Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

she definitely took a hit in the polls but with these news cycles it will be forgotten about soon enough .

I'm guessing that without the email scandal people would sub in something else, right? Like it serves as an outlet for natural distrust.

the fact that Trump has anything more than an outsider shot is still legitimately terrifying, though

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-poll.html?_r=0

Mrs. Clinton’s six-percentage-point lead over the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, in a CBS News poll last month has evaporated. The two candidates are now tied in a general election matchup, the new poll indicates, with each receiving the support of 40 percent of voters.

media is pretty disingenuous too - cherrypicking polls to make the race look closer and more dramatic than it is to sell clicks. but i guess we knew all this going in. still disappointing to see NYT do huffpost level analysis w/ the veneer of sophisticated gray lady.

A how-to manual:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

looks like Trump's support isn't going up, rather Clinton's supporters are jumping to 3rd parties

so should clinton be focusing her efforts on gary johnson?

http://worldif.economist.com/article/12166/world-v-donald

RBG just apologized for her comments, god damnit

Guessing this means Donald flipping out and acting like a child is gonna be vindicated

I've seen a lot of friends-of-friends flipping from Bernie to Johnson in the past few days. It's weird and dumb.

i find the bernie-johnson flip useful because it indicates what percentage of bernie supporters don't actually believe in any of bernie's policies, but were only supporting him because of personal animosity against clinton. looks like roughly a third or so.

johnson is getting more support than stein right now because johnson, unlike stein, is a professonal politician. of course that means that he could be undermined fairly easily just by pointing out his history as a republican. anybody whose support is based on who they're not tends to suffer when it becomes apparent who they are.

Also, in fairness, penis.

new board decription

It's not that different from our current board description!

i find the bernie-johnson flip useful because it indicates what percentage of bernie supporters don't actually believe in any of bernie's policies, but were only supporting him because of personal animosity against clinton

i've found that a number of bernie supporters are not necessarily animated entirely by clinton animus (though that's likely present) but by not necessarily progressive ideologies, such as 'anger at the establishment' (in which case even a switch to trump is possibly justifiable), social libertarianism (pot smokers), anti-war/anti-imperialism (the last two both make sense switching to johnson), anti-status quo/accelerationism, and even special snowflakeism (in which case opposition to mainstreamism is the animating factor). i think it's dumb to go from bernie to johnson or trump bc it indicates a lack of substantive ideology/policy but there are somewhat understandable reasons.

"i find the bernie-johnson flip useful because it indicates what percentage of bernie supporters don't actually believe in any of bernie's policies, but were only supporting him because of personal animosity against clinton. looks like roughly a third or so."

I think personal animosity is maybe a reach (although I'm sure there is some). At least a portion of that support is equivalent to Perot's for example which had more to do with perception that he was "more independent" or "not status quo" than it did with any specific policy positions. Same for the Trump frankly.

basically the grown-up voters are going to have to take the reigns to keep trump out of power. unfortunately there are a lot of people in this country who aren't mature enough to make political decisions that will maintain stability, keep the economy somewhat running, make even incremental steps towards preserving the environment, etc. luckily the latter group are not the likeliest voters. if you hate the system and want it destroyed/think it's completely corrupted, generally you're less likely to participate in it.

the grown-up voters the grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up votersthe grown-up voters

right, not you

http://www.rollcall.com/mike-pence-chosen-as-trumps-v-p-nominee/

lol site swamped

boring

nice shitty choice. not sure what voters he expects Pence will help him pick up.

And all the McNuggets Christie fetched were for naught

i wonder what their source is.

this tweet from paul manafort was minutes ago:

https://twitter.com/PaulManafort/status/753626002056622080

Re: @realDonaldTrump VP selection, a decision will be made in the near future and the announcement will be tomorrow at 11am in New York.

i'm bummed, i was pulling for newt

fuck, now indiana is going to be stuck with an even worse governor. god dammit.

Pence is such a boring choice. Sad!

m yglesias is speculating about tom vilsack for vp. well it would make my parents happy.

Aaaaand Jesse Ventura comes out in support of Gary Johnson:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/13/jesse-ventura-why-im-voting-for-libertarian-candidate-gary-johnson-for-president-commentary.html

W. Post also talking Agriculture Secretary Vilsack with Clinton too

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/07/14/daily-202-keep-an-eye-on-tom-vilsack-in-hillary-clinton-s-veepstakes/57870a37cd96926bdf4092b6/

no newt? looks like I got the copyright on "All Wives Matter" for nothing.

roflz

Jesse Ventura: Still Alive!

mike penis more like amirite

^ gets it

penis vs ballsack

vilsack though? his name hadn't even come up until now. frankly I don't really care, all her options seem pretty good.

Pence is reprehensible. Usually with a republican I can find at least one thing about them I can agree with. Not here.

it's funny how all of Trump's options were p much old white dudes with dead careers

not sure what voters he expects Pence will help him pick up.

Pence is liked by the Kochs, so money is what he might help pick up.

ok, i'll defend the indefensible here: when pence passed that stupid rfra, he caved under immense economic pressure from the business community- pat mccrory didn't. so, you know, he's not completely committed to destroying capitalism for ideological purposes, unlike many other republican leaders.

The VP's name is really important: how it sounds, how it looks on a bumper sticker or a yard sign. Someone named 'Vilsack' will never be picked.

On the other hand, 'Trump/Pence' has a nice ring to it and looks good.

Least Beloved Trumppence

Johnson/Pence a missed opportunity

it'll cost you a truppence

xp let the record show that I had this display name before that post

feeeeeed the birds, trumppence a bag

^^^ I'm glad it wasn't just me