Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

speaking of Brown, he made the same calculation right? He probably would have won if he'd called an election right away.

He would have, probably, but nobody wants to be the clown who waits for years to become PM and gets voted out a matter of months later.

I bet he's trying to.

ceiling_david_miliband_is_watching_you_masturbate.jpg

As someone who'd like to see the Tories in as much trouble as possible, for the next 4 or 42 months, I think that keeping a voice of Brexit off the final ballot is a great achievement.

May really hammering home the "Brexit means Brexit" message today, which was probably something she offered to Leadsom?

I hope it turns out as one of those promises that is one a selection of possibilities.

if they call an election immediately then all Labour has to do is stand on a platform of no Brexit, and the massive silent majority that would have voted to stay at the referendum had they only known will swing solidly behind Labour. easy.

xp Also have a Leaver on will complicate May's presumed plan of a flurry of winks and eyebrow-waggling to indicate that really now, she may have voted one way, but she's really quite sympathetic to the other side.

I think the 1922 committee has confirmed May as leader now? Does that technically mean we might have a new PM by the end of the day?

Seems not. She has to see the Queen first etc. Wed 20th is the date being floated.

Gove is kind of hated by his own party and prone to gaffes that people overlook because a) the media is full of his mates and b) the divide-and-rule shit he's doing with the education system is popular with enough voters. In the event of the Tories committing regicide they'd surely go with May or Hague over Gove (or Boris if he's around in time).

Pretty sure D-Mili can do more good running the International Rescue Committee than running the Labour Party in any case.

― Matt DC, Wednesday, March 27, 2013 10:07 AM (3 years ago)

closing episode of the season is surely her majesty snuffing it just before she signs the papers xp

She was a Leaver too wasn't she? Time for her to quit.

I don't know that anyone's suggesting he'd win, mind, just that if you have a fractious segment of your party (that you will have to disappoint and piss off over the next while), giving a champion of theirs (particularly of the branch furthest away from you) a decent chance of being defeated in public would seem a good plan - particularly they're likely to be drubbed.

Don't think it'll be Gove. In fact, I think there's a decent chance that it may not even get to a membership vote, with May being the sole candidate after the others drop out in return for preferment, a bit like with Michael Howard.

― So you are a hippocrite, face it! (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, June 30, 2016 11:00 AM (1 week ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

think it might be time to call it all off for good

― twunty fifteen (imago), Thursday, 5 November 2015 21:07 (8 months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Hahahahaha every political journalist has just left Eagle's campaign launch midway through. The comic timing of the Leadsom announcement was perfect.

:D

AF otm

Eagle should stand for the tory leadership and then everyone's happy?

BBC News channel comentator 'accidentally' said that was the Conservative Party when they cut away from Eagle waffle. Is that even Freudian?

https://twitter.com/Sonic_Screwup/status/752462804121182208

both labour & LDs calling for GE

and the Greens

if this were Borgen, Corbyn would strike a breaktaking pact with UKIP to destroy the Tories on a platform of PR

If nothing else I would expect UKIP's sources of funding to dry up almost entirely once Article 50 is invoked.

I kind of think the leadsom thing is really trivial as far as leadership goes. It was a terrible thing to say, but what about it caught people's attention? Would it have been forgotten about if she hadn't denied it? She could have (and probably has) said that single mothers are causing the downfall of western society and no one would have blinked.

terrible thing to say significantly amplified by fact large proportion of press corps in bark stripping mode

Yep. If you want sympathetic press, don't accuse a journalist of lying.

It was more the "I didn't say it" became "I was misquoted" then "The emphasis I gave it was changed" to "They made me say it" and a side-swerve of "Sorry if I upset anyone" towards "I apologise to Theresa May" but never quite.

Made Gordon's handling of the "Bigoted Woman" issue look like a master of calm and rational action.

Murdoch press would've happily flagged lack of kids as a PM candidate weakness/deficiency. But they'll give May an easy ride as long as she deports enough foreigns.

Hahahahaha every political journalist has just left Eagle's campaign launch midway through. The comic timing of the Leadsom announcement was perfect.

The Thick of It Xmas Special basically.

So we're basically 12 Tory votes away from a snap election/

A snap election right now would also require Labour MPs to go out an campaign on behalf of a prospective Prime Minister they're on record as having no confidence in. May might take the opportunity to kill Labour as an electoral force as soon as she can.

If she was feeling in a sadistic frame of mind, possibly. I don't think anyone is any shape to fight a General Election though.

So, let me get this:

The 12 votes that stet says are the Tories that would have to vote 'no conf' in the govt/Cameron, to allow a mid-term general election to be called?

But what if Labour all voted against? Like, they have confidence in the govt? Purely to prevent a General Election "right now" as they are all washing their hair?

Karma is a bitch, Angela Eagle. xp

And alternately, if May called an election on the basis that she's a bit maybe possibly leaning towards Brexit if, you know, um.

Whereas Labour could come boldly forward and say "Vote for us and we will not invoke Article 50"...

And the Greens come out all in favour of Nuclear power?

And Boris Johnson votes to leave himself by accident.

https://twitter.com/econbuttonwood/status/752500958811291648 lol

> Whereas Labour could come boldly forward and say "Vote for us and we will not invoke Article 50"...

is there anything stopping the tories from saying the same thing?

If she was feeling in a sadistic frame of mind, possibly.

Is she ever not?

omg the Eagle video where she's scanning the room and calling out "Robert Peston?..Michael Crick?..." and can't find a single journalist to ask her a question is brutal.

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/752480992041000960

Satire Is Dead.

Mike Smithson
‏@MSmithsonPB
New ICM poll doesn't bode well for Corbyn's LAB
CON 38% +1
LAB 30%=
UKIP: 15%=
LD: 8%=
GRN: 4%=

And alternately, if May called an election on the basis that she's a bit maybe possibly leaning towards Brexit if, you know, um..

May can't call an election because of the fixed-term parliaments act. The only routes here are:

1. Repeal the act -- will take a good while, and would need to pass the house.

2. Vote of no confidence in the govt: they won't want this, as the opportunity then passes to Labour to form a government, and I bet Corbyn would try

3. 2/3s majority of house agrees on election. Given Labour is calling for one, it would then be interesting to see if all the PLP would vote for it.

> Whereas Labour could come boldly forward and say "Vote for us and we will not invoke Article 50"...

is there anything stopping the tories from saying the same thing?

― koogs, Monday, July 11, 2016 2:17 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well, nothing except that there's a whole bunch of Tories and RWers that will go "whaidaminit, we won that referendum? WHERE'S OUR PRIZE!!!?"

Whatever Jeremy Corbyn's faults, he can count.

xpost yes, point three, quite.

So, everyone votes for the thing they don't want, so that they get the thing they do want by winning for the other team. Or some such.

the idea that Corbyn could win a general election at this moment is pure moonshine surely

2. Vote of no confidence in the govt: they won't want this, as the opportunity then passes to Labour to form a government, and I bet Corbyn would try

I don't know much about constitutional issues, but if there is a no confidence vote isn't the way that it works that who ever is best placed to "command a majority of the house" (or whatever) gets a go at forming a govt? as Corbyn only has a dozen or so MPs actually supporting him, could another Labour MP from the right of the party technically have a go at forming a govt on the basis that they are more likely to command a majority than Corbyn? (I know this is silly politics fanfic that won't happen, but I was wondering what exactly the rules are)

lol Eagle has had a mare today. REAL LEADERSHIP, yeah sure - you keep telling yourself that if it helps.