Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

I wish.

I mean, I get that it is statistically unlikely, or improbably, but the dude cruised into clinching the fucking nomination of one of two major parties in the United States. I take comfort in the odds, but not so much that I think it's impossible. Like all these dummies waking up to a new England.

― Josh in Chicag

it's easier to win the nomination of a political party than to win electoral votes

XPS...and it seemed like the Texas secessionist chumps had finally shut up about that shit until this morning.

it's easier to win the nomination of a political party than to win electoral votes

it won't happen

― Οὖτις, Friday, June 24, 2016 4:59 PM (33 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

kinda annoyed by all these "it could happen here!" post-mortems, US prez elections are not like UK referendums, no matter what any underlying similarities between electorates are

― Οὖτις, Friday, June 24, 2016 5:00 PM (32 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It actually can't. Say what you want about how stupid and backwards the electoral college is but his path to victory is demographically improbable to an extreme.

― El Tomboto, Friday, June 24, 2016 5:03 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm jesus everybody

there is literally a greater chance that obama declares himself dictator and president for life than there is that trump becomes the nominee

― iatee, Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:22 PM (11 months ago)

his getting the nomination was def statistically improbable in July 2015

however, as Alfred notes, party nominations /= general elections, and there are major structural reasons for that.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/06/24/the_u_k_is_87_percent_white.html

most of the reasons ppl (including myself) thought Trump was a longshot was based on what turned out to be incorrect assumptions not about the GOP electorate but about the GOP establishment - that they would get their shit together behind a single candidate, that they would throw procedural obstacles in Trump's way, that they would encourage attacks on Trump rather than attempts at co-opting his voter base, etc. And they didn't do any of that because their weaklings and cowards.

But the general election is totally different - the voter base is different, the way its structured is different, the requirements for winning are different, the obstacles facing Trump are different, and, perhaps most importantly, his opposition is united, larger, better funded, and better organized. And the united, larger, better funded, better organized party wins presidential elections.

even if he loses (which will almost certainly happen)... i still don't enjoy living in a country where 45% or 40% of 35% or whatever% of folks will vote for donald fucking trump for ANYTHING. that's not a country with a healthy electorate.

no argument there

I wonder how the perceived social unacceptability of a voting choice affects the magnitude of polling error. Like, not just that voters are generally unwilling to admit to intending to make a socially unacceptable vote, but that the strength of the effect would continue to get stronger as the position becomes more repugnant. What I'm saying is that I suspect that Trump will have a much larger than typical "silent" contingent, leading him to outperform the polls.

I know this is addressed by differences between live caller and robo-polls, but some choices (like intent to vote for Trump) might be considered too shameful to admit even to a machine.

this has made the rounds: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/

there is literally a greater chance that obama declares himself dictator and president for life than there is that trump becomes the nominee

― iatee, Wednesday, July 22, 2015 6:22 PM (11 months ago)

― (The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Friday, June 24, 2016 4:37 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I just thought there was a very high chance of obama declaring himself dictator and president for life. I get most of my political info from morbs.

There's still chance

https://www.askideas.com/media/08/Everyone-Chill-The-Fuck-Out-Funny-Obama-Meme.jpg

remember hope

That Trump has 70% negative approval ratings or whatever is small solace when only 55% of Americans bother to vote. Though I gotta assume some part of his 30% of diehards won't vote, either, because American Ninja Warrior or something is on.

It reminds me of:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDoncJckows

Though I gotta assume some part of his 30% of diehards won't vote, either, because American Ninja Warrior or something is on

this is actually a salient point, given how underfunded GOP GOTV efforts are likely to be. If you don't constantly remind people to vote/drive them to the polls/tell them where their polling place is/make sure they mail their absentee ballot... then people don't really vote.

That Trump has 70% negative approval ratings or whatever is small solace when only 55% of Americans bother to vote.

ppl all yelling at each other on cnn

p good. one guy said, "should he (trump) have gone to some left wing european socialist golf club instead? would that make you happy?"

I don't know guys. Voting for Trump will be a milestone political action for a lot of citizens, and I wouldn't take the risk assuming they won't show up. That's how you end up with Rob Ford, or Brexit.

It was certainly a weird experience for me watching the results roll in last night and hoping to see low turnouts.

democracy is great, except when hamas/boris/trump win

he will lose but the fires of white populism have been stoked. the democrats need to work on countering trumpism with a progressive counter-narrative that speaks to people's concerns. it's not the dems' "fault" american whites decided to scapegoat immigrants en masse, but they could have done more to prevent at least some of those people from going down that road. imo.

ppl all yelling at each other on cnn

― Treeship, Friday, June 24, 2016

I've seen that show.

it's your fave and idgi

Not the last few months. The Trump din is wearing--I basically tuned out weeks ago.

he will lose but the fires of white populism have been stoked. the democrats need to work on countering trumpism with a progressive counter-narrative that speaks to people's concerns. it's not the dems' "fault" american whites decided to scapegoat immigrants en masse, but they could have done more to prevent at least some of those people from going down that road. imo.

― Treeship, Friday, June 24, 2016 7:57 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

always been there one way or another afaic

i'm starting to have an allergic reaction to the whole 'the liberals should wake up to the very notion that there is racism in western countries', as if liberals haven't been victims of racism, xenophobia, sexism and homophobia over past few decades. maybe it just happens that there is whole swaths of the population we simply don't agree with, never did and never will. it's not up to liberals to pander to their bigoted demands (they can't anyway) but them to adapt to a new reality.

I just thought there was a very high chance of obama declaring himself dictator and president for life. I get most of my political info from morbs.

a for effort here but yr future predictions will be measured against this one

xp i am not talking about pandering to bigoted demands, i am talking about making sure people know that a progressive government will give them more economic security, that it's not immigrants who made them lose their pensions, etc

for some people racism, sexism, and homophobia will always be the core of their politics. the dems don't need those people and shouldn't want them. but i am pretty sure there are others who are seduced by hate because it provides them with clear explanations for complex problems.

can't believe iatee usta march with me at OWS b4 he went to the darkside *snif*

but lol there is no need for US dictators when there are voters with low standards (no display names plz)

just got a robocall from Obomber telling me to vote for Jerry Nadler (who is in zero danger of losing his primary Tuesday); i listened for at least 8 seconds

for some people racism, sexism, and homophobia will always be the core of their politics

Agree completely; Archie Bunker was nonfiction.

However I still think that one reason those guys are spewing their shit with more volume and force these days is the same as the reason they're electorally doomed, which is the same as the reason that (long term) they're culturally doomed as well. Hit a beehive with a baseball bat and the bees will make a lot of noise; it doesn't mean they're winning. They may call the forces arrayed against them "social justice warriors" or "libtards" or "crybullies" or "liberal fascism" or "political correctness," whatevs. They are squealing louder these days - at least partly - because they sense they're losing, in the larger culture.

That was not true 25 or 50 years ago. No one would have challenged "make America white again" guy. No one would have been exercised about bakers or wedding photographers, because the phrase "gay marriage" would have made as much sense as "transatlantic penguin flights." An African American president, or a decent chance at a woman president? Get outta here.

can't wait for next liberal administration to ensure transatlantic penguin flights

_I just thought there was a very high chance of obama declaring himself dictator and president for life. I get most of my political info from morbs._

a for effort here but yr future predictions will be measured against this one

I think we've entered a world where it's safer just not to make predictions

can't wait for next liberal administration? Boy, don't I know the feeling! Been a long, long time since 1964.

^quality post

American Ninja Warrior is on?

If people believe that because Brexit won, therefore Trump will win, I offer the following:; if Brexit turns out to be economically disastrous in the coming months, then that might potentially blunt the Trump train's progress, right?

This presents a paradox: American liberals might be forgiven, for rooting for Britain's economy to tank; Trumpoids should be rooting for Britain's economy to succeed.

short of england being reduced to a radioactive wasteland in the next four months, few american voters will care or connect it in any way with their own issues

Where is england anyway

I expect few if any Trump voters will connect Brexit's failure or success with their enthusiasm for Trump and his Mexican wall. If somehow the US economy takes a dive between now and November due to Brexit fallout, I think that would be more likely to reinforce their desire for reactionary lashing out than to chasten them into meekly submitting to reasonableness.

"meekly submit to reasonableness" = new Clinton campaign slogan

Fucked xxp

wasn't that already her slogan?

I don't always meekly submit. But when I do, I prefer to meekly submit to reasonableness.

http://www.jill2016.com/stein_calls_britain_vote_a_wake_up_call