Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

gop bout to lose the senate at least

it's almost like they're great at plowing a profitable niche at the expense of evolving a wider public service-type appeal

the article about bill kristol sadly wandering around cleveland made me feel kiiiiinda bad for him but in the end him and his smoke filled room GOP buddies can go suck a dick.

feel bad for these republican dudes. they're only going to have control of the house, senate, and most state governments. sad

everything i have read/heard is that the democrats are expecting these to all move pretty significantly their way in the fall esp now that the GOP actually went and nominated trump

Will opposition research even play a part this time? Surely almost everyone's made up their minds about both candidates.

theres actually an insane number of undecided voters because everyone hates both candidates

I don't think these two statements are mutually exclusive. I'm sure there are a lot of undecideds, but my guess is many if not most of them will vote in the end (or stay home) based on who they viscerally dislike less, rather than finding out Trump did this or Clinton did that. They already really dislike both. I especially don't think soft Trump-leaners will be dissuaded by finding out more unseemly stuff about him--can it get any worse with him? I can maybe see where wavering Clinton-leaning voters (Sanders supporters or otherwise) might bail is ugly stuff about the Foundation came out.

Anyway, I think Clinton will win and all of that will have minimal impact.

idk what is happening nationwide to the "aspirational wasp" republicans who believe in "the market" and are maybe sort of of socially conservative but not fanatics about it. i have people in my extended family who fit this bill and they are not voting for trump. my dad actually used to vote republican but he jumped ship in 08, voting for obama and never looking back.

i don't think the modern gop appeals to people who don't want to put "republican" at the center of their identity. i wonder to what degree this is borne out by the numbers.

is = if

last post was xp to nomar. this page moves so fast it's like the ilx of yore

dems have a lot of work to do on the state level and their organization there has been shameful, theyre kinda just perennially screwed in congress due to structural issues tho they have an outside chance of capturing both chambers this cycle

The green algae upstate is more organized than Florida Democrats.

paul singer building a possibly slightly more coordinated donor apparatus is the only thing in that politico "shadow cabinet" article that suggests these people have even one clue how to start to resolve their current national problems

just need to get the next round of candidates in a room and tell them "dont actually say the things"

good luck with that

i mean all the mini anti trump gatherings can't even keep the batshit out of their own supposedly protest platforms

Perhaps one might imagine the national electorate as a shallow dish of milk. Tilt one way, and voters spill off that side. Tilt the other way, and voters spill off the other side. Every move that wins you a vote on the right loses you one on the left.

I don't think the Trumpers are going to buy Trump-lite next time. The same message in a more-acceptable vessel is not the same message.

They may double down by plumping for some populist AMERICA FUCK YEAH candidate - Cotton, Gowdy, Sessions, Arpaio, Wurzelbacher, Duck Dynasty dood - who lacks the full Trump (ahem) package. They may find that a Tim Scott or Jan Brewer or Sarah Palin gets them some of the same thrills. But these candidates are not national general-election winners now, and they will be even less viable then.

What they will NOT do imo is unite behind some more or less responsible, experienced, electable grownup, no matter how much he or she parrots the Trumpian line. Having tasted the near-fulfillment of their darkest id, they will not be satisfied by imitations.

I'm also going to go out on a limb and say Clinton might feel like her election was vindication enough, and decline to run again. It would be an interesting fuck-you move to her haters, to deny them the opportunity to come after her with the pitchforks one last time. If she could pass the baton onward to someone with less baggage, so much the better.

trump nation is demographically screwed

the only shot for the republicans is to do what romney and the bushes want to do: rebrand as pro-life, slightly more hawkish democrats. i'd put money on them nominating someone relatively normal like ben sasse or nikki haley in 2020. they'll have more "party discipline" and prevent a situation where the field is overly divided.

"also going to go out on a limb and say Clinton might feel like her election was vindication enough, and decline to run again. "

lol what

Treeship
Posted: July 19, 2016 at 6:17:17 PM
trump nation is demographically screwed

yup tho particular contingencies can always tip an election, and they cant rebrand as less racist cause its their constituencys primary issue

demographically screwed - That's true too, Treeship.

So even if Ivanka, Eric, Don Jr. and Tiffany run successive Trumpesque campaigns, the Angry Old White Guy vote is finished as a national force. It is still strong in exurban/rural congressional districts. I expect the House or Representatives to remain pretty red for a while (ditto red-state statehouses) but its relevance will continue to diminish.

What are the chances that Paul Ryan's speech will be loudly booed tonight?

I hope Lord Humungus shows up

you guys should watch this farrago on C-SPAN, it's great.

it's still a big enough and passionate enough plurality it'll continue to cause havoc into the next prez election imo

if i were to play sage i'd say clinton wins a plurality reelection with numbers not unlike bill's regardless of possible recession or other circumstances just due to plenty of track still available to the crazy train

xp to ye mad puffin

omg Dana White speaking

UFC dude btw

Florida will be underwater by then so I'll be living in a submarine in 2020 anyway

Bloodsport!

You all are brave for watching this. I really can't subject myself to that level of torture. ILX's reactions are good enough for me.

another angry ranty guy will def help win over undecided voters esp women

Maybe if they yell loud enough?

the Angry Old White Guy vote is finished as a national force.

Brought this up before, but Angry White Guy seems to be doing pretty a-ok on every front except the White House and (by extension) the Supreme Court. Where and when is this long forecast demographic landslide in the opposite direction?

from what I got from Dana White was that the UFC was classified as a bloodsport until Trump came along

Writer John Scalzi dubbed this Josh Marshall thought "Trump's Razor:"

Early on I realized that when it came to Trump if I figured out the stupidest possible scenario that could be reconciled with the available facts and went with it, that almost always turned out to be right. The stupider, the righter.

You all are brave for watching this. I really can't subject myself to that level of torture. ILX's reactions are good enough for me.

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, July 19, 2016 8:33 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ya i intrpret it strictly from online

Arkansas representing.

Time to update your resumes!

wow chyrons on cnn right now as mukasey speaks -->

mukasey joined with other gop national security officials saying they could not support trump

mukasey has called trump's criticism of a latino judge 'baseless and squalid'

he wants to be attorney general don't blame him

Trump speaking from Trump Tower

now Mitch is up

Man, Trump's continued lack of specifics is so troubling. When he blurts about "restoring law and order" it really does sound like some despot. Does Trump even know that others got to fascism first?

Wow, Mitch is terrible at the podium.

Democrats spreading Zika

this is moving along!

Nixon wasn't specific either!

smh john scalzi

so is ryan going to mention trump at all, i wonder

We've been waiting on the phone until we talk to real person! (re: Obama)

xpost You're my guy, happy to credit you over Scalzi!

Aw, shucks, it's Paul Ryan.