Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

isn't it that, in some sense, the extremity of their evangelicism requires them to take converts at their word and try to help them along? plus all the cynicism and moronicism etc.

There's also a flavor of Envangelicalism that prioritizes the conversion experience, the repentance, so much that for the power of Jesus' name to win over a terrible sinner is more valued than an average person. Really a terrible loophole for just asking con men to come along and get saved. And yes, the community has to throw their doors open to such a person because to do anything else would mean doubting Jesus' power to redeem souls.

Ah sorry much what j said.

i can appreciate that (grew up Southern Baptist), but i'd love to see the response from these camps if Clinton were to claim "born again" status

Dobson types don't consider Methodism or other forms of Protestantism true Christianity or true capitalism.

just asking con men to come along and get saved

being "saved" is itself a con, so you know, like meets like...

really blowin minds there amateurist

Two polls:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/in-new-poll-support-for-trump-plunges-giving-clinton-a-double-digit-lead/2016/06/25/0565bef6-3a31-11e6-a254-2b336e293a3c_story.html

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-weathers-stormy-month-loses-only-2-points-versus-hillary-clinton-1466946000

The first comports with what many people think will happen, but it's early.

Latest Ipsos-Reuters poll has it 46.6 Clinton, 33.3 Trump, 20.1 neither.

can't read either due to article limits, good job old media

If past is prologue, then each candidate should improve their numbers after their respective conventions.

If Trump lags similarly badly by mid-September, not only will it indicate a big loss coming, but could easily create a reverse bandwagon with voters jumping off the Trump wagon so as not to be associated with a big loser. They may not jump onto HRC's wagon, but it wouldn't matter. One can hope this comes to pass. It could. He's awful in ways we've never seen in awful candidates before.

The poll, conducted in the immediate aftermath of a massacre in Orlando that was perpetrated by a man who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State, showed Obama’s approval rating at 56 percent — its highest level in Post polling since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Obama is more popular now than Republicans George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush in the waning months of their presidencies. Although Obama’s approval rating has not reached the level of former Democratic president Bill Clinton’s in 2000, his standing suggests that he could be a relatively effective surrogate for Hillary Clinton on the campaign trail.

http://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/trump-s-fundraising-email-a-60-spam-rate/304673/

I remember staying at a big motel in western North Dakota a couple years ago at the peak of the oil boom and there were easily100 brand new giant white pickups in the lot dwarfing our Honda Fit. I was wondering the other day how many of them have been repoed since then.

And wrong thread

“You got to cut him some slack,” Dr. Dobson said. “He didn’t grow up like we did.”

He didn't get beaten with a stick from an early age?

dobson on bill clinton in 1998:

https://thewayofimprovement.com/2016/06/25/james-dobson-on-the-character-of-the-president-of-the-united-states

includes words of praise for christian man/courageous public servant/disgraced former baylor president ken starr

see, you have to be Born Again AND be a Republican for it to count (cf Jimmy Carter)

or, you know, at least say out loud you are both things.

the born again stuff w/ trump seems so calculated and cynical that i feel like as a believer i would be offended to hear him say it and not relieved. but maybe born again puts more weight into the words + exterior manifestation than judaism does (which theologically often concerns itself w/ internal, or hidden processes, aka p'nimiyut. it's just too obviously bullshit.

two corinthians, twice as good as one corinthian

there's something deeply weird about this particular "born-again" announcement. it's true that evangelical christianity is about the conversion experience and not about the continuing journey, but it also expects sudden, dramatic, and immediate change. dobson asking for patience with trump because he is a "baby christian" is completely at odds with the entire structure of charismatic christianity, which is totally about the sudden heel-face turn. he's supposed to be filled with the spirit of the lord and, basically, be infallible. also to totally renounce his old life. bob dylan's born-again period is a pretty good example here.

...or Daniel Plainview's.

This is a beautiful gem from a CNN story about whether Trump is hurting himself (let's hope!):

Trump's free flowing style and unconventional political persona played a key role in his success in dispatching what had been billed as the most talented crop of Republican primary candidates in a generation.

can't read either due to article limits, good job old media

Try using private/incognito mode

I saw that spin many times during the early stages of the campaign, and I have to think even many GOP party faithful realized that was bullshit, and that part of Trump's appeal was his ability to bully and belittle them and show them up as UNtalented. (Of course many of them are now crawling back to him...) xp

Alternatively

https://i.imgur.com/j1F9yXZ.gif

xp

I thought it was generally accepted at this point that Trump clambered to the top of the republican heap because a) name recognition, b) no one took him seriously until it was too late, and c) this was arguably the least talented crop of Republican primary candidates in a generation (and certainly the most 'who's that?' crop as far as the general public is concerned). Oh and also d) super racist, you can't even believe how racist.

I got the impression that if you were following political news at all (even if you were ignoring horse-race stuff), you'd probably have heard of Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Perry, Santorum - though the last two from their time in the spotlight last time.

having a super-crowded field splitting the traditional conservative vote while you rake in 100% of the crazy racist shitbag vote definitely helped matters a bit

Carson was new to the political stage, Fiorina was a washed-up corporate type who'd lost a Senate race years ago, Perry was a major loser from last time - Bush, Rubio, and Walker were the people with the hype around them before Trump jumped in the ring. Maybe Santorum I guess. Cruz was radioactive to party types. Then there were the further "second-tier debate only" clown-car characters... the notion that these sixteen people were some murderer's row of all-star Republican talent is laughable. I'm not sure if they have great candidates waiting in the wings but if they did they'd probably have stayed home to avoid facing Hillary Clinton. The people who were supposed to be the front-runners turned out to have baggage they couldn't get around and/or really awful campaign/debate skills, with or without Trump.

If the year had started with some actually really popular, charismatic, good-campaigner Generic Republican with reasonable name recognition, a lot of the clowns would not have even been trying in the first place, and it certainly would not have gotten to where Trump could lead a 17-person field while polling at 20-25%. Like... some ex-general who'd written a best-seller and talked about low taxes and small businesses a lot, in a folksy but seasoned kinda voice, and was not the brother of George W. Bush... I really think half these goobers would have never gotten in, and Trump would have ended up a Pat Buchanan. I realize this is fanfic and that person did not, it seems, exist, but "the most talented crop" etc. is just lolsy.

I was surprised this year to learn what a dweeb Rubio was. Previously, I had only heard mutterings of him as a fresh faced "rising star" in the GOP.

It's really difficult to wrap my head around how hapless the republicans have become. I mean, I'm pretty psyched about it, but it's baffling nonetheless.

in-breeding will do that

“Donald Trump says he'll make America great again,” Warren said, invoking Trump’s ubiquitous campaign slogan. “It's right there. It's stamped on the front of his goofy hat. You want to see goofy? Look at him in that hat.”

Yeah, I should have made clearer that I was only addressing the "Who's that?" aspect - they are clowns to a man (or woman).

I've said it before, though, but these are the big guns - when it was Mitt vs Santorum vs Perry in 2012, Right-wing pundits were begging and pleading for Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rubio to come on down and save us from this - conventional wisdom was that they were keeping their powder dry against a popular president, but 2016 would be when titans would walk the earth again.

(or, Old Lunch OTM)

it's not just that the republican candidates are terrible- it's that the republican party is dysfunctional to a point where it actively hamstrings anybody attempting to display the qualities that would make for good leadership. a lot of present-day conservatives' tactics have been cribbed from the sixties' left- this seems to include their factionalism and self-destructiveness.

They should take their post-Obama assessment to heart and take a few elections off.

surely there is a good republican somewhere who could have run. but I can't think of a single one.

Eastwood could've taken it if he wasn't 114.

I mean, I don't think he would've been a good choice, but better than Trump and probably able to take the nomination. Gotta think outside the box!

xps RNC seems to be sitting this election out, tbh.

here in indiana the most frequent claim is that mitch daniels could have taken any of the clowns they had to offer, but given what happened to kasich i have to regard the claim with a certain skepticism. theoretically ben sasse has potential, but i fully expect him to have been completely ruined one way or another by 2020.

I remember Bush and Rubio being awaited with bated breath, and maybe a little bit of rumbling around Christie as the potential to be whatever these same people thought Giuliani was going to be in 2008. But was Huckabee really expected to be something he hadn't been the last time around? Jindal might have looked good to some in 2012 but did anybody still feel that way by the start of 2015 with (like Christie) his home-state popularity in the toilet and no accomplishments to his name? I agree, though, that the structural problems are there.

I'm sure we've discussed this before, but the donor pool and Citizens United undoubtedly played a role also; the Republican primary rules and calendar are designed for a world where factional candidates take 2nds and 3rds in the first contests, but are unable to keep the money going and are forced to exit, leading to the rapid emergence of a consensus front-runner. Now they stick around, at least long enough to convince each of the viable candidates that if they just stick around a little longer they'll emerge as the consensus candidate. If things worked the way they do now in 1999-2000 it's possible George W. Bush would have struggled to get the nomination. I dunno.

I've said it before on this thread, but watch out for Nikki Haley. Relatively young governor who has decent political instincts (declined to support transgender bathroom legislation in SC, supported bringing down the Confederate flag in the capital) and at least appears to project an aura of competence. Also gender, racial background, etc.

I feel like it's easy to look at the GOP field as a total batch of jokers now, but I bet 3-4 of them would have been a "solid" GOP nominee as recently as 2008. I think this:

the republican party is dysfunctional to a point where it actively hamstrings anybody attempting to display the qualities that would make for good leadership.

…is totally otm. Everyone on their side of the aisle liked this fine 6 years ago when that nutso energy allowed them to take the legislative branch and all the statehouses, when it provided a counter-Obama boost. But the people "in charge" have either no way of harnessing it or no interest in doing so, and now anyone who seems "legitimate" has multiple strikes against them going into a GOP primary.

i feel like the dumbest thing that the GOP donor class did was backing Jeb early, not realizing that the Bush name means vastly different things to the American public than it does to Republican elites.

i very much enjoyed it when they started referring to arch-tea-party candidate marco rubio as a "mainstream candidate". by 2020 matt bevin will be too "mainstream" for the republican party base.

the donor pool and Citizens United undoubtedly played a role also

this is getting overlooked a lot, I think, maybe partly because it was such an unexpected effect of the CU ruling. Everybody assumed (wrongly, apparently) that CU would benefit the GOP, but all it really did was allow loser candidates to remain bankrolled for way longer than was justified, totally fucking up the primary in the process.