Curb Your Authoritarianism? The 2016 Conventional Wisdom Thread (Elections, Part 6)

i will buy the inevitable 800 page book about the 2016 republican primary and convention the instant it comes out

His reputation is that he will throw anyone under the bus for himself, and regularly does big, attention-getting things to help himself at the party's expense.

Which, trying to view last night as a Republican might, pretty much describes his non-endorsement speech.

From what I can tell, he is both unlikable on a personal level and unwilling to modulate in any way that doesn't directly benefit himself. Imagine working with someone like that (if you haven't already).

any predictions for Trumps' speech tonight? I'm predicting 100% nationalism, but who knows maybe he'll go off script. Must-see TV!!

I will be shocked if he doesn't mention Cruz or Melania's 'plagiarism'. Actually, his handlers may have him rigged up so that he's literally shocked if he mentions either.

"My fellow Americans... BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY HOWARD STERN'S PENIS BABA BOOOEEEYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY"
*runs screaming off the stage, entire trump family collapses in laughter*

i will buy the inevitable 800 page book about the 2016 republican primary and convention the instant it comes out

― nomar, Thursday, July 21, 2016 4:04 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

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my guess is it starts off as a regular convention speech about the challenges this country faces and what it takes to solve them, and Trump delivers it pretty rotely. Like with the Pence announcement, he goes off script pretty quickly, leans really hard into the "lock her up" stuff, as well as the muslim ban and the wall. My guess there is maybe a passing reference to Cruz that Trump expands on in his typical fashion.

hoping trump makes his entrance bursting out of a giant cake with his face iced on it

wheeled onstage by chris christie obv

If he's smart, he'll make a couple of innocuous, gee-whiz jokes about Cruz, who miraculously granted Trump some victim sympathy last night.

Nah, he'll mention how he defeated Cruz and how Cruz should be embarrased,. He'll definitely blow his opportunity to be statesmanlike there

Odds that Trump was going to suddenly learn how to be statesmanlike in time for this speech...?

lol was going to say ! they had three days to make this thing look respectable and said fuck that "HANG HER" why are they going to start now?

how long is Trump going to speak tonight?

He managed to discipline himself a bit with that initial tweet last night. Maybe somewhere in between; I don't think he's going to come out and yell "Lyin' Ted, back in business!"

any predictions for Trumps' speech tonight? I'm predicting 100% nationalism, but who knows maybe he'll go off script. Must-see TV!!

― frogbs, Thursday, July 21, 2016 8:06 PM (13 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

npr this morning said the speech was going to be about his ability to be a uniter, which will be a tremendous load of horse shit

I don't know, it seems like he unites a lot of people for him and a lot of people against him

united in their divisions

Wouldn't last night even make him an attractive target in a Republican senate primary? Although the dynamic there is usually a rabid "outsider" taking on a party-loyal career politician, and Cruz scrambles that.

Possibly, but I'm not really seeing any challengers. Cruz is simpatico with Gov. Abbott & Lt. Gov. Patrick, and the three of them are all up for re-election in '18..."Don't change horse in midstream..." etc. Under Clinton, they'll stick to their (figurative & literal) guns; perhaps more so under Trump.

And of course there's the Texit, which would throw everything out the window...

why is my state such a shitshow?

I almost miss Rick Perry

and Perry made me nostalgic for Bush, ugh....

why is my state such a shitshow?

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, July 21, 2016 1:36 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

gerrymandering and voter suppression, presumably

sometimes I'm nostalgic for both Rick Perry AND Michele Bachman

http://i.imgur.com/kBJZR.gif

If he's smart, he'll make a couple of innocuous, gee-whiz jokes about Cruz, who miraculously granted Trump some victim sympathy last night.

which reminds me - obviously I'm not watching all of this, but isn't it a bit weird that there hasn't been like, a single laugh throughout this whole thing? aren't these conventions supposed to be like pep rallies?

thanks, Dan

any time!

I dunno, does this look like a case of gerrymandering?

https://dl.dropbox.com/s/j1qlydo81ftsnaq/Central%20Texas%20Districts.png?dl=0

xxxpost these guys think chanting "Lock her up" is hilarious

and those Benghazi marines were making tampon jokes on Monday

Meanwhile, sorrows from the religious right:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/religous-right-gop-convention

Tommy Valentine, a 22-year-old delegate from Virginia, said he felt like Trump was costing them a major opportunity.

“We had really good candidates and this was our chance to really turn back the tide on what’s been happening in the last eight years. ... Out of 17 candidates, we nominated the worst possible candidate,” Valentine told TPM at the lunch. “I’m just scared. I think Trump’s gonna go down in flames. There is no party unity and you see better speakers at CPAC then you do at this Republican convention because nobody wants to hear Donald Trump.”

As he spoke, Valentine fought back tears.

"Valentine then realized maybe he shouldn't've used his dating profile pseudonym."

i get more of a "power pop band pseudonym" vibe from that, honestly

Pobrecito.

"pool shark from guys and dolls"

and you see better speakers at CPAC

Rick Perry and Scott Walker?

i get more of a "power pop band pseudonym" vibe from that, honestly

Michael Stipe's pre-REM name was Michael Valentine, when he played in Gangster.

The Valentine in question. I've no doubt he's earnest.

https://www.facebook.com/tommyvalentine2016/photos/a.1662805140654930.1073741825.1662804880654956/1664509417151169/?type=3&theater

tonight's speech will probably look like something out of Manchurian Candidate

I'm weirdly excited for this

he's going to sing the speech to the tune of "Hello Muddah, Hello Faddah"

He'll pretend to fall to his knees a couple of times and Chris Christie will bring out a cape to put around his shoulders.

https://youtu.be/_k8YpQKzl_k

Reactions to the leaked speech are already out there, maybe?

More excited for Peter Thiel's speech about being a gay republican tbh

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-republican-convention-2016-live-small-business-owner-michelle-van-1469050586-htmlstory.html?utm_source=kw&kwp_0=187436&kwp_4=745982&kwp_1=375741

so Rasmussen still is roughly 4-5% in the wrong direction in all of its polls thus far, today being the only poll to give Trump a slim lead (and last week it had one that had Trump up 7 when the rest were roughly even or with HIllary in the lead). they were notoriously bad the last two elections too.

I know Gallup was the institution that actually proclaimed they would rework their methodology to improve the Republican bias their polls unwittingly churned out. Does Rasmussen just ngaf or something?

their shit's always amusing.

I wish I could watch this speech!

I expect it will be at about 3am my time.