Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

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loool

srsly tho the quinn demo + party ID numbers look weird? also:

New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:

IA: Clinton 42, Trump 39
OH: Clinton 39, Trump 39
PA: Clinton 45, Trump 36

July 5-10, MOE +/- 3.4%

Monmouth CO poll with 13-pt Clinton lead:

Clinton - 48
Trump - 35
Johnson - 5

11% Hispanic sample

not to be all unskew but generally the safe bet is not to freak out too much about one particular bad polling result

trump up in a few places in latest quinnipiac poll

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/753236366826156032

Pretty sharp uptick for Trump in our forecast, after this morning's polling. Chances up to 27% in polls-only model.

Quinn has consistently under polled minorities though.

sample size is also only a thousand which seems super low to me, but it seems to be pretty standard

and every one of those people started a band

1000 people implies a 3% error which is usually good enough except in very close races

the quinnipac bias is accounted for by the 538 model and even with that there was a (very small!) move up to 27%, so at least nate silver thinks these results are significant (in the statistical sense)

I am trying to take a week or two off from poll-watching because news events (icymi there have been a few of those recently) take a while to show their effect, or lack of effect.

At the same time, I will note that the current distance between Trump and Clinton reflects his "unification bounce" and not hers.

Just want to register here that despite that poll I find it really hard to believe Trump is going to be competitive in Ohio. Republicans there really like Kasich and Kasich is the most solidly anti-Trump of the primary candidates. Democrats there went for Clinton over Sanders 56-42. Just don't see his votes there.

Per Greg Sargent:

the Q-polls are out of sync with the polling averages, which have Clinton up by three in Florida, five in Pennsylvania, and three in Ohio. Stick to the averages, folks.

link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/07/13/only-one-of-the-candidates-is-actively-trying-to-divide-the-country/?tid=pm_opinions_pop_b

I don't know anyone back home (conservative-leaning rural IN) who doesn't think Trump is a joke and completely insane. Anecdotal, I know, but still.

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

-- WSJ/NBC/Marist poll

But paying more attention to what's happening in Europe since Brexit and I'm starting to feel like the whole world is going crazy so who even knows anymore.

xpost Wow. Sweet.

whoa, I bet even George Zimmerman could get 1%

I don't know anyone back home (conservative-leaning rural IN) who doesn't think Trump is a joke and completely insane. Anecdotal, I know, but still.

― Night Jorts (Old Lunch)

wish i could say the same about conservative-leaning urban IN. i've had to pretty much give up talking to people.

I drove through a big stretch of eastern Washington the other day and saw dozens and dozens of local insaniac Cathy McMorris Rogers' signs plus numerous other ones for state and local GOP candidates but not a single Trump one.

I don't know if they're against him or just embarrassed to admit they are but I sincerely doubt any of these people would dream of voting for Hilary.

I see lots of Trump signs here in Northern NJ.

I see Trump bumper stickers in Somerville, MA; let's not underestimate his reach/appeal.

there was a whole narrative (lol narratives) during the primaries that said that he lacked appeal in "nice" midwest states like wisconsin. not sure if that applies to indiana too but it's an interesting flaw if his primary appeal is to loud mouthed urbanites who generally speaking are located in states (NJ) he cannot win

Yes it's definitely the loud mouthed urbanites that call everybody "boss" or "sweethawt" here that I think make up the bulk of his support.

had to go on a field ride in Northern NJ recently. We were driving through a nice neighborhood and there was an older man jogging down a side street while holding a giant trump flag . I wasn't fast enough with my camera to get a pic though.

Weird thing: I haven't seen a single Trump sign or bumper sticker in Orange County.

this is a brilliant tactic, if you got $5 million to burn:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/13/clinton-ally-promises-5-million-donation-to-veterans-if-donald-trump-releases-his-tax-returns/

Haven't seen many trump stickers in Austin, TX

Worth the read.

Clinton began her 2016 campaign with a listening tour, as well, and it is worth considering the possibility that these tours are not simply bullshit. This is, to be honest, a possibility I had not really considered until speaking with past and present Clinton aides who have been forced to take their boss’s process seriously.

Laurie Rubiner, who served as Clinton’s legislative director from 2005 to 2008, recalls being asked to block out two hours on the calendar for “card-table time.” Rubiner had just started in Clinton’s office six weeks before, and she had no idea what card-table time was, but when the boss wants something put on the calendar, you do it.

When the appointed day arrived, Clinton had laid out two card tables alongside two huge suitcases. She opened the suitcases, and they were stuffed with newspaper clippings, position papers, random scraps of paper. Seeing the befuddled look on Rubiner’s face, Clinton asked, “Did anyone tell you what we’re doing here?”

It turned out that Clinton, in her travels, stuffed notes from her conversations and her reading into suitcases, and every few months she dumped the stray paper on the floor of her Senate office and picked through it with her staff. The card tables were for categorization: scraps of paper related to the environment went here, crumpled clippings related to military families there. These notes, Rubiner recalls, really did lead to legislation. Clinton took seriously the things she was told, the things she read, the things she saw. She made her team follow up

this seems unwise https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/07/13/trump-seeks-damages-from-former-campaign-consultant-alleges-nondisclosure-violation/?postshare=7511468441826934&tid=ss_tw

lol he really can't let *anything* go can he, just the smallest, pettiest motherfucker

you'd think at least they wouldnt be asking for damages.. it not only makes him look vindictive and petty but also like he's trying to make a buck

has to pay for his campaign somehow

reminds me, has any effort been made to confront trump-supporting republicans with earlier, stem-winding grouses about frivolous lawsuits and the urgent need for "tort reform"?

That Vox article is vomit.

I suppose it is if you are hell-bent on the narrative that there are absolutely no redeeming qualities in Hillary Clinton or her style of governance.

"If you think that Vox article is vomit . . . you just might be a Berniebro." (pause for laughter)

and here's why

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is seeking funds through arbitration from Sam Nunberg, who was fired from the campaign last summer amid clashes with then-campaign manager Corey Lewandowski and for posting what the campaign said was racially offensive material on Facebook.

"we've told you a million times, you have to use Twitter for that."

uh except back in sept 2015

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/article/2015/sep/02/11-examples-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-hol/

fetterman endorsed hill today: https://twitter.com/HillaryforPA/status/753244547220549632

another poll btw

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnRvQvoWAAAC3w0.jpg

Meanwhile:

The Huffington Post attempted to call the contact phone numbers for the Trump campaign in all 50 states. A few of the state operations had no websites or no numbers listed. Many of the other numbers didn’t work. When we left voicemails, we didn’t get callbacks.

On only six occasions did someone actually answer the phone. And in several of those instances, the person who picked up explained that a physical office would be opened up only after the convention.

on sign anecdotage - just got back from a family car trip Minnesota - Omaha - Denver - SLC - Oakland - Portland - Seattle - Missoula - ND - and the only places I can recall seeing Trump signs were northern Oregon and eastern Washington. happily surprised by the lack of apparent enthusiasm.

a nice summation of how we/the gop got here: http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n15/eliot-weinberger/they-could-have-picked

I mean that premise is simultaneously amazing

I suppose it is if you are hell-bent on the narrative that there are absolutely no redeeming qualities in Hillary Clinton or her style of governance.
--http://porno (DJP)

I think article would be repellant whomever it was written about (or by). Lame personality politics schtick.

if you are hell-bent on the narrative that there are absolutely no redeeming qualities in Hillary Clinton or her style of governance.

Pretty close... to Eddie S. Glaude, Jr., chair of the Department of African American Studies at Princeton University.

Democratic values centered on economic and racial justice shape my own politics. I’m not convinced those values shape hers. Nothing Clinton says or intends to do if elected will fundamentally transform the circumstances of the most vulnerable in this country—even with her concessions to the Sanders campaign. Like the majority of Democratic politicians these days, she is a corporate Democrat intent on maintaining the status quo. And I have had enough of all of them.

time.com/4402823/glaude-hillary-clinton/

https://time.com/4402823/glaude-hillary-clinton/

I'm totally fine with disliking both candidates and therefore not voting but this is definitely the clearest case of "lesser of two evils" as there will ever be in my lifetime (for the record, I think Hillary will be just fine)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/14/us/politics/republican-convention-speakers-donald-trump.html?smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur

The list, which is subject to change, as obtained by The New York Times:

Night 1: A Benghazi focus, followed by border patrol agents and Mr. Shaw, whose son was killed by an undocumented immigrant. Senator Cotton, Mr. Giuliani, Melania Trump, Ms. Ernst and others.

Night 2: A focus on the economy: Mr. White, president of the U.F.C.; Asa Hutchinson, the governor of Arkansas; Michael Mukasey, the former United States attorney general; Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, a vice-presidential possibility; Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader; Tiffany Trump; Donald Trump Jr. and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

Night 3: Ms. Bondi; Ms. Collins; Newt Gingrich, a former House speaker; Senator Ted Cruz of Texas; Eric Trump; Ms. Gulbis; and the nominee for vice president.

Night 4: Mr. Tebow; Representative Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee; Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma; Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman; Gov. Rick Scott of Florida; Mr. Thiel; Mr. Barrack; Ivanka Trump; Donald J. Trump.

Sad!

Not enough Hot New Country.

Also, absent names suggest Tom Brady as VP nom.