Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

The best approach to a Trump satire would be to lay out the grueling details of his hardscrabble life's journey as seen through his perpetually victimized eyes.

The best approach to a Trump satire would be to burn it all down.

This one time, the country club pool was being cleaned and he had to wait. Sad!

Another time, a beauty pageant venue required payment in advance. Sad!

Then there was a slight delay in his scheduled delivery of Slovakian-model potential brides. Sad!

The best Trump satire is all the previous and current seasons of Decker

"Our Values Are Under Attack" would be such a great campaign song

"You wave a flag on Christmas day...they'll throw you in jail, whoa!"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/12/donald-trump-has-no-interest-in-apologizing-to-john-mccain/

Following a policy speech in Virginia Beach on Monday afternoon, a reporter from WAVY-TV, the NBC affiliate for the Hampton Roads area, interviewed Trump and noted that many veterans continue to be offended by Trump's year-old comment. He asked Trump if he would like to apologize for what he said.

"No, I've said it," Trump said."And, you know, I was disappointed with John, because I think much more work should have been done for our veterans. We have not done the good job for our veterans, and I will take care of our veterans, and the veterans know that. And I will say that in terms of polls, I am doing better — by far better — than anybody with respect to the veterans. No, I was very disappointed with the work done for our veterans. And we're going to make it good for them again. We have to make it good for them again. They are great people, and we have done a very poor job."

McCain's office pushed back against Trump's accusation that the senator has not done enough for veterans, pointing out that one of McCain's top priorities is fixing the broken veterans' health-care system and that he has pushed a series of key reforms.

is there documented proof of Trump apologizing for any single thing he's done or said in the past year? maybe it's time to stop framing the question as "Are you going to apologize?" or "Do you regret..." and just start saying "You're not sorry for (insert here), are you?" or "You don't plan to ever apologize for (crazy thing), do you?"

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/us/politics/republican-convention-issues.html?_r=0

The platform demands that lawmakers use religion as a guide when legislating, stipulating “that man-made law must be consistent with God-given, natural rights.”

It also encourages the teaching of the Bible in public schools because, the amendment said, a good understanding of its contents is “indispensable for the development of an educated citizenry.”

The pornography provision was not in an initial draft that the Republican National Committee drew up and released on Sunday. But delegates added it on Monday at the same time they were inserting many of the amendments opposing gay and transgender rights. It calls pornography “a public menace” that is especially harmful to children.

The War on porn??? wtf year is it ?

Oh, man, I hope this leads to a new edition of the Meese Commission report being published. Funniest book I ever read.

this will go over well with their key demographic of straight male misogynists

What or who, exactly, gives a fuck about the Republican Platform?

probably as many who give a fuck about the Dems'.

log cabin republicans, apparently.

I don't ever remember a town hall meeting with The Speaker of The house. what the hell was that all about anyways? just CNN wishing he'd talk about Trump as if they don't enough already

looking up log cabin republicans brought me to the wikipedia page on this group:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOProud

peter thiel was involved. obviously.

i was just totally confused by it so much so that i watched it for 10 minutes .

"Delegates drafting the Republican National Convention platform approved removing language encouraging a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians."

RNC now more right-wing than Bibi.

trump up in a few places in latest quinnipiac poll

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/753236366826156032

Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model.

the best 27%

convention bump coming

qunnipiac has been more r leaning the last two polls so Im gonna tie my hopes to that

4 months, HillBots...how you feelin'?

robots don't have feelings

just policy positions

http://www.cooltanarts.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/robot.jpg

"How. Do. You. Feel. HillBots? My. Counterculture. Programming. Makes. My. Manufacturing. Model. Slightly. Less. Common. Than. Yours."

https://c1.staticflickr.com/3/2548/4235533843_0bed94877f_z.jpg?zz=1

loool

srsly tho the quinn demo + party ID numbers look weird? also:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:

IA: Clinton 42, Trump 39
OH: Clinton 39, Trump 39
PA: Clinton 45, Trump 36

July 5-10, MOE +/- 3.4%

Monmouth CO poll with 13-pt Clinton lead:

Clinton - 48
Trump - 35
Johnson - 5

11% Hispanic sample

not to be all unskew but generally the safe bet is not to freak out too much about one particular bad polling result

trump up in a few places in latest quinnipiac poll

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/753236366826156032

Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model.

Quinn has consistently under polled minorities though.

sample size is also only a thousand which seems super low to me, but it seems to be pretty standard

and every one of those people started a band

1000 people implies a 3% error which is usually good enough except in very close races

the quinnipac bias is accounted for by the 538 model and even with that there was a (very small!) move up to 27%, so at least nate silver thinks these results are significant (in the statistical sense)

I am trying to take a week or two off from poll-watching because news events (icymi there have been a few of those recently) take a while to show their effect, or lack of effect.

At the same time, I will note that the current distance between Trump and Clinton reflects his "unification bounce" and not hers.

Just want to register here that despite that poll I find it really hard to believe Trump is going to be competitive in Ohio. Republicans there really like Kasich and Kasich is the most solidly anti-Trump of the primary candidates. Democrats there went for Clinton over Sanders 56-42. Just don't see his votes there.

Per Greg Sargent:

the Q-polls are out of sync with the polling averages, which have Clinton up by three in Florida, five in Pennsylvania, and three in Ohio. Stick to the averages, folks.

link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/07/13/only-one-of-the-candidates-is-actively-trying-to-divide-the-country/?tid=pm_opinions_pop_b

I don't know anyone back home (conservative-leaning rural IN) who doesn't think Trump is a joke and completely insane. Anecdotal, I know, but still.

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

-- WSJ/NBC/Marist poll

But paying more attention to what's happening in Europe since Brexit and I'm starting to feel like the whole world is going crazy so who even knows anymore.

xpost Wow. Sweet.

whoa, I bet even George Zimmerman could get 1%

I don't know anyone back home (conservative-leaning rural IN) who doesn't think Trump is a joke and completely insane. Anecdotal, I know, but still.

― Night Jorts (Old Lunch)

wish i could say the same about conservative-leaning urban IN. i've had to pretty much give up talking to people.

I drove through a big stretch of eastern Washington the other day and saw dozens and dozens of local insaniac Cathy McMorris Rogers' signs plus numerous other ones for state and local GOP candidates but not a single Trump one.

I don't know if they're against him or just embarrassed to admit they are but I sincerely doubt any of these people would dream of voting for Hilary.

I see lots of Trump signs here in Northern NJ.

I see Trump bumper stickers in Somerville, MA; let's not underestimate his reach/appeal.

there was a whole narrative (lol narratives) during the primaries that said that he lacked appeal in "nice" midwest states like wisconsin. not sure if that applies to indiana too but it's an interesting flaw if his primary appeal is to loud mouthed urbanites who generally speaking are located in states (NJ) he cannot win

Yes it's definitely the loud mouthed urbanites that call everybody "boss" or "sweethawt" here that I think make up the bulk of his support.

had to go on a field ride in Northern NJ recently. We were driving through a nice neighborhood and there was an older man jogging down a side street while holding a giant trump flag . I wasn't fast enough with my camera to get a pic though.

Weird thing: I haven't seen a single Trump sign or bumper sticker in Orange County.

this is a brilliant tactic, if you got $5 million to burn:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/13/clinton-ally-promises-5-million-donation-to-veterans-if-donald-trump-releases-his-tax-returns/

Haven't seen many trump stickers in Austin, TX

Worth the read.

Clinton began her 2016 campaign with a listening tour, as well, and it is worth considering the possibility that these tours are not simply bullshit. This is, to be honest, a possibility I had not really considered until speaking with past and present Clinton aides who have been forced to take their boss’s process seriously.

Laurie Rubiner, who served as Clinton’s legislative director from 2005 to 2008, recalls being asked to block out two hours on the calendar for “card-table time.” Rubiner had just started in Clinton’s office six weeks before, and she had no idea what card-table time was, but when the boss wants something put on the calendar, you do it.

When the appointed day arrived, Clinton had laid out two card tables alongside two huge suitcases. She opened the suitcases, and they were stuffed with newspaper clippings, position papers, random scraps of paper. Seeing the befuddled look on Rubiner’s face, Clinton asked, “Did anyone tell you what we’re doing here?”

It turned out that Clinton, in her travels, stuffed notes from her conversations and her reading into suitcases, and every few months she dumped the stray paper on the floor of her Senate office and picked through it with her staff. The card tables were for categorization: scraps of paper related to the environment went here, crumpled clippings related to military families there. These notes, Rubiner recalls, really did lead to legislation. Clinton took seriously the things she was told, the things she read, the things she saw. She made her team follow up