Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

this campaign has some good conspiracy theories http://www.inc.com/jeff-bercovici/peter-thiel-donald-trump-crazy.html

i suspect that trump will do one debate then embarrass himself trying to find excuses to avoid the others.

by all rights the debates should be his waterloo, and there's no way he'll come off well, but i can also imagine clinton fucking them up and making it all a wash.

the media will seize on one or two dumb misstatements by clinton and put them in the same news piece as all the nonsense that flows from trump's mouth and talk about how "both candidates had their strong and weaker moments."

It's much easier to imagine Obama stumbling (as he did once in 2012) than HRC. She's prepared for this shit.

my feeling is the debates will prob go clintons way and theres a YUGE downside risk for trump

Agree with lag∞n, skipping even one debate is untenable. McCain tried to wrap the idea around national duty during the bank meltdown, and he was ridiculed for even that. Multiply that exponentially for Trump.

and let's not forget: Trump's audiences want him to debate Clinton and destroy her, if possible handcuff her and take her to jail himself.

summary execution

yeah, Trump doesn't have a So You Think You Can Dance-style battle of attrition to use to his benefit, it's 1 on 1 now (1 on 2 if you count Gary Johnson, but that mofo isn't going to do no 8% at election time, Nader was polling high too before election).

he's probably got a higher floor than he should have with his fans who will follow him off a cliff, but the undecideds are going to run screaming (or stay home).

Hillary wins 562 to -24

(xpost) Just like Republicans were blood-crazy to see Gingrich, um, put Obama in his place once and for all.

the best will be the vice presidential debate [two guys clearing their throats for an hour]

Trump's only getting a few points of a bump now due to the RNC and the craziness of the last few weeks, but give the polls some time to catch up with the noise of this week and the post-DNC bump and it'll be back to massacre-town

Dem convention should just be three days of replaying the RNC on a big screen with the guys from MST3K doing audio.

Didn't Comedy Central do something like this back in the '92 or 96 seasons? Also, you'd have to get Joel back to hosting as Mike Nelson(and his wife) have reportedly somewhat more disagreeable political leanings

ya polls not really worth much til both conventions been over for ~a week

god i hate Thiel. there is a lot of people i hate in this circus, but Thiel grates me the most. Trump will end up losing, and the other politicians have a limited influence on my life (I don't live in the US), but Thiel is inescapable and it makes me feel so dirty.

Also, Trump will do all the debates b/c there's no way he will miss out primetime network coverage, but the GOP types will be gaming the refs harder than they ever did four years ago no matter who asks the candidates what questions and how milquetoast they phrase it

http://giphy.com/gifs/mashable-xTiTndCIut7o7OpEL6

Which I should mention makes me wonder how she'll hold up during 3 90-120min debates. Clinton survived 15+ fuckin' hours of the (latest) Benghazi panel staffed with the largest sets of clown shoes Congress could find.

She survived by keeping this face the whole time

https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/mt/2015/10/RTS5OEU-1/lead_960.jpg?1445611733

Dem convention should just be three days of replaying the RNC on a big screen with the guys from MST3K doing audio.

Didn't Comedy Central do something like this back in the '92 or 96 seasons? Also, you'd have to get Joel back to hosting as Mike Nelson(and his wife) have reportedly somewhat more disagreeable political leanings

― Sentient animated cat gif (kingfish)

i want to know if nelson is still on the republican train. you know, he's still funny- how long can you ride that train before you baio out? i'd like to think that mike nelson is one of those guys who will very earnestly and enthusiastically tell you that gary johnson is a really good candidate, really, and you should definitely think about him. but i don't know!

"She survived by keeping this face the whole time"

probably good of her to get the practice in

The Democrats should throw the aide who tried to resign today up on the big screen, with everyone in the building thrusting their fists in the air and chanting "LOCK HER UP! LOCK HER UP!" This is bloodsport--you can't be passive.

oh goodie Rick Scott

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn2N5dvW8AMtram.jpg

To paraphrase John McGiver in Breakfast at Tiffany's, you can't really fire Hillary Clinton at this point, I don't think, unless there were some job she currently held in order to have some object from which to enact the firing.

Got this email from Morbius last night:

Email from user: helpless before THRILLARY
Yahoo7
ro✧✧✧@il✧✧✧.c✧✧ Jul 20 at 8:18 PM

Message body:
rooting you bitches get Trump now.

Nice of him to think of us

BTW, Morbs, I'm not even American

"Lock her up" day 3 is well underway i see

Let me remind people about Pam Bondi: http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/10/politics/pam-bondi-donald-trump-donation/

this lock her up stuff is p bad man wow

idk I'd lock up Pam Bondi

id murder p much anyone tbh

but a whole bunch of ppl screaming abt it is just... off, big league

also the fact that theyre so unmoored from reality i guess

so far the big news of the convention is plagiarism and lock her up cant wait to see what comes next trump hasnt even spoken

Don't forget Lucifer, he had a big night too.

see i already even forgot abt him, wild ride folks

From an adjacent room, this astronaut woman sounds exactly like Sarah Palin.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cn2VraXXEAAbPzN.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hzaBHnNI_I

Does Trump speak tonight? Is this night three or night 333?

no one ask James Morrison how to pronounce Pam Bondi

lol fat dracula

http://i.imgur.com/zITAU0M.png

what the hell with the sieg heil shit

Brian Kaylor ‏@BrianKaylor 12m12 minutes ago
For evangelicals watching #RNCinCLE, please note this is the 3rd 'prosperity gospel' preacher at mic & no evangelicals in 3 nights

scott walker can't rock a crowd, this call-and-response is really doa

"America...deserves...better"--test-driving more election-friendly chants than "LOCK HER UP!"

(As I type, of course, I can hear "jail" in the background.)

yeah uh.. https://twitter.com/giphy/status/755921685736546305

its extremely odd is there a video what was she saying

guy at NRO: Just read Cruz transcript. He will not endorse Trump or even say his name.

jon favreau (obama speechwriter): Just read @newtgingrich's speech. If you don't want your children to have nightmares, I'd put them to bed soon.

Lyin' Ted!