Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

Will opposition research even play a part this time? Surely almost everyone's made up their minds about both candidates.

theres actually an insane number of undecided voters because everyone hates both candidates

http://i.imgur.com/mosBODZ.png

http://i.imgur.com/mosBODZ.png

actually scary

tho i still think clinton will win pretty handily / will wait til after the conventions to worry abt the polls

Gee they are so much alike I just can't decide smh

lol

Trump Jr seems like a real swell fella

hillary clinton will find a way to bumble her way through some stupid and tone-deaf errors, there will be a period at some pt where trump is even or a little ahead in the polls and the whole earth will flip its shit, then hillary will win a map that looks kinda like the 2nd obama map

i'm already terrified for 2020! we're kinda due for a recession!

calling it now to seem sage in the future: Clinton wins this election, American economy goes into recession during her term, she loses in 2020.

Trump Jr seems like a real swell fella

― Clay, Tuesday, July 19, 2016 7:25 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i know someone who went to high school with him who said he was a total stoner greaseball who took a year off before college to road trip the country in a van, also everyone called him donnie

also she said hes "totally normal" but given the milieu she grew up in im not sure if she knows what that means

i know someone who went to high school with him who said he was a total stoner greaseball who took a year off before college to road trip the country in a van, also everyone called him donnie

― lag∞n

specifically, the only thing anybody ever said to him was "shut the fuck up donnie"

:]

I guess I just can't deal with anyone who has that slicked back 1987 Wall Street asshole Pat Riley hair thing going on

https://vine.co/v/5Zp2L5qBzI2

oh he seems awful dont get me wrong i was just passing along some insider info

did trump do his monica lewinsky slideshow yet? when is that?

hillary clinton will find a way to bumble her way through some stupid and tone-deaf errors, there will be a period at some pt where trump is even or a little ahead in the polls and the whole earth will flip its shit, then hillary will win a map that looks kinda like the 2nd obama map

i'm already terrified for 2020! we're kinda due for a recession!

― goole, Tuesday, July 19, 2016 11:25 PM (19 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

some bastard on the radio was like 'this is technically the beginning of the 2020 primary here in Cleveland'

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

so earlier i was listening to the fox news channel online coverage to see what they were saying and there was a lot of talk about this article

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/07/rnc-2016-gop-republican-party-leaders-future-donald-trump-214065

there is a big shadow convention going on where all the GOP leaders including the big $$$ people are planning what to do to pick up the pieces after the implosion this fall, because they all agree that's what's going to happen. they're already looking past this election and planning 2020.

whats funny is everyone is just gonna try to imitate trump next time because thats what republicans want, god help us if someone really clever and competent who can strike the right balance rolls around

of course that person will prob just do conventional republican things upon getting in office

good news is the dems structural advantage in presidential elections is prob just growing exponentially

feel bad for these republican dudes. they're only going to have control of the house, senate, and most state governments. sad

one problem for republicans is imo is that the pundit and talk radio circuit is dominated by these shrieking maniacs who drive away the more moderate part of their base while keeping potential crossover voters from ever even considering them.

gop bout to lose the senate at least

it's almost like they're great at plowing a profitable niche at the expense of evolving a wider public service-type appeal

the article about bill kristol sadly wandering around cleveland made me feel kiiiiinda bad for him but in the end him and his smoke filled room GOP buddies can go suck a dick.

feel bad for these republican dudes. they're only going to have control of the house, senate, and most state governments. sad

everything i have read/heard is that the democrats are expecting these to all move pretty significantly their way in the fall esp now that the GOP actually went and nominated trump

Will opposition research even play a part this time? Surely almost everyone's made up their minds about both candidates.

theres actually an insane number of undecided voters because everyone hates both candidates

I don't think these two statements are mutually exclusive. I'm sure there are a lot of undecideds, but my guess is many if not most of them will vote in the end (or stay home) based on who they viscerally dislike less, rather than finding out Trump did this or Clinton did that. They already really dislike both. I especially don't think soft Trump-leaners will be dissuaded by finding out more unseemly stuff about him--can it get any worse with him? I can maybe see where wavering Clinton-leaning voters (Sanders supporters or otherwise) might bail is ugly stuff about the Foundation came out.

Anyway, I think Clinton will win and all of that will have minimal impact.

idk what is happening nationwide to the "aspirational wasp" republicans who believe in "the market" and are maybe sort of of socially conservative but not fanatics about it. i have people in my extended family who fit this bill and they are not voting for trump. my dad actually used to vote republican but he jumped ship in 08, voting for obama and never looking back.

i don't think the modern gop appeals to people who don't want to put "republican" at the center of their identity. i wonder to what degree this is borne out by the numbers.

is = if

last post was xp to nomar. this page moves so fast it's like the ilx of yore

dems have a lot of work to do on the state level and their organization there has been shameful, theyre kinda just perennially screwed in congress due to structural issues tho they have an outside chance of capturing both chambers this cycle

The green algae upstate is more organized than Florida Democrats.

paul singer building a possibly slightly more coordinated donor apparatus is the only thing in that politico "shadow cabinet" article that suggests these people have even one clue how to start to resolve their current national problems

just need to get the next round of candidates in a room and tell them "dont actually say the things"

good luck with that

i mean all the mini anti trump gatherings can't even keep the batshit out of their own supposedly protest platforms

Perhaps one might imagine the national electorate as a shallow dish of milk. Tilt one way, and voters spill off that side. Tilt the other way, and voters spill off the other side. Every move that wins you a vote on the right loses you one on the left.

I don't think the Trumpers are going to buy Trump-lite next time. The same message in a more-acceptable vessel is not the same message.

They may double down by plumping for some populist AMERICA FUCK YEAH candidate - Cotton, Gowdy, Sessions, Arpaio, Wurzelbacher, Duck Dynasty dood - who lacks the full Trump (ahem) package. They may find that a Tim Scott or Jan Brewer or Sarah Palin gets them some of the same thrills. But these candidates are not national general-election winners now, and they will be even less viable then.

What they will NOT do imo is unite behind some more or less responsible, experienced, electable grownup, no matter how much he or she parrots the Trumpian line. Having tasted the near-fulfillment of their darkest id, they will not be satisfied by imitations.

I'm also going to go out on a limb and say Clinton might feel like her election was vindication enough, and decline to run again. It would be an interesting fuck-you move to her haters, to deny them the opportunity to come after her with the pitchforks one last time. If she could pass the baton onward to someone with less baggage, so much the better.

trump nation is demographically screwed

the only shot for the republicans is to do what romney and the bushes want to do: rebrand as pro-life, slightly more hawkish democrats. i'd put money on them nominating someone relatively normal like ben sasse or nikki haley in 2020. they'll have more "party discipline" and prevent a situation where the field is overly divided.

"also going to go out on a limb and say Clinton might feel like her election was vindication enough, and decline to run again. "

lol what

Treeship
Posted: July 19, 2016 at 6:17:17 PM
trump nation is demographically screwed

yup tho particular contingencies can always tip an election, and they cant rebrand as less racist cause its their constituencys primary issue

demographically screwed - That's true too, Treeship.

So even if Ivanka, Eric, Don Jr. and Tiffany run successive Trumpesque campaigns, the Angry Old White Guy vote is finished as a national force. It is still strong in exurban/rural congressional districts. I expect the House or Representatives to remain pretty red for a while (ditto red-state statehouses) but its relevance will continue to diminish.

What are the chances that Paul Ryan's speech will be loudly booed tonight?

I hope Lord Humungus shows up

you guys should watch this farrago on C-SPAN, it's great.

it's still a big enough and passionate enough plurality it'll continue to cause havoc into the next prez election imo

if i were to play sage i'd say clinton wins a plurality reelection with numbers not unlike bill's regardless of possible recession or other circumstances just due to plenty of track still available to the crazy train

xp to ye mad puffin

omg Dana White speaking