Q: are we not MENA? A: we are the rolling middle east, north africa and other geopolitical hot spots thread 2016!

we know that obama was resistant to doing it and clinton/powers had to convince him. you're correct in your assertion that many things could have resulted out of the engagement besides gaddafi's capture. i am surprised at the suggestion that the article's author thought that once clinton intervened gaddafi's fall was inevitable. only in hindsight do we see that among other things, hillary's lobbying helped set into motion a chain of events that culminated [not inevitably] in gaddafi's death.

i mean the whole point of that section iirc is that despite a carefully planned libya intervention obama was still completely caught off-guard by the chaos that engulfed the country. i remember that among other things they said that they didn't realize tribal identities were as plentiful + strong as they turned out to be. so i don't think the author trying to argue that we can easily predict future events from current actions.

Interesting comment from Lavrov today that Russian negotiation means Assad now formally recognises legitimacy of US air strikes, effectively making them legal.

Jesus. Another car bomb in Ankara, another 27 dead.

The Turkish press has a gagging order on reporting it but there are rumours the death toll could be over 100.

AQIM kill 16+ in attack on beach resort in Ivory Coast.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35798502

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-announces-russia-will-pull-most-of-its-military-from-syria/2016/03/14/abd2a9d9-5e8c-4521-8b4b-960a8e6c96d4_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-high_syria%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

President Vladimir Putin announced Monday that Russia would begin withdrawing its military from Syria, potentially winding down nearly six months of airstrikes that have bolstered Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and dealt a grave blow to Syrian rebels.

Putin said late Monday that Russia would withdraw the “main part” of the military deployment to Syria, starting Tuesday.

From the Guardian:

Given that Russia-backed separatists launched one of their biggest offensives in Ukraine in February 2015, just as Putin joined other world leaders in negotiating a ceasefire, there will undoubtedly be scepticism over whether the announcement of the end of the Syrian mission can be taken at face value. However, Russia’s overarching goal of securing a lead seat at the table over the fate of Syria has clearly been achieved, and a withdrawal will prevent the inevitable “mission creep” that appeared to be on the cards.

“Essentially, they’ve achieved their goals: they’ve stabilised the regime, turned momentum round on the battlefield so the regime has the upper hand, and now we’ve got a ceasefire and political talks,” said Mark Galeotti, professor of global affairs at New York University and currently based in Moscow.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/vladimir-putin-orders-withdrawal-russian-troops-syria

leaving after military deployment? as an american I don't understand this concept.

xp

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/16/world/africa/al-qaedas-african-offshoot-makes-a-lethal-comeback.html?ribbon-ad-idx=11&rref=homepage&module=Ribbon&version=origin®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Home%20Page&pgtype=article

The violence by an array of terrorist groups in Africa may itself be indicative of growing competition. One American military counterterrorism official said that Boko Haram, the extremist group that has terrorized northern Nigeria for years, might be trying to increase its body count to uphold the bloody standard of the Islamic State, to which it has pledged allegiance. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, in turn, seems to be trying to keep up with the bloodshed.

Each of the militant groups competes for essentially the same things: recruits, credibility and cash, all of which are scarce.

Strikes on soft targets such as hotels are not particularly complicated operations, and are far easier and cheaper to pull off than controlling large swaths of land.

Even so, terrorist groups still need a source of money to help them hide out. The status of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb’s finances is unclear. While it has reaped sizable ransoms for the release of hostages, its kidnappings of a Swiss missionary and an Australian doctor and his wife, who were taken the same day as the Splendid Hotel attack, could indicate a need for more cash.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/17/ankara-car-bomb-kurdish-militants-claim-responsibility-attacks

TAK have claimed responsibility for the recent Ankara bombing, which probably won't stop repercussions against the PKK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35850625

Another suicide bombing aimed at civilians and tourists in Istanbul. Germany had closed its embassy and told staff to stay at home after either reviving intel or some kind of notification.

on İstiklâl Caddesi, eek, that's the Champs-Élysées of Istanbul, as I guess everyone here knows. Sultanahmet was hit a few months ago too. horrible.

it's a wall

http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.709035

Thought this account of the Egyptian revolution was interesting, but I'm curious if anyone can recommend any alternative accounts. the 'serious debate' he wants to have about the relationship between the left and Islamist movements is I suppose all you can prescribe when the situation is such a mess

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/03/egypt-revolution-sisi-mubarak-muslim-brotherhood/

Neo-con Jackson Diehl (deputy editorial page editor of The Washington Post and editorial writer specializing in foreign affairs) blames Obama's failure to bomb Assad and Syria after red line was drawn for well, everything that has happened worldwide since...

I changed my mind after I heard from dozens of foreign ministers and other senior officials of U.S. allies as they visited Washington in the months and years that followed. Japanese, South Koreans, Singaporeans and even Indians confided that they were convinced that Obama’s failure to use force against the regime of Bashar al-Assad was directly responsible for China’s subsequent burst of aggression in territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea.

Poles, Lithuanians and French drew a line between the backdown and Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. As for the Sunni Arabs, Turks and Israelis, it is an article of faith that Obama’s decision accelerated the catastrophe that Syria, and much of the rest of the Middle East, has become. They have an obvious point: Hundreds of thousands are dead, the European Union is in danger of crumbling under an onslaught of refugees, and the Islamic State and Assad remain unvanquished. Who would not call this a bad outcome?

No discussion of whether a subsequent war between Russia and Iran vs the US could have been a possible result of US bombing; or that the US supported rebels would still have failed or joined up with other factions the US doesn't like

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-costs-of-obamas-2013-syria-decision-are-apparent-to-everyone-but-him/2016/03/20/e526f614-ec56-11e5-a6f3-21ccdbc5f74e_story.html

I blame HRC for the "red line" talk. It makes it too easy for everyone from Turkish intelligence to jihadists to manipulate US policy. I really hate that the choice in the general election will be between a hawk/AIPAC tool and a demagogue who denies AGW.

Benyaich pointed to the arrival of funding from Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Persian Gulf states in the 1970s that was used to set up conservative religious schools in the area. A decade ago, Belgian journalist Hind Fraihi went undercover in Molenbeek and wrote a popular newspaper series that showed that disillusioned young Muslims were being influenced by radical preachers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/03/22/why-is-brussels-under-attack/?tid=pm_world_pop_b

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/in-syria-and-iraq-the-islamic-state-is-in-retreat-on-multiple-fronts/2016/03/24/a0e33774-f101-11e5-a2a3-d4e9697917d1_story.html?tid=pm_world_pop_b&wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202

The U.S. military estimated earlier this year that the Islamic State had lost 40 percent of the territory it controlled at its peak in 2014, a figure that excludes the most recent advances.

Plans for an operation to capture Raqqa, the de facto capital of the Islamic State’s self-styled ­caliphate, are on hold because of tensions between Kurds and ­Arabs over who would participate and how to govern the city after it has been taken. The YPG has declared a breakaway federal region that does not include Raqqa, while U.S. plans to train and equip an Arab force to fight for the town are lagging.

Likewise, preparations for an offensive for Mosul, the biggest city under Islamic State control, are being held up by disputes over who should take part and how to govern the northern Iraqi city after it falls. The powerful Shiite militias, credited with making many of the earliest gains, are insisting they be given a role, over objections from the U.S. military and the Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga.

“We could probably liberate Mosul tomorrow, but we would have a real mess on our hands if we did,” said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “A lot of work needs to be done to ensure an orderly transition of power in Mosul.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/world/middleeast/bashar-al-assad-syria-russia-west.html?action=click&contentCollection=Middle%20East&module=Trending&version=Full®ion=Marginalia&pgtype=article

Mr. Assad’s advisers believe not only that he has passed “the risky period” and will remain the president of Syria, she said in a recent interview, but also that his ability to “stand up to the whole world” will make him more prominent than ever as “a leader in the region.”

They insist that Russia is steadfast, she added, but they also hold an insurance card: their even closer relationship with Iran and their ability to juggle two very different allies.

Mr. Assad excels at running the clock. His officials show up at peace talks but essentially refuse to negotiate. They broadly promise humanitarian aid access while denying the vast majority of specific requests. Mr. Assad agreed in 2013, under threat of United States military action, to destroy Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons, yet conventional attacks on civilian areas, and accusations of chlorine gas use, remain routine.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/25/turkish-officials-europe-wanted-to-export-extremists-to-syria

Turkey, of course, has been doing the same thing by the truckload but this doesn't seem implausible. They list several cases of people travelling through domestic airports with military gear and passports known to be either stolen or on the Interpol watch list. In one case, Turkey deported a Danish guy who was caught trying to cross the border with Syria to join ISIS, he was deported but given another passport and allowed to travel to try again.

The failures were outlined by Turkish officials to the Guardian through several documented instances of foreign fighters leaving Europe while travelling on passports registered on Interpol watchlists, arriving from European airports with luggage containing weapons and ammunition, and being freed after being deported from Turkey despite warnings that they have links to foreign fighter networks.

“We were suspicious that the reason they want these people to come is because they don’t want them in their own countries,” a senior Turkish security official told the Guardian. “I think they were so lazy and so unprepared and they kept postponing looking into this until it became chronic.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35904430

On Thursday, Egypt's interior ministry said police had found a bag belonging to the student during a raid on a flat linked to the gang. All its four members were said to had been killed in a shoot-out.

No comment required, I think.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/27/syrian-regime-forces-retake-all-of-palmyra-from-isis

The Syrian government, with the help of Russia, has driven ISIS out of Palmyra.

http://www.vox.com/2016/3/26/11309708/abu-alaa-al-afri

But what's actually going on here? Why is the US killing so many ISIS deputies, while somehow failing to hit leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? And it does it even matter when you kill top-level ISIS officials?

Why the US keeps killing number twos

Analysts have developed a few theories as to why the US keeps hitting second-in-commands, but not the leader. One of the most plausible is that Baghdadi is a much harder target, whereas the nature of the number-two job involves exposing oneself to greater risk of being targeted.

Death toll rises in Lahore, Pakistan, while In Islamabad on Monday, thousands of Muslim demonstrators protesting the execution of Islamist assassin Mumtaz Qadri staged a sit-in inside the city’s “Red Zone,” which is home to a number of vital government institutions, including parliament and the prime minister’s house.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/death-toll-in-pakistan-easter-suicide-attack-rises-to-72-authorities-vow-to-hunt-down-perpetrators/2016/03/28/037a2e18-f46a-11e5-958d-d038dac6e718_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-top-table-main_pakbomb-355am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

Pakistan always manages to look like pure chaos.

Someone has hijacked an Egypt Air flight and made them divert to Cyprus. Not much detail of what is going on yet.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry has helpfully clarified that the hijacker is "not a terrorist, he's an idiot".

It is being reported that his wife left him and moved to Cyprus and this is an unorthodox attempt to get her to talk to him.

Flowers not working?

some kind of street fight happening in front of brookings inst during erdogan's visit there

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/715566699836256256

https://twitter.com/will_mccants/status/715562665293324292

this confrontation was apparently outside of erdogan's hotel two days ago

https://twitter.com/MahirZeynalov/status/714943551671570432

https://theintercept.com/2016/03/30/turkey-wants-ban-on-mocking-its-leader-enforced-abroad-too/

After the president arrived in Washington on Tuesday night, his security team got right to work, harassing protesters and journalists outside his hotel, as writers for one of the papers recently shuttered by Erdogan’s government noted.

...That display of intolerance for dissent followed reports this week that Turkey’s foreign ministry had summoned Germany’s ambassador to complain about a satirical music video mocking Erdogan that was broadcast recently on German television. “We demanded,” a Turkish diplomat told Agence France-Presse, that the show “be removed from the air.”

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/30/erdogan-uses-closed-door-meeting-to-blast-white-house/

Erdogan courted Washington’s top think tank luminaries on Tuesday night in an effort to rehabilitate his image and criticize the Obama administration’s policies in Syria.

During an off-the-record dinner at Washington’s high-end St. Regis Hotel, a defiant Erdogan ripped the American media’s coverage of his administration’s policies and bashed the White House’s support for Kurdish fighters in Syria

Erdogan is in Washington to meet Vice President Joe Biden and attend the administration’s 2016 Nuclear Security Summit. But he is not expected to enjoy a formal meeting with President Barack Obama — a slight the White House explained away as scheduling issue but which has been widely perceived as sign of Obama’s frustration with Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian actions.

wasn't sure what thread to post this in but it's imo a powerful piece about american parents w/ radicalizing children & cooperation w/ the gov:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/10/us/parents-face-limited-options-to-keep-children-from-terrorism.html

as a parent i can't even imagine - you don't want to send your child to prison for decades but more you don't want them dying on a battlefield in syria or killing ppl domestically. i feel like there's a place for a non-govt interventionist org within the muslim community who parents can reach out to and they take dramatic deprogramming measures.

Do you guys think there's any sense in thinking about the Syrian civil war in terms of violent/nonviolent resistance? Seems like perhaps a lot of Syrians would have been less worse off suffering the injustice of Assad's regime than a civil war with no positive outcome in sight...

(this may be an offensively stupid question coming from a Scandinavian with no understanding of authoritarian regimes, ethnic groups in Syria etc etc, if so I'd like to apologize in advance)

Well, they tried non-violent resistance at first, but Assad responded by killing them.

Saying that a dictatorial regime is better than civil war doesn't make sense when it's the behaviour of the regime that leads to the war.

I suppose surrender was an option?

What does that have to do with violent/non-violent resistance?

hmm maybe not much, I'm having a hard time phrasing my question proper (which makes me suspect it's maybe not a good question)

but maybe violent resistance isn't the only alternative to non-violent resistance?

there's not really a single actor with the authority & power to make a decision. there's been a lot of snowballing to get to this point and so many factions are involved now it's the wrong way to look at it imo

yes I guess it's a very abstract, counterfactual/hypothetical way of thinking abt it - but not uncommon!

there's perhaps something intuitive about thinking in terms of whether a given dictatorship was better/worse than situation following war/revolution/... (I remember clearly how Saddam's oppressive regime was supposed to be good reason for invading Iraq)

There's a giant difference between those two, in that in Syria the people rose up themselves.

totally agree, my idea was just to give another example of this type of thinking (a terrible one!)

So on another idea--I read a moderate suggest that when Obama says he did not want to bomb Assad after O's own red line threat because it would escalate a war with Iran and Russia on 1 side, various weaker rebel groups on the other side, plus ISIS and other terrorists around; and would be done with the knowledge of how poorly Iraq and Afghanistan have been going for years...that he was getting the wrong message. The moderate suggested that the US success bombing in the Balkans in the 90s, and Russia's success so far in Syria, show that a big power can use force successfully without worsening things.

Forgot where I read this...Might have just been a Washington Post columnist

people rose up in iraq, but they were put down. syria has been very delicately positioned wrt regional and other powers for a long time so a straightforward purely domestic/internal revolution was never really on the cards, although thigs have been chaotic and unpredictable. with hindsight i think it's easy to say it would have been better if there was no attempt to overthrow assad but it's not necessarily instructive for other cases. there was a sobering survey of young arab opinion in the news today which indicated a huge shift in priorities from democracy to stability.

a good lesson for all of us

The first lesson is probably to avoid situations like this: 'Syria has been very delicately positioned wrt regional and other powers for a long time so a straightforward purely domestic/internal revolution was never really on the cards' Though that's obviously not particularly easy to dismantle.

I think this is always the case; the geopolitical conditions have to be favourable in order for a revolution to be a success