Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

I like the phrase "People of the Book"

if he loses a close race then hilary's inevitability is just confirmed

If this is true, we deserve a dictatorship.

O'Malley and Huckabee quit btw

I have no idea which of these three guys will win the Republican nomination. None.

Let me help you: Rubio.

i can't really figure out why o'malley stayed in the race this long.

That's why I said it! xxp

And it doesn't quite, it is how Muslims refer to other abrahamic religions pre-islam

My middle name is "earnestly explains someone else's joke" so

With 99% reporting there's a .14% lead for Clinton over Sanders. This shit defies predictability, apparently.

Dammit, I can't find that Bloom County "raucous caucus" strip

So shameless: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/upshot/how-the-virtual-tie-in-iowa-helps-hillary-clinton.html

Hahaha what the shit

I guess Hilary Clinton is technically helped by having a projected +1 delegate over her opponent. But since her entire primary campaign strategy was, for the second time and seemingly without any hint of irony, based on "inevitability", and clearing the field of all credible opposition by projecting that inevitability since the moment she showed up at that Unity party in 2008, she probably is trying to figure out how to wear Patty Solis-Doyle as a pantsuit or something right now.

If Sanders can only draw in the states that are most favorable to him, then Clinton is pretty darn inevitable.

a candidate who underperforms polls by 3 percentage points in a head-on matchup against a 74-year-old socialist (sorry, "democratic socialist") might have some electability issues.

thx for danesplainin' Frederik

ie, he "drew," you moron.

So Clinton won 3 delegates by coin toss?

What exactly is the distinction you're drawing there, so to speak?

think you mean "drewing"

Imagine telling Bill Clinton in 1992 that 25 years later his wife would be neck-and-neck with an "independent socialist" in the Democratic primary. This wasn't supposed to be possible....

The consolation for the Clinton campaign is that the underlying math still looks good. Sanders is running behind Obama among white voters. Given that he's likely to run way behind Obama with non-white voters, Clinton remains a heavy favorite to ultimately win the nomination. But given that Sanders is likely to win New Hampshire next week, that victory won't come without a long and grinding fight.

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/2/10892802/iowa-caucus-bernie-sanders-tie

From another Vox article:

The Clinton campaign's strategy will, of course, be second-guessed as stumbling front-runners always are. But the larger problem is the way that party as a whole — elected officials, operatives, leaders of allied interest groups, major donors, greybeard elder statespersons, etc. — decided to cajole all viable non-Clinton candidates out of the race. This had the effect of making a Clinton victory much more likely than it would have been in a scenario when she was facing off against Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Deval Patrick. But it also means that the only alternative to Clinton is a candidate the party leaders don't regard as viable.

Trying to coordinate your efforts to prevent something crazy from happening is smart, otherwise you might wind up with Donald Trump. But trying to foreclose any kind of meaningful contact with the voters or debate about party priorities, strategy, and direction was arrogant and based on a level of self-confidence about Democratic leaders' political judgment that does not seem borne out by the evidence. This is a party that has no viable plan for winning the House of Representatives, that's been pushed to a historic lowpoint in terms of state legislative seats, and that somehow lost the governors mansions in New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois.

NB: by Matthew Yglesias.

So Iowa the last three caucuses have gone for the three most psychopathically religious conservatives, Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz. Nice at least that this time around those folks weren't falling for Trump's Bible-toting tomfoolery.

It'll be cool in 2020 to see Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz pulling >%1 in Iowa while Kim Davis wins the caucus

Don't discount Joe the Plumber's chances. Dude's making a comeback, mark my words.

The Clinton campaign's strategy will, of course, be second-guessed as stumbling front-runners who the press has had a hate-on for for 25 years always are.

especially when they tie with a 'democratic socialist' who was thought a joke 3 months ago?

plz, the clintons owe their zombielike unkillability in large part to the media.

Clinton remains a heavy favorite to ultimately win the nomination. But given that Sanders is likely to win New Hampshire next week, that victory won't come without a long and grinding fight.

Yabbut that can be spun in her favor, should she win the nomination. This was no coronation, it was not inevitable, she had to fight for every vote, and her candidacy is the stronger for it.

i'm done w/ this shit, fuck all these assholes. remove bookmark.

^^^ good candidate for the next thread title, maybe a bit long though

dude you are tapping out early, c'mon balls, that's not the balls we know and love, there's a long season ahead and we're going to need our balls if we're gonna get through it

(though I put that jokey I actually also mean it)

I'm overloaded from the last week, see you all later

Cuckoo-ca-choo, Huck. Cuckoo-ca-choo.

Sanders supporters all up in tizzy about voting irregularities. Caucus precincts decided by coin toss, 90 missing precincts ...

Liked this piece a lot:

http://www.salon.com/2016/01/30/my_day_with_bernie_sanders_and_hillary_clinton_two_iowa_rallies_explain_why_hillary_may_be_about_to_blow_a_sure_thing/

OTM that Clinton is running on "3am phone call" change=bad fear, just like last time.

Cuckoo-ca-choo, Huck. Cuckoo-ca-choo.

it is a grave injustice that whoever made that ad will not be making more this cycle

It's pretty clear that libs who prefer Sanders' politics but are twisting themselves like pretzels to justify a vote for Clinton are motivated by fear. So it works sometimes, maybe most times.

Recently, I think Huck has been floated semi-seriously as a Trump running mate. That would be entertaining, and it makes some sense because he would bring some humility, genial humor, evangelical support, and political experience to a Trump ticket. May be moot if Ted Cruzes to the nomination or MarcoMentum becomes a real thing. In any case I still think those are all general-election losers.

I do count this as more proof that nobody knows anything this year: wasn't Charles Pierce mocking the "Rubio surge" the other day?

Also, Matt Yglesias's recent piece arguing that Trump won the Iowa debate by not showing up is looking a little less accurate right now. It seems that turned off a lot of Iowa caucus-goers.

"Floating above the fray, Trump was perfectly positioned to grow even stronger just days from the beginning of voting."
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10866312/donald-trump-won-the-debate

also important to keep in mind that iowa polling is notoriously inaccurate. those cruz voters could always have been there

Before taking questions, Clinton gave the microphone to her celebrity endorser: John “Bowzer” Bauman of the neo-doo-wop group Sha Na Na. Bowzer boomed the intro to the Marcels’ “Blue Moon,” and promised to flex his arms and open his mouth reeeeal wide if Hillary wins the caucus.

ok i'm sold

https://www.yahoo.com/sy/uu/api/res/1.2/aFQzB6S3FzYZhoWsBrtqIg--/Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTQxNDtweW9mZj0wO3E9ODA7dz00MTQ7c209MTthcHBpZD15dGFjaHlvbg--/http://l.yimg.com/dh/ap/default/160201/ted-cruz.jpg

i mean really

from that Salon article:

The last time a Clinton was in the White House, she pointed out, incomes went up, and the budget was balanced. Then, a Republican president screwed it all up.

“One of the first things they did was to defang the regulators who were supposed to keep an eye on Wall Street and the financial markets,” Clinton said.

Chutzpah defined given the Great Bubba Deregulation of the '90s. Needs some tomatoes flung.

i know the odds are against sanders, but it was tough not to be heartened by the contrast between the clinton and sanders supporters last night. the energy and enthusiasm of the sanders crew is an order of magnitude above clinton's supporters. when they showed the clinton HQ you could hear snippets of arguments breaking out in the background, and the general vibe reminded me of the first family dinner following the tenuous reconciliation of a formerly separated couple. then they'd cut back to sanders HQ and it was like a party. i guess that's part of the benefit of being the favored candidate of young people.

sanders team still has time to find a singer with a larger mouth and more flexible arms, it's not over. has steven tyler made an endorsement? "LISTEN TO THIS BERN"

https://scontent.cdninstagram.com/hphotos-xfa1/t51.2885-15/e35/12317416_586220388198102_1911807337_n.jpg

Steven Tyler promises to go a-"Free Fallin’" into your yum yum yum if you vote Sanders

Picture of Cruz above looks like he's miming singing "Don't Stop Believin'" in his mirror with a hairbrush.

That Cruz pic reminds me of crying Swaggart

http://wp.patheos.com.s3.amazonaws.com/blogs/nolongerquivering/files/2013/04/jimmyswaggert.jpg

lol brownie

looks like a drunk dude singing mike and the mechanics at karaoke

the contrast between the clinton and sanders supporters last night. the energy and enthusiasm of the sanders crew is an order of magnitude above clinton's supporters

Unmistakable. Someone like Begala is always selling the great enthusiasm of Clinton's supporters, but her speech last night, and the general tenor of the room, felt like the same death march (win or lose) that 2008 felt like. (I'm sure I'm projecting a bit.)

apparently there were 6 caucus locations that resorted to coin flips last night, not 3, and clinton won all 6 of them! (something that would only happen 1.5 times out of a 100, but whatever)