Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

honestly i wouldn't be surprised if in an unguarded moment trump had a good word for texan secession. and then in the same breath he'd accuse obama of being a traitor.

Hint: not a recent development; not a growing segment, either

― El Tomboto, Friday, June 24, 2016 11:44 AM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I've consistently stood by this belief, thinking that this particular demographic hadn't necessarily grown but had just become louder and more strident in recent years. Maybe Brexit just has me spooked but I'm starting to doubt atm.

xpost It isn't difficult to find examples of Trump espousing conflicting ideologies within a single long spray of word vomit.

guys:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CltzHqpWQAA8zs0.jpg

in case you can't see, those are golfballs with little swastikas on them

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CltzHqGXIAAtCNL.jpg

wtf is that for real? why???

it was a Satirical Prankster, prob not particularly helpfully.

it is absolutely for real

http://gawker.com/trump-delivered-his-scotland-press-conference-surrounde-1782552300

I posted that in the UK Politics thread earlier

Krugman: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/brexit-the-morning-after/?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region®ion=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

about sums up how I feel

It looks like Trump is riding one of these

http://www.china-mike.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/30-beijing-police-woman-segway.jpg

xpost Yeah, I'm mostly concerned about the people who will be directly affected by this. That FT excerpt, particularly the bit about a generation of Brits who've now lost the ability to freely live/work/travel throughout Europe, was heartbreaking to consider.

for my whole life i felt like the "never again" stuff almost needn’t be said because america—much less europe—wouldn’t slip en masse into the same kind of reactionary, vengeful politics that produced WWII

I actually think "never again" was continually present, indeed often used as cover for stuff people already wanted to do. Slobodan Milosevic was the new Hitler, and we needed to intervene because Never Again. Saddam Hussein was the new Hitler, and we needed to intervene because Never Again. Assad is the new Hitler, and we need to intervene because Never Again. Castro, Ghadaffi, Putin, etc.

Domestically speaking I see more hope than is evident here. A significant portion of right-wing spew is in reaction to their feeling the culture has gone too far in the direction of fairness, inclusion, and diversity. Well, why should anybody be surprised that this culture-war shit flames brightest when it feels most threatened? Can't we take a moment to reflect that those imagined "threats" can be read (from the cultural left) as some hints of actual progress - however qualified and incremental?

The poor oppressed cake-baker shit came up because marriage equality became mainstream.

The sudden love for the Confederate Battle flag (among otherwise hyper-patriotic AMERICA doodz) came up because mainstream culture woke up to it not being a cute Bo & Luke Duke bit of nostalgia.

The general whine of "political correctness is strangling this nation" has been brought about by most people not being cool with calling women dogs or mocking the disabled on a national stage.

The bathroom controversies have occurred because mainstream people are becoming just a bit more woke on sexual diversity.

Some of y'all are focusing on how this stuff (all of which is as old as the nation) is coming out into the fore. But I remember when retard jokes were normal and no one objected. Maybe it's worth focusing on the positive aspects of "political incorrectness" being flaunted all the more these days partly BECAUSE it is not - to majority culture - okay anymore. More and more people are calling out racism, more and more people are calling out sexism, more and more people are objecting to rape culture.

The sudden love for the Confederate Battle flag (among otherwise hyper-patriotic AMERICA doodz) came up because mainstream culture woke up to it not being a cute Bo & Luke Duke bit of nostalgia.

This was not "sudden" though, cf your Dukes of Hazzard example among others one could make.

Sudden, as in, when retailers decided to stop selling them post-Charleston, a whole bunch of people (who had not exactly marched with Longstreet) decided they badly needed to have one. Sudden, as in, when SC tried to remove it from the state capitol grounds, there was much whiny butthurt. Etc.

Speaking of calling out racism, this wannabe Congresscritter's bullshit popped up on my FB today, and conservatives immediately jumped in to say it wasn't real. Uh yes, it is.

http://ricktylerforcongress.com/

Your post is booming, Puffin. In more lucid moments, I'm absolutely grateful for the fact that the US is in many ways the most progressive it's ever been (although with miles still to go, obvs). The panic keeps me from getting complacent, but I am trying to focus more on the positive because there's lots to be found.

Is that the 'Make America White Again' motherfucker? Ah, those halcyon days when America was 100% Anglo-Saxon. It's not enough to just be massively racist, you have to be the dumbest racist in the room.

xp also, Sudden, as in, I travel widely in the VA/WV/MD/PA, and actually saw more (and larger) CBFs flown in the past year than ever before, all evidently with the attitude of "fuck you, don't tell me I can't wave this sucker."

In my childhood in Virginia it was clearly more a reference to 1965 than 1865 - and acknowledged as such. In West Virginia, western Maryland, and Pennsylvania - none of which has much CSA heritage - it was shorthand for a general resistance to Federal power, modernity, and polite society. Also affection for backwardness and cussedness (with, of course, a heapin' helpin' of ugly racism). But as far as I can tell it increased in the last year partly because of the "fuck you, I'll do what I want" factor.

Which, while hideous and ugly and hateful, is some slight evidence that the overall culture has slipped away from these sad-ass hillbilly fuckwads. And they know it.

I try not to be complacent about the current state of US political progressivism because, however close to their death throes the reactionaries might be, I'm not going to be the one to suffer when the backlash happens, but a lot of my friends are.

not that it's anything to freak out about yet but clinton is only up .5 points in PA acc to the realclearpolitics average :/

xp also, Sudden, as in, I travel widely in the VA/WV/MD/PA, and actually saw more (and larger) CBFs flown in the past year than ever before, all evidently with the attitude of "fuck you, don't tell me I can't wave this sucker."

In my childhood in Virginia it was clearly more a reference to 1965 than 1865 - and acknowledged as such. In West Virginia, western Maryland, and Pennsylvania - none of which has much CSA heritage - it was shorthand for a general resistance to Federal power, modernity, and polite society. Also affection for backwardness and cussedness (with, of course, a heapin' helpin' of ugly racism). But as far as I can tell it increased in the last year partly because of the "fuck you, I'll do what I want" factor.

Which, while hideous and ugly and hateful, is some slight evidence that the overall culture has slipped away from these sad-ass hillbilly fuckwads. And they know it.

When you say "a reference to 1965", do you mean "a reference to the intimidation tactics used against the Civil Rights Movement"? Right now, I'm not seeing how that iteration was more benign than what you're describing as more recent behavior.

Mainly, massive resistance to school desegregation. No, it was absolutely not more benign than more recent behavior, and didn't intend to imply so.

But I do see glimmers of hope in current objections to overt racism - I can understand why those glimmers aren't much consolation when it's you and your loved ones in the crosshairs.

But it's not like mainstream culture is cheering on guys like the "make America white again" guy. Indeed, there was widespread outcry, lots of negative publicity, and the billboard was taken down quickly.

That would not have been the reaction in 1965. Can we concede that there may have been some progress here is what I am asking.

I don't think anyone can reasonably deny that progress has been made. I think the more pressing question is "how tenuous is the foundation that this progress has been built upon?"

^^^ yes

Yeah, all these post Brexit dips hits saying "I didn't mean it," "I wish I could vote again, is it too late," or "I didn't think it would actually pass" stuff really underscores the playing with fire aspect of Trump. "It was just a protest vote," "I didn't think he could be elected," "yeah, I don't like immigrants, but I didn't think he would actually deport people and build a wall, I have a lot of Mexican friends!" It could happen. It might happen.

it won't happen

kinda annoyed by all these "it could happen here!" post-mortems, US prez elections are not like UK referendums, no matter what any underlying similarities between electorates are

It actually can't. Say what you want about how stupid and backwards the electoral college is but his path to victory is demographically improbable to an extreme.

hey i'm guilty of it feeling like it's more of a possibility then i did yesterday

I mean, I get that it is statistically unlikely, or improbably, but the dude cruised into clinching the fucking nomination of one of two major parties in the United States. I take comfort in the odds, but not so much that I think it's impossible. Like all these dummies waking up to a new England.

All I know is that for all our flaws I am thankful we are a Republic and not a strict democracy, but god help the US if we ever allow national referendum votes of this magnitude.

when can we vote on a Texit?

South CaroliNOPE

Minneseeya

Idaloha

Arkansayonara

I wish.

I mean, I get that it is statistically unlikely, or improbably, but the dude cruised into clinching the fucking nomination of one of two major parties in the United States. I take comfort in the odds, but not so much that I think it's impossible. Like all these dummies waking up to a new England.

― Josh in Chicag

it's easier to win the nomination of a political party than to win electoral votes

XPS...and it seemed like the Texas secessionist chumps had finally shut up about that shit until this morning.

it's easier to win the nomination of a political party than to win electoral votes

it won't happen

― Οὖτις, Friday, June 24, 2016 4:59 PM (33 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

kinda annoyed by all these "it could happen here!" post-mortems, US prez elections are not like UK referendums, no matter what any underlying similarities between electorates are

― Οὖτις, Friday, June 24, 2016 5:00 PM (32 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It actually can't. Say what you want about how stupid and backwards the electoral college is but his path to victory is demographically improbable to an extreme.

― El Tomboto, Friday, June 24, 2016 5:03 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm jesus everybody

there is literally a greater chance that obama declares himself dictator and president for life than there is that trump becomes the nominee

― iatee, Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:22 PM (11 months ago)

his getting the nomination was def statistically improbable in July 2015

however, as Alfred notes, party nominations /= general elections, and there are major structural reasons for that.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/24/the_u_k_is_87_percent_white.html

most of the reasons ppl (including myself) thought Trump was a longshot was based on what turned out to be incorrect assumptions not about the GOP electorate but about the GOP establishment - that they would get their shit together behind a single candidate, that they would throw procedural obstacles in Trump's way, that they would encourage attacks on Trump rather than attempts at co-opting his voter base, etc. And they didn't do any of that because their weaklings and cowards.

But the general election is totally different - the voter base is different, the way its structured is different, the requirements for winning are different, the obstacles facing Trump are different, and, perhaps most importantly, his opposition is united, larger, better funded, and better organized. And the united, larger, better funded, better organized party wins presidential elections.

even if he loses (which will almost certainly happen)... i still don't enjoy living in a country where 45% or 40% of 35% or whatever% of folks will vote for donald fucking trump for ANYTHING. that's not a country with a healthy electorate.

no argument there

I wonder how the perceived social unacceptability of a voting choice affects the magnitude of polling error. Like, not just that voters are generally unwilling to admit to intending to make a socially unacceptable vote, but that the strength of the effect would continue to get stronger as the position becomes more repugnant. What I'm saying is that I suspect that Trump will have a much larger than typical "silent" contingent, leading him to outperform the polls.

I know this is addressed by differences between live caller and robo-polls, but some choices (like intent to vote for Trump) might be considered too shameful to admit even to a machine.

this has made the rounds: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/

there is literally a greater chance that obama declares himself dictator and president for life than there is that trump becomes the nominee

― iatee, Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:22 PM (11 months ago)

― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, June 24, 2016 4:37 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I just thought there was a very high chance of obama declaring himself dictator and president for life. I get most of my political info from morbs.