Rolling Brexit Links/UK politics in the neo-Weimar era

So are we listening to the voters now, or not? Because I don't think leave voters meant 'when you get around to it', or 'when it's politically convenient'.

non-binding referendum = glorified consultation.

Even if I wasn't being cynical, the referendum result approved a negative. It seems reasonable to try and come up with what the positive action should be as a consequence before leaping into the abyss, right?

A lot of leave voters believed a lot of different things including that they'd voted to end immigration while securing single market access and that we would leave immediately.

Any trade negotiations are likely to take considerably longer than two years and it would be stupid to invoke Article 50 before work had even begun on that.

There also appears to be some legal disagreement on whether or not May can push the button without parliamentary approval and that is almost certainly going to delay proceedings for longer than four or five months.

sad lol that we're now in the position of wondering when our unelected, remain-supporting pm will officially begin our democratically-determined national tantrum

the EU shd force us to get on with it, that'll confuse UKIP

Haha.

They really should - if we're going to do this stupid thing we should bear the consequences, rather than waiting in the hope of a good time to act, harming everyone.

barmy bleedin' faceless eu bureaucrats, tryin' to force us to do what we want to do

Yeah we should definitely do the stupid thing at the stupid time, that'll show the Leavees not to do it next time we have a vote to leave the EU.

I'm talking about what the eu should do, not what the uk should do.

from the eu's perspective pushing the uk into doing the stupid thing at the stupid time is likely their most effective defence against other member states deciding to leave

Polls across EU seem to suggest an uptick in pro-EU sentiment because of Brexit. Everyone has seen the chaos it's causing, nobody wants any of it. Prolonged uncertainty probably good on this front (bad for certain banks though)

Or, the quicker the bad effects are seen the better?

Not for us! And when push comes to shove, the costs of not triggering Article 50 are going to have to be much, much higher than they are now to making forcing an immediate A50 seem like the least-worst-option

To what extent is the UK's trade deficit actually likely to play to our advantage when it comes to negotiating the terms of Brexit? Germany alone has a pretty chunky trade surplus with Britain but other countries with a right of veto probably don't?

X-post of course not for us. For the eu, if Britain is going to leave. If we're talking about what's good for us we wouldn't leave at all. If we're talking about the mandate given in the referendum we should leave, having already chosen a terrible path.

Yes, but again the referendum didn't specify what was meant by that, and neither campaign gave any specifics -- there's no policy paper here (in stark contrast to indyref).

"We should leave the European Union". OK, by when? And on what terms? Replacing it with what? Nobody has any mandate for any answers to any of those questions.

We're still a representative democracy. Even Leave voters would be entitled to look at the carnage that surrounded a poorly-timed and badly planned exit and say to the Govt "these consequences are your fault, it was your job to fill in the blanks and get the best possible outcome for us here".

To what extent is the UK's trade deficit actually likely to play to our advantage when it comes to negotiating the terms of Brexit? Germany alone has a pretty chunky trade surplus with Britain but other countries with a right of veto probably don't?

― Matt DC, Tuesday, July 19, 2016 4:53 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

From a Dutch perspective: the UK is our third most important trade partner, behind Germany and Belgium. In export the UK is second, only behind Germany. Our national stats bureau has calculated that of our total production/services, 3.7% stems from UK demand. This supposedly comes down to 330.000 jobs. Making the Netherlands most dependent on the UK after Ireland and Malta.

Now that Brexit won, I can't deny feeling 'oh ffs you morons, get the fuck on with it then' and wishing for a swift departure. It's not what I wanted, but it is what it is I suppose. It really is like a break up of a relationship tbh, I lived and loved in Albion long enough to care deeply about it,, but you voted leave, it triggers 'then get the hell out asap' feelings within me. Not proud of that, but it seems to work that way. And I suppose lots of member states will feel the same way if the UK in the near future will try some delaying techniques to get the best deal out of this. Sad state of affairs all round.

boris off to a roaring start

Johnson was holding a press conference designed to showcase the continuing closeness of the UK-US special relationship in the wake of Brexit, as well as the joint commitment to finding a solution to the crisis in Syria.

Johnson twice referred to the crisis in Egypt, but was believed to be referring to Turkey.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/boris-johnson-grilled-past-outright-lies-uneasy-press-conference-john-kerry

I'm guessing May will be swilling her brandy and cackling at this, like some Bond movie baddie.

To what extent is the UK's trade deficit actually likely to play to our advantage when it comes to negotiating the terms of Brexit? Germany alone has a pretty chunky trade surplus with Britain but other countries with a right of veto probably don't?

― Matt DC, Tuesday, July 19, 2016 4:53 PM (4 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

A lot of what we buy from Germany does not have obvious substitutes, especially in things like industrial machinery. The magnitude of trade may go down because of a slump in the UK but the demand will still be there as its not like we can easily buy from Japan, the US or China or easily reverse 50 years of industrial decline and chronic underinvestment. So as far as negotiations go Germany does need the UK but not as much as the UK needs them.

Would guess that car sales account for a significant chunk of our imports from germany, not sure that the sort of people that buy bmws and mercedes and porsches and whatnot are going to switch to hyundai or whatever just cos the price has gone up by a few hundred quid

Or grands if we take the WTO 10% hit

They would still get the Audi but maybe let their gym membership slide for a year

make the housekeeper redundant

she's probably getting deported anyway

Grim lols

A new cross-party movement for progressive liberalism that could endorse candidates in favour of the EU and immigration at the next election is being set up by politicians, celebrities and intellectuals.

The initiative has the support of Jonathon Porritt, the environmentalist, Caroline Criado-Perez, the feminist writer, and Luke Pritchard from the band Kooks, as a space for people who want a voice for openness and tolerance.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/19/liberals-celebrities-and-eu-supporters-set-up-progressive-movement

already seen it. lolled.

Luke Pritchard from the band Kooks

no gaz coombes, no credibility

Have we all seen the Boris/Kerry video?

I'm guessing May will be swilling her brandy and cackling at this, like some Bond movie baddie.

If you're trying to prove that your (still) biggest rival for the leadership is completely incapable of standing on the international stage there are worse ways than putting them on the international stage. As long as he doesn't actually start a major diplomatic incident and May doesn't end up looking like a complete moron for putting him there in the first place.

Oh I'm sure she'll be fine, it always works out ok when Tory leaders take international policy gambles in an effort to strengthen their own position.

Hang on, Luke Pritchard? Lead singer of the band The Kooks, and he's also a

(sorry, fell asleep)

Latest YouGov poll:

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 40% (+10)
LAB: 29% (-4)
UKIP: 12% (-8)
LDEM: 9% (+3)
GRN: 3% (-)

I know lol polls etc but even so that is a BIG drop for UKIP - if this continues it suggests that, without Farage, without a raison d'etre (other than 'ban immigration'), and perhaps without adequate funding, it may just shrivel up altogether. The projected UKIP surge in Labour heartlands is so central to the strategy of both the Labour and Tory right that they may be bombing off down the wrong road entirely.

looking forward to the resurgence of the bnp as ukip voters head back to their natural ideological heartland, their anti-eu mission accomplished

The Resolution Foundation think tank, which has long supported Universal Credit, said the government should consider whether the "current design is right for the new economic conditions Britain faces".
"With most independent economic forecasts pointing to higher inflation and lower real wage growth in the coming years, implementing Universal Credit in its current form risks deepening the squeeze on living standards facing low and middle income families," said the foundation's senior economic analyst David Finch.

So they are pausing universal credit until 2022, but basically fuck the areas where it has already been rolled out and contributing towards the child poverty spike and many other social ills.

sorry I forgot to add #One nation

nice to see the guardian editorial team concur that theresa may's unfunny, unpleasant jeering at pmqs is the kind of charisma the country needs

"her final words suddenly took on the resonant tone of Britain’s only other female prime minister. It was a spine-tingling moment"

"The Guardian editorial team" is a somewhat misleading way of sourcing that. Those are the words of Mark Wallace of ConservativeHome, the token Tory on the panel the Guardian put together for a roundtable verdict:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/20/theresa-may-first-pmq-prime-minister-questions-panel

sorry i meant to quote the other three clowns as well but was overwhelmed by listlessness when doing so; i appreciate the correction, tho

Polly Toynbee:
"Serious and commanding, she showed how PMQs should be done – with forensic fact and deadly precision alongside flick-knife jabs."

Ayesha Hazarika, "a senior Labour adviser to Harriet Harman and Ed Miliband and now a political commentator":
"Theresa May had a brutally brilliant PMQs debut ... rose to the occasion and hit the back of the net again and again. "

Joseph Harker, Guardian 'deputy opinion editor':
"Corbyn ... sounds self-righteous, more at home in student politics."

i feel demeaned that i'm saying this, but thank god for john crace /:

May did seem a tad snide at the time. Do hope the members that benefit from JC do get the full benefit and he isn't stuck with clowns for the next few years.
Is the party just going to remain dysfunctional or is it going to be purged of its 5th column?
Would bet that further voting fees that don't come with full membership will have people either looking elsewhere or giving up.
& further rebel stooges will be beyond a joke.

Is Toynbee right wing Labour or where does she lie? I know her from strips in the Guardian etc that I thought were at least semi political. Does she have a regular column now?

There's a world of difference between acknowledging that Theresa May performed well at PMQs and thinking she is what the country needs!

xp she's a Brown-ite ultra basically

not xp no there isn't