Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

being over 50% in July of his last year does put him in the category of "presidents who were popular when their terms ended," along with the three I mentioned and no one else in the post-WWII era (JFK excepted for obvious reasons). Maybe that's not remarkably high, but it's not too bad either

xp

It's not awful, it's not great. It's average basically.

I guess I wouldn't have disputed your original claim of medium popularity which strikes me as a fair assessment basically.

It's been a while since we've seen a good link of a movement Conservative being shocked, shocked to find bigotry in this casino, anyone got one

Either way you can see that presidential popularity isn't the most important factor since Nixon and Gore both lost despite be VPs for popular presidents... (or Gore sorta lost? Whatever. I guess Nixon might have won too.)

In July of their last year in office, Clinton was at 58, Reagan at 53, eisenhower at 56. obama's at 51, pretty clearly in the same league. My guess is it goes up as obama is statesmanlike until the end, and ends somewhere around where eisenhower's did.

I guess that puts Obama in the "popular presidents tier," not the "mediocre couldn't win re-election" tier or the "hated by the american public" tier. Hard to really decide what's remarkable with only 11 examples, I guess

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Alex in SF, that's a good point, and for sure the one I should have tried to make. It's actually pretty tough to win a third term for a sitting president's party, a certain fatigue or complacency or who knows what sets in. That's why it doesn't shock me that the GOP senate candidates in basically every toss-up state are polling higher than the Dems

nixon did win xxp

That chart also says average for US presidents is 53%... wonder what their disapproval % were though. Feels like that matters cuz Obama's are ridiculously high.

xp You mean Nixon beat Kennedy?

well obv not

Or he beat high voiced LBJ impersonator Hubert Humphrey?

Because I would say latter is a different situation... Nixon wasn't riding on Eisenhower's coattails.

i guess i was just thinking that ultimately he made good on that even tho it wasn't immediate

The wiki page for presidential approval has a breakdown for every prez

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating

There's fairly substantial "No Opinion" percentage until Clinton, so now the disapproval % is basically exactly what you'd expect based on the approval %

That eight years was a huge period of time in politics, I don't think Eisenhower's approval ratings were the driving factor.

anyway... who's looking forward to Trump's statement on the coup in Turkey!

These people have acted!

Beautiful! Sad!

please clap:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jeb-bush-trump-does-not-represent-the-future-of-the-country--or-the-gop/2016/07/15/370bb6f8-49be-11e6-90a8-fb84201e0645_story.html

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--kfrNQIVr--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/cx1nxzk0ikbzns79dnql.gif

oh my God @ that bush editorial

It's pretty much what most movement conservative types are saying/doing at this point. They're in a total fix -- they want to spend all their time (as they have for the past few cycles) at this point just spending all their energy trashing the Democratic Party opponent and otherwise going "Yeah our candidate isn't perfect but it's still all good." They are spending half their energy or more of it going "AAARRRRRGGGGGHHH" at Trump's success and seizing up, all while babbling about what 'real' conservatism is as a catechism. They have nothing else to do and nowhere else to go.

but but but gary johnson!

if he really wants to stick it to trump he'd endorse hillary. you wonder if he really believes that nonsense about democrats tearing apart the country, maybe he spouted it so much that he really does. alternatively he just thinks that endorsing hillary will make him a pariah.

I love how Jeb goes to bat for term limits, a balanced budget amendment, and the line item veto - all bold, fresh ideas that the public is clamoring for

can someone explain to me why a /seemingly/ "normal" (by GOP standards) pol like pence would commit political suicide?

if he really wants to stick it to trump he'd endorse hillary. you wonder if he really believes that nonsense about democrats tearing apart the country, maybe he spouted it so much that he really does. alternatively he just thinks that endorsing hillary will make him a pariah.

― iatee

lol "make him" a pariah

because he wasn't going to win reelection anyway

xp

http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/furious-christie-refuses-to-pick-up-trumps-dry-cleaning

Important Q: is the 'T' in the Trump/Pence logo penetrating the 'P' or is the 'P' a hand delicately jerking off the 'T'?

VP nod is basically a way for Pence to avoid having to run for governor, possibly catapult him onto the "national stage" without losing a humiliating election in his home state. This way when Trump loses he will still be a national GOP figure w career prospects.

xp

NO BOROWITZ
xp

yeah, let's make this a borowitz-free zone

VP nod is basically a way for Pence to avoid having to run for governor, possibly catapult him onto the "national stage" without losing a humiliating election in his home state. This way when Trump loses he will still be a national GOP figure w career prospects.

xp

― Οὖτις

i know people talk about what a close race he was running, but he really wouldn't have had that much trouble winning re-election. his would-have-been opponent is a mustachoied nonentity.

Wasn't there one time when Borowitz forgot to be desperately unfunny

lies

a 25% chance at becoming vice president and maybe then president - sure why not roll the dice

ok then what's yr explanation rushomancy? Pence dumb enough to think he can win the long odds?

I read that url as: jeb-bush-does-not-represent-the-future-of-the-country--or-the-gop, and I thought that's harsh of the WaPo, but fair.

ok then what's yr explanation rushomancy? Pence dumb enough to think he can win the long odds?

― Οὖτις

i have no explanation. he does have a reputation for being quayle-stupid, though.

That is the most logical explanation.

This way when Trump loses he will still be a national GOP figure w career prospects.

I think this is otm. Unless I've missed something, it's not like Mike Pence had some other incredibly bright potential future in store. I actually think the "say goodbye to your career" cost of associating with trump is pretty consistently overstated, at least for most GOP-ers. Not that anyone in this thread is saying that; I just see that a lot in the media generally, in my twitter feed, etc. But it seems pretty obvious that a far right dummy like Pence will have a much higher profile and better opportunities after this, even if he's on a losing ticket. It's not like anyone's going to blame him if they lose.

See: Sarah Palin

If Sarah Palin is the example then Trump will still be obnoxiously present years from now

I like this line from Nate Silver's state-of-the-race thing today--not saying it's actually ominous or anything, he's just throwing out questions ("What would keep me up late at night if I were Clinton?") because it's July and he has to write about something, but I think there's some validity to it: "In a big-picture sense, I’d be worried that Americans come to view the race as one between two equally terrible choices, instead of Trump being uniquely unacceptable."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-10-questions-about-where-the-2016-race-stands/

yeah, I liked that piece too. It's good to see that guy back doing the thing he's actually good at.

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/754095475888836608

don't know if people reading the front page of yahoo will catch the "satirical" aspect

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v212/etienne_saint/Screen%20Shot%202016-07-15%20at%206.05.42%20PM_zpsms4ledfj.png

If Sarah Palin is the example then Trump will still be obnoxiously present years from now

― Nhex, Friday, July 15, 2016 7:24 PM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Trump will be and was always gonna be obnoxiously present until he wheezes his final, fetid breath. The only difference is that he will soon be actively hated by a number of people who are now reluctantly supporting him once the veil drops and they realize how much damage was done to the GOP by the demon baby they birthed.