merely been a suggested name for the location.

the demoines register site seems to be the most up-to-date

(and reports to two decimal points)

is it too simple-minded to think the older voters would have been more likely to vote earlier hence counted earlier? (thus, sanders could close the gap?)

msnbc totally waited until they could update clinton's total from 665 to 667.

bullshit

I would like to see Ted Cruz put up against a not-yet-invented military technology that would vaporize his insides in a flash of light.