Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

everyone should vote how they want to btw

adolescent conception

This counts as the "be an ADULT" argument, i collect $200

誤訳侮辱, you're definitely a music critic

i don't see how hillary can possibly win this thing without the bitter shitty film-critic vote. morbz, if i promise i don't give a fuck who you vote for or what you think about anything ever will you promise to stop making the same post over and over again as though there were still posters on ilx who weren't tired of your self-righteous broken record ignoramus shtick?

誤訳侮辱, you're definitely a music critic

20 years in the game this November. What's your point?

i'm not a film critic

xp

"hey guys, i'm an old dude who lives in NY with real important opinions about how bad politicians are. watch me state them repeatedly interspersed w/ brief unfulfilled threats to stop posting."

is this the part of the thread where we state plain facts as if they are inherently insults

xxxxxpost

As much as I don't agree with Morbz on various things, I always enjoy his contributions to these conversations, just as alternate POVs. Keeps life interesting. Given the history of conflict on this forum - back circa 2001 shit got so vicious that I suspect fistfights would've erupted had some posters been in the same physical space - it's fascinating that so many of y'all (and I love all of you, don't get anything twisted) get so bent outta shape by the Dr.

aw c'mon he enjoys the tug of war too, he creates the needed equilibrium to remind everybody else we're all (mostly) on the same side.

nope

http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/jmFpJHLB03IcL63lT_g1Uw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztxPTg1/http://l.yimg.com/os/publish-images/sports/2016-03-24/10848b90-f1fd-11e5-b662-6bf9657049d9_cespedesball.gif

I'm not voting GOP.

Didn't say you were. But you mentioned nothing about turnout.

Keeps life interesting. Given the history of conflict on this forum - back circa 2001 shit got so vicious that I suspect fistfights would've erupted had some posters been in the same physical space - it's fascinating that so many of y'all (and I love all of you, don't get anything twisted) get so bent outta shape by the Dr.

I still do! I'd tell him the same thing should we ever meet. He's the one telling me whom to piss on.

I haven't and wouldn't vote for either cretin ever for anything, not in Ohio or Florida either. This sophistry about "a vote for/not for _____ is REALLY a vote for _____" is the worst cable-carnival garbage

This is otmfm (as is Morbs itt).

i've been waiting for Nader to chime in. i remember him getting refused entry into Democratic debates even though he had a ticket. like the police showed up and told him he would be arrested and all.

Morbs otm as usual.

back circa 2001 shit got so vicious that I suspect fistfights would've erupted had some posters been in the same physical space

link plz

I voted for Nader in 2004, no regrets.

"i've been waiting for Nader to chime in. i remember him getting refused entry into Democratic debates even though he had a ticket."

Was the National debates he was refused entry from.

ok then he was refused entry to the Democratic-Republican debates

As much as I don't agree with Morbz on various things, I always enjoy his contributions to these conversations, just as alternate POVs. Keeps life interestin

Morbz is classic, he should run for President next time round.

With gabbnebb as veep

... though if a bird landed on his podium during a speech he'd probably bite its head off. (xp)

adolescent conception

This counts as the "be an ADULT" argument, i collect $200

LOL, from the fucko who told people to "put on their pajamas" in the fucking Batman movie thread, don't you even ever get bored with yourself?

adult in the cinema, child at the ballot box - this is what democracy looks like

Hey guys I'm just returning from eight months of mission work in Angola and trying to get caught up. Figured I'd start here but this page takes sooooooo long to load now, using my bookmark.

So what's happening? I mean I'm sure Jeb is way out in front w/ delegates...just please please please just tell me there's no chance (nightmare scenario) Scott Walker gets nominated. On the other hand that would p spell the end of the Republican party.

It's pretty much down to Heidi Cruz and Melania Trump at this point.

Walker was fatally stabbed by some goons later linked to the Perry campaign (though I'm not sure we ever got real confirmation of that) which took him out too; there were some kinda crazy and chaotic debates which is why the threads are so long but the short version is that Jim Gilmore, barring some really unlikely developments, is sailing to the nom. I can't remember though, who was Jeb?

Hmm Gilmore, interesting. A year for dark horses then.

Heidi Cruz, Melanoma Trump....these are rank-and-file house members I guess? Politics is so unpredictable.

Btw though: kinda big night for Sanders right? I mean he was projected to win those states (though I remember rumblings about how the HI dem machine would work in Clinton's favor), but I don't have a sense of by how much he was expected to win. Only WA is really delegate-rich but I'd be interested to see thoughtful writing on those contests, their demographics, etc.

BERNIE Sanders?

Also—last question— caught a few minutes of Gwen Ifill on PBS News Hour... the little box above her shoulder said "Election 2016" but she was talking about, like, Guy Fieri's penis or something?

xp It was a big night, Sanders definitely overperformed.

Washington, the largest prize Saturday with 101 delegates in play, was a vital state for Mr. Sanders, whose prospects of capturing the nomination dimmed after double-digit losses to Mrs. Clinton across the South and weak showings in delegate-rich Ohio, Florida and North Carolina this month. As of Saturday evening, Mrs. Clinton had roughly 280 more pledged delegates, who are awarded based on voting, and 440 more superdelegates — party leaders and elected officials — than Mr. Sanders.

WI comes next which I think he'll win, but behind still over 200 delegates Sanders needs wins in upcoming states like NY (4/19, Hill +48 in latest Emerson poll), PA + MD (4/26, Hill +25 and +33) and CA + NJ (6/7). California looks winnable but none of the other ones do and while there are other more Bernie favorable states during this time period they're all tiny and these states are all huge. Unless my heart is right and the bird event means that his presidency is divinely ordained, I still don't see it happening. I was thinking before yesterday that if he made her non-viable in one or more of yesterday's states I might've felt that indicated a more dramatic reversal but just overperforming his polls in these places isn't sufficient. imho.

538's delegate tracker has him at 91% of his "target" now, and hillary at 107%. those should both rise a little, as not all of the delegates from last night have been awarded yet

what makes one non-viable? and how would one distinguish being "non-viable" from losing by 40-50 points?

i don't think either candidate is going to be shown to be "non-viable". polls have consistently shown that most democrats would be fine with either candidate as their nominee

if you go below 15% you get no delegates

Maybe I'm wrong, but the way I remember 2008 is that the pledged-delegate count was the one that was always front-and-center, and the superdelegates were an afterthought (because the feeling, which turned out to be exactly the case, was that they would drift over to Obama eventually). This year, on CNN and elsewhere, their delegate tracking always includes superdelegates. Seems unfair to Sanders.

if you go below 15% you get no delegates

― Mordy, Sunday, March 27, 2016 12:28 PM (2 minutes ago

oh i see what you mean

Unless the Democratic Party wants to tear itself in half in the same year the GOP is doing so just to even the playing field, I doubt that the superdelegates would want to thwart the apparent will of the people at the convention, if it came to that

xp in my calculation above i only counted pledged delegates which is really the insurmountable part to my eyes. now if bernie can win in most/all of NY, NJ, PA, CA i'd feel more optimistic about his campaign.

I got Bernie going from needing something 58.3% of the remaining pledged delegates before yesterday to now needing about 56.7%.

*something like

xp in my calculation above i only counted pledged delegates

You did, which is good. The most prominent delegate trackers don't.

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/democrat
NBC: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/
CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/

ABC's is a little better:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Election

fwiw the democratic nomination odds didn't shift at all in response to yesterday's results, which suggest they didn't exceed expectations to those people

I think Sanders supporters actually have a reasonable case for Sanders's strength in a general election. But I find it frustrating that when HRC racks up huge margins in, I dunno, Tennessee or Alabama, those states are dismissed by Sanders supporters as "the old South" and irrelevant in the general, whereas Sanders getting big wins in WA, AK, HI reads as an important indicator of Sanders's strength. I think when Sanders massively outperformed polls in Michigan there was a real question: have things moved decisively in his favor? Is he more popular than HRC in Florida, in Ohio, in Pennsylvania, the states where general elections are actually decided? I think he's been A LOT STRONGER in FL and OH, and will be stronger in PA, than anybody would have expected three months ago. But I don't see how to get around the fact that more Democrats in those states are voting for Clinton.

To me, the superdelegates are just placeholders, and shouldn't be reported at all. Unless the feeling this time is that they're a solid bulwark against Sanders winning, even if he started pulling (improbable) upsets in New York and Pennsylvania. And then you'd run into the problem silby mentions.

I think if Sanders makes another huge leap in popularity and wins big in places like NY, PA, MD -- seems unlikely to me but so does a lot of stuff that's actually happened -- HRC concedes graciously and campaigns hard for him in the general. She's a Democrat, she's a creature of the party, I think she cares a lot more about there being a Democrat in the White House than she cares whether it's her.

Yeah I don't understand why they are being reported as if they are already counted, exaggerating Clinton's lead.

Is there any chance Clinton gets indicted for the email server nonsense before she locks up enough delegates for the Democratic nomination? I have no idea how seriously to take that investigation since the online commentary about it is totally wackadoo.

I only read 538 on this stuff so I didn't even know other places were reporting superdelegate counts, agree there's no reason to

we've discussed it before and i still see no reason to consider it a serious possibility. xp