Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

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for the vast majority of voters, her non-indictment means the email story will make no lasting impression and frankly that is probably how it should be.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:26 (seven years ago) link

What difference does it make to the voter what the FBI director say about her furtiveness and lying? Dems are gonna vote for her anyway.

Unless they don't? It feeds into the idea that "they" are all crooked. The "If it was anyone else then we'd prosecute" line in particular looks bad.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:28 (seven years ago) link

"the fact that he tweeted out an anti-semitic image, probably in ignorance, bothers me less than the fact that he has 1,000s of followers who are explicitly anti-semitic and racist and he'll happily re-tweet what they post."

by which i mean, it's part of a pattern, and that's the point. if joe biden accidentally tweeted out something with a coded anti-semitic jibe, it'd be out of character and i'd assume he or one of his employees made a really dumb mistake. but with trump it's just one in a very long list of coded racist messages; it's just that this one happens to be directed at a new group.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:28 (seven years ago) link

xpost

i thought comey explicitly said no prosecutor would prosecute for such actions!

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:29 (seven years ago) link

It feeds into the idea that "they" are all crooked.

but they are!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:31 (seven years ago) link

"To be clear, this is not to suggest that in similar circumstances, a person who engaged in this activity would face no consequences. To the contrary, those individuals are often subject to security or administrative sanctions. But that is not what we are deciding now."

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:34 (seven years ago) link

hah! "security or administrative sanctions" would seem to mean losing some level of security clearance. but since she was a cabinet secretary that would never have flown, and atm she's not even working in the government. if she's elected president it's not as if this puts some red mark on her past employment file that would prevent her from being hired for that job.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:44 (seven years ago) link

If she was still Secretary she would likely be facing some sort of sanctions, yes. I would guess those sanctions would be rather light and may just require her to attend some sort of training to prevent something like this from happening again. But she's not Secretary anymore so idk what they're supposed to do

frogbs, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:45 (seven years ago) link

Yeah, I think Andrew Farrell is mischaracterizing that line. It doesn't quite reduce to "anyone else and we'd prosecute." It's more like "prosecution isn't the right consequence here - but that doesn't mean Anything Goes."

He's indicating that there are consequences other than criminal prosecution. He's saying there may be an appropriate other kind of consequence for this kind of behavior in the future. But that this is not his call in this case.

Like Aimless, I would interpret "security or administrative sanctions" as meaning punishment that is short of criminal charges: being reprimanded, having your clearance yanked, being fired. Those would generally be internal to the department, and follow that department's chain of command.

Because Clinton was the head of that department at the time, and she doesn't work there anymore, there is no real way for her to fire herself or retroactively punish herself. Nor is there a way for Kerry to punish her, outside the framework of law, which we have already found out is a dead end.

takin' care of beersness (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:46 (seven years ago) link

tbh I was hoping for a result pretty much along these lines: no one being frogmarched off to the hoosegow, but some statement saying "this isn't the way to do things, and not just because It Looks Bad."

Something like "in future, departments should issue clearer guidance and establish standard operating procedures" would also be apropos.

Generally I agree with Lord Alfred and Aimless: most people will process this as "she was cleared of wrongdoing" and move on. Ditto for Benghazi. People who are already frothing with hate for her will continue to froth, as they would in any case.

I saw somewhere else that Comey's ruling was pretty similar to Roberts's in the matter of Obamacare: "I don't much like it, but I also don't want to be the one person who completely upends the political universe with the stroke of a pen."

takin' care of beersness (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:53 (seven years ago) link

I'm not personally characterising it - my reading of it is much the same as yourselves - but I'm pointing out that this line is being read as "anyone else, we'd prosecute" - on Reddit etc to start with, but it'll spread.

In conclusion Bill Clinton is an idiot.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 20:59 (seven years ago) link

Curious how damaging this report would have been if Bush or Rubio had been the nominee. You may think they were bound to be as hapless in a general as they were during the nomination, or that Clinton's demographics are rock-solid no matter who the opponent. I don't know--I think the report is damning enough that Trump might be the last best thing she's got going for her.

clemenza, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:00 (seven years ago) link

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) admonished Donald Trump on Tuesday for tweeting an anti-Hillary Clinton message with a Star of David over the weekend. An exasperated Ryan called the tweet "anti-Semitic" and "ridiculous."

“Look, anti-Semitic images have no place in a presidential campaign,” Ryan said in a phone-in with conservative radio host Charlie Sykes.

Ryan also said while he doesn’t know which Trump campaign “flunky” was responsible for the message featuring a six-point star, he couldn’t drop everything to denounce the “ridiculous” tweet over the Fourth of July weekend.

“If I had to stop everything to comment on every ridiculous tweet sent out by this campaign, I wouldn’t have time to do anything,” he said. “I really believe he’s gotta clean up the way his new media works.”


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/paul-ryan-donald-trump-star-of-david-tweet

Sean, let me be clear (silby), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:02 (seven years ago) link

lol

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:04 (seven years ago) link

it'll spread

sure, it'll spread beyond reddit, but it won't spread to places that will damage hil's campaign. it will just negatively reinforce voters she'd never win anyway. Bill is def more idiotic now than he used to be, back when he needed to be sharp. his feedback loop for punishing stupid remarks is nowhere nearly as effective as it was when he was sitting in the bulls eye.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:07 (seven years ago) link

Andrew, are you really citing Reddit

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:11 (seven years ago) link

As goes Reddit..

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:18 (seven years ago) link

All I'm saying is, I am speaking to you from a country that just went bust overestimating the average voter, I am perhaps a little twitchy about this at the moment.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:18 (seven years ago) link

Man I hate Paul Ryan, but that interview is hilarious.

Trump's retweeting is really starting to feel like Homer Simpson's webpage, with Dancing Jesus and a bunch of stuff he ripped off other sites.

Scott Walker is such an empty-headed little twerp.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:27 (seven years ago) link

it is so weird this election to see like the formal & rigid apparatus of the nyt, commentariat &c, reduced to like, Commentators note that the Tweet, a primitive representation of a phallus rendered in the visual computer language ASCII, was shared 17,000 times before being deleted on the early hours Sunday mor-, like verbatim quotations of trump's caveman speech & articulate analysis of like lo-culture fascist macro circulation

schlump, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:29 (seven years ago) link

Rumors bubbling regarding an impending Gingrich VP announcement

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:54 (seven years ago) link

fuckin awesome

goole, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:54 (seven years ago) link

noooooooooooot

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:57 (seven years ago) link

whoever said "Gingrich is a stupid person's idea of a smart person; just as Trump is a poor person's idea of a rich person" is otm

they would be so perfect, I really hope this is true

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:59 (seven years ago) link

it really does make sense, you gotta ask yourself, who can look in the mirror and say to himself, 'i have to be honest, this is it, the only chance i have left.'

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 21:59 (seven years ago) link

how much more 90s effluvia are we going to deal with here

goole, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:01 (seven years ago) link

fingers crossed for hologram Lee Atwater rockin at the convention

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:10 (seven years ago) link

it is a v beautiful ticket in really adhering to a kind of on-paper dream-logic designed around uniting two heavy hitters, an experienced hand & a business insider, simultaneously existing more fleshily as just a horrible nightmare, the pressed-flesh of two repulsive, disgraced men, red-faced & huffing, sweating in private & handshaking to bruise, deaf confidence & blind judgment, committing sacrifices in hunting lodges, presumably a classically uneasy below-surface tension between them, NEWT 2020, covenant seals popping open with a flip-top-cap sound, newt a hillary figure in evoking the comfort of the nineties providing one doesn't read too closely, a place for speaker hastert in a trump administration, a shrieking executive branch reexamination of the scene in the dark knight where somebody neglects to blow up the boatful of prisoners. hearing some beltway buzz abt hillary's veep = ayers ? interesting development either way

schlump, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:11 (seven years ago) link

Maybe that Mars colony will really come to fruition now

takin' care of beersness (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:19 (seven years ago) link

mars, bitches

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:43 (seven years ago) link

our moonbase is going to be the most luxurious moonbase, a really terrific moonbase

brexit through the rift shock (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:47 (seven years ago) link

isn't gingrich even somehow less popular than trump?

Mordy, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:47 (seven years ago) link

yup. Sad!

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:49 (seven years ago) link

"A CNN/Opinion Research poll on Monday [2012] showed 63 percent of All Americans viewed Gingrich unfavorably, compared to just 25 percent who saw him in a positive light."

according to this huffpo link trump currently 59.2% unfavorable and 35.6% popular so big lolz good choice, donald.

Mordy, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:50 (seven years ago) link

a combined total of four ex-wives, solid family values ticket

brexit through the rift shock (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:50 (seven years ago) link

are WP types cool with papists now, I can't remember

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:55 (seven years ago) link

wait is this confirmed somewhere? gingrich? you're fucking kidding

akm, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:57 (seven years ago) link

no it's all speculation

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:59 (seven years ago) link

but Gingrich and Christie have been rumored to be at the top of the list for a couple months now

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 22:59 (seven years ago) link

what's jesse ventura up to nowadays

brexit through the rift shock (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:07 (seven years ago) link

Ventura remains politically active and currently hosts a show on Ora TV and on RT called Off the Grid.

Sad!

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:08 (seven years ago) link

The Straight Talk Express pulling in on a monorail near you.

brownie, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:10 (seven years ago) link

rt as in russia today??

brexit through the rift shock (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:11 (seven years ago) link

Was thinking how a Trump/Geffen ticket would be perfect.

Any Given User (Eazy), Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:23 (seven years ago) link

Trump / Ghost of Eddie Guerrero '16

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 5 July 2016 23:59 (seven years ago) link

I don't know if there's anyone Trump can pick, positive or negative, who will make the election not 100% about Trump. McCain managed to do it in 2008--make an election that was 100% about Obama and Bush about someone else--for a few weeks.

clemenza, Wednesday, 6 July 2016 00:07 (seven years ago) link

can we persuade peter thiel to bankroll a trump/hogan ticket?

brexit through the rift shock (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 6 July 2016 00:09 (seven years ago) link

Trump's going to have his pick of the best, simply the best, sad losers on the planet.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 6 July 2016 01:11 (seven years ago) link

that fool from The Fix wrote a little while ago that Comey's remarks are "very bad" for the Clinton campaign, but maybe I still don't get Beltway jabber.

i feel like the more i know about the actual workings of the federal government, the less seriously i take jabber from dc political reporters. beat reporters are different, those who have been covering topics for years & know what they are talking about. but the ones who just cover politics.. nah. i doubt the talking heads going on about this on cable know anything at all about systems of classification & how they vary among agencies, or how state's IT worked, etc.

i thought this article was illuminating: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-prosecution-past-cases-221744

i am picturing a circular loop of problems at state re: IT security --> at high levels they just expect things to work so they can get their actual jobs done which are v demanding. clinton doesn't know what an email server is! she just wants to be able to send/receive emails in a way that works for her.. so.. the IT people didn't follow best practices setting it up. but they have been doing similar things for agency managers for many years because they are probably chronically underfunded and powerless to implement better practices due to.. lack of support and funds because there has never been a major problem before, and they have so much to deal with.

td; dr: email server thing was bad practice but everyone involved at state was probably overworked and under-funded. problems like this in government stay bad practice unless/until there's some huge outcry or incident, then everyone freaks out and finally leadership forces something to be done about it.

arts and crafts THIS GUY (daria-g), Wednesday, 6 July 2016 01:39 (seven years ago) link


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