Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

Pardon me, I'm having a private message Facebook brawl with a good friend who called Sanders a Jacobin and a crazy man yelling in the streets and has posted reams of link showing how trade deals have actually been good for forcing Columbia and Mexico to care about the environment.

eephus, people certainly made that argument in 2008, i.e., that Clinton won more Democrats (and Dem-stronghold states) than Obama.

I've never understood this tack of "Hillary can't win because her strength is in Republican states where Dems won't win anyway." You could say the same thing about Sanders winning in states where Democrats ARE going to win anyway. The relevant question is who's going to win the swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa,.... I think Clinton looks strong in those states, especially the biggest ones.

There's a more nuanced version of the argument that's more compellling -- that Clinton is doing better in closed-primary states, where independents (who favor Sanders, and who matter in the general) are excluded. But not as many people are making that argument.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, March 16, 2016 10:09 AM (24 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Almost no argument trying to extrapolate general election results from primary results means anything, and a lot of these arguments are especially bad.

wd love to see more republicans coming out against trump, but at the same time, nobody really wants a repeat of 1824's "corrupt bargain" debacle

Rick Scott announces that he endorses Trump. Happy?

hey, 1824 was a p good year for me

oh no, not 1824! All the STDs.

54% that Trump wins on the first ballot
20% that Trump wins on the second or more ballot
13% that Cruz wins on the second or more ballot
11% that Kasich wins on the second or more ballot
1% that Paul Ryan wins on the second or more ballot

I think the predictwise guy putting numbers on 1) something that hasn't happened in a century (?) and 2) involves a wide spectrum of loony flailers suggests that this is on a par with astrology.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8

time for a new thread? this one is becoming impossible to load.

Impossible to believe too.

impossible to keep my food down too

If you're trying to load the entire thread every time you click on it, you're ILXing wrong.

post less

flappy bird just use bookmarks

[Grayson]'s a world class asshole

This matches what I've heard about him.

It moves so fast that if you slumber just a little bit, it's hard to see the posts immediately prior to the current convo without loading all 5,000+.

Somehow I wound up on Grayson's email list, and I know this isn't the best measure but he comes off as the opportunistic douchebag.

*an

It moves so fast that if you slumber just a little bit, it's hard to see the posts immediately prior to the current convo without loading all 5,000+.

No really - bookmark is for this.

I think the predictwise guy putting numbers on 1) something that hasn't happened in a century (?) and 2) involves a wide spectrum of loony flailers suggests that this is on a par with astrology.

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, March 16, 2016 12:34 PM (21 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well yeah, but when your predictions are 50/50 which is what he's saying the chance of a contested convention is, and what he's saying the chance of trump winning in the second or later round, he's not actually making very strong claims. so i guess in that sense you're right, it is like astrology.

loved bernie but relieved the dem contest is effectively over

extra time to get used to the worst election ever

2000 is a high standard but i think we can do it

relieved the dem contest is effectively over

Now is the part where everybody comes together for a group hug and sings kumbayah, right?

NYT page 1 feature today: the most disliked in-party nominees-in-waiting ever

when even the Times has a clue, look out

xp
The evil of two lessers.

i grant that bernie supporters need a few more days to mourn but [as per my fb feed] if they continue threatening to vote for trump, or making up new mathematical models to demonstrate that bernie is sure to be the nominee, or swearing to sit out the election bc of their disappointment, as opposed to actually finding candidates that can still win and putting all their energy behind them, i'm giving up on the american left as ever amounting to anything but a bunch of babies.

dems shouldn't have run Bush 3.0

Please don't go Mordy

leave Obama out of this

there is no American Left; fuck voting for a fascist or a militarist, piss on em hard

state and local seems to be successful. the left has made a lot of progress on social issues. look at gay marriage and medical marijuana. in 2000 Vermont was the first state to grant those rights. we've all heard the argument that Vermont is crazy liberal town and nothing coming from there could play on the national stage yet here we are 16 years later and all 50 states have it, with a majority opinion written by a SC justice appointed by Ronald Reagan no less.

if your definition of left success depends wholly on the election of a single person on the national stage you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

those rights i meant same sex marriage in particular there

The left is winning the culture wars but not the economic wars.

i grant that bernie supporters need a few more days to mourn but [as per my fb feed] if they continue threatening to vote for trump, or making up new mathematical models to demonstrate that bernie is sure to be the nominee, or swearing to sit out the election bc of their disappointment, as opposed to actually finding candidates that can still win and putting all their energy behind them, i'm giving up on the american left as ever amounting to anything but a bunch of babies.

― Mordy, Wednesday, March 16, 2016 12:08 PM (12 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The problem is that the people you describe are not the American left but are indeed still a bunch of babies.

I know I'm preaching to the choir, but anyone actually saying 'well, if not Bernie then Trump' is functioning on roughly a third-grade level and should be, I dunno...chemically castrated, maybe? Is that going too far?

also fuck the unanimous "it's over" shit. This is why ppl won't fucking vote in the remaining primaries.

Looking fwd to casting my 'meaningless' Sanders vote on April 19. It will become extra meaningless the second he endorses HRH; hoping he doesn't.

"Well, if I don't get that job I wanted, maybe I'll just feed my left arm to a dog. Same difference."

seeing a lot of people post this today.... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rep-alan-grayson/democratic-presidential-primary-2_b_9459766.html
not realistic but i hope bernie stays in until it's mathematically impossible for him to win...

alan grayson is a dipshit and (as noted upthread) an asshole

i'm pro-legal-weed but it's hard for me to see it as a left issue when it means potentially gargantuan new private profits from a new and lucrative industry, and when the ban and cultural stigma it's chipping away at doesn't really make any 2016 political sense at all (unless trump starts talking tomorrow about mariowhanna-crazed mexican rapists/axe-murderers, which i guess is within possibility) (and unless you frame legalization as a blow against big pharma, which i think big pharma will recover from) -- i mean, was the repeal of prohibition a leftist victory? prohibition itself was arguably closer.

trump's gonna pick up a bunch of conveniently angry, conveniently unblack bernie voters but i'd hardly call those people the american left. (i bet they're pro-legal-weed tho.)

Trump said Wednesday that a contested GOP convention could be a disaster if he goes to Cleveland a few delegates shy of 1,237 — and doesn’t leave as the party’s nominee.

“I think you’d have riots,” Trump said on CNN.

Noting that he’s “representing many millions of people,” he told Chris Cuomo: “If you disenfranchise those people, and you say, ‘I’m sorry, you’re 100 votes short’…I think you’d have problems like you’ve never seen before. I think bad things would happen.”

O RLY

Mordy just being an idiot

weed one of those issues that gets confusing through a left-right lens because of the american right's weird sensual race-haunted exceptions to their ideas of Freedom

"as opposed to actually finding candidates that can still win and putting all their energy behind them"

This is spectactular horseshit, of course.

how so? bc it seems like you can continue to phonebank and send money to bernie or you can pivot to other races that you can still win but there's zero sum in terms of dollars + focus here.

umm... weed should first and foremost be treated as an issue of social justice, both on the racial disparity/criminal justice reform side and affordable use medicinally vs opioid painkillers/etc.

the reasoning to keep campaigning for bernie if he can't win doesn't make a ton of sense. i've heard this idea that the longer he campaigns the more it keeps hillary from pivoting to the center but if you think she's just waiting for bernie to dropout before she sells out the left then what difference does it make if she starts selling them out now or in july.

otoh Bernie was never going to win so why campaign for him at all by that token?

Naturally, this "I think you'd have riots" bullshit is Trump yet again giving his barely-retrained hordes his tacit approval to do just that when the time comes.