I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Tejas in play?

http://m.statesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/trump-has-six-point-lead-over-clinton-in-texas-bui/nsGjz/

nah

2020 mmmmaybe

the best thing about this is, ultimately, the GOP takeaway will be "Trump was a disaster, if only we would have nominated one of the 15 damaged, repellent dipshits that he walked all over in the primaries we could have won!!"

Texas is weird in that it's the metropolitan areas that trend conservative and the more rural immigrant-rich areas which trend liberal. So even with the ever growing non-white population in Texas, the people in the cities call the shots. 2020 even is probably wishful thinking.

IIRC, Texas is in play by 2024 if the Latino turnout climbs a good deal but not until 2032 if it doesn't.

That's not quite right about urban/rural BTW - the four largest cities all vote Democratic now (Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, Austin), the suburbs are Republican and most of the rural areas are Republican, except for right on the border.

http://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2013/07/obama-romney-texas.jpg

Yeah, I knew I was kind of forcing it, but Texas is still kind of atypical when compared to a lot of other states (in that many of its least populous areas vote blue).

the best thing about this is, ultimately, the GOP takeaway will be "Trump was a disaster, if only we would have nominated one of the 15 damaged, repellent dipshits that he walked all over in the primaries we could have won!!"

That will be amusing if attempted.

It will also be funny if they conclude the opposite - that what they need is Moar Trumpiness. Look forward to a close-fought contest between Joe Arpaio, Tom Tancredo, and Joe "the Plumber" Wurzelbacher. Trey Gowdy and Tom Cotton will present themselves as the safe, sane, electable establishment types.

This will all be accompanied by a relentless drumbeat from the grassroots to draft Sarah Palin. And at the last possible moment, she will miraculously ride in to the convention arena on the back of a rabid grizzly and save the day.

There was already a good chance that a Republican never wins a presidential election again, but if they opt to go more nativist and conspiratorial next election, that pretty much ensures it.

Who should play Trump in Clinton's debate prep sessions?

i think it was Alfred on one of the earlier threads who suggested james carville after a couple of cocktails.

I saw my parents over the weekend (they live in Alabama, and are by-the-book Republicans). They voted for Kasich in the primaries, but admitted they were probably voting for Trump in the general while admitting they haven't been following even a quarter of the news coverage about him. There were lots of things I brought up that he'd said that they had no idea about. It's definitely disappointing on a personal level that my parents would stoop to do this, but I was happy to remind them that because they live in Alabama anyway it didn't matter in the grand scheme. If they lived in a swing state, I'd be livid.

the best thing about this is, ultimately, the GOP takeaway will be "Trump was a disaster, if only we would have nominated one of the 15 damaged, repellent dipshits that he walked all over in the primaries we could have won!!"

― Pull your head on out your hippy haze (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, August 16, 2016 4:10 PM (22 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it's gonna be so good

re: trump is not actually doing historically badly with hispanic voters (better than romney?!). if that persists, hilllary winning tx would depend entirely on growing hispanic turnout/population rather than changing minds. she can't count on his being a uniquely repellent republican nominee because apparently he's not?

https://twitter.com/adrian_gray/status/764993758865846292

since they do live in a red state why not encourage them to vote hillary since there's no chance she's going to win alabama and trump is such an odious disgusting immoral figure that casting a ballot for him probably damages yr soul and hurts yr stake in the afterlife. xxp

ironic/gross enough: the GOP could just be an immigration restrictionist party and it wouldn't be as susceptible to trumpism.

They hate her because they've been trained to, despite me pointing out that she's basically a 60s/70s Republican centrist. xp

these people are nuts https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-campaign-insiders-explain-their-war-on-the-media-203810219.html?_fsig=tzhz7uX5nZ8Dg2X4FbQEPw

I don't think Trump is that close with Latino voters in most polls. Seems like they've been showing Hillary at 80%+ most of the time.

http://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-has-a-big-hispanic-problem-in-florida

“Attacking the media wins you votes. The voters have become skeptical of the media,” Stone explained. “You know, it’s not like the days when everyone believed Walter Cronkite. Nobody believes these bastards now because the news is indeed biased.”

lol it wins you SOME votes amongst people who use the word "lamestream" in their daily vocabulary, everybody else just gets tired of your petulant whining.

Stone is like people who think that because vinyl is selling more than it has in twenty years the music industry will soon return to some pre-Napster idyll.

Stone and the rest of Nixon's administration were big fans of the media back in the golden days.

Which of course leads to this, from an upcoming piece by Oliver Darcy for Business Insider, from an interview with right-wing radio guy Charlie Sykes:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cp2BSvnXYAA84Ch.jpg

“I get a little bit of a smile when I see at night … when journalists take a look and essentially acknowledge that they’re reading these and that they’re paying attention,” Miller said. “Our goal in this is to call attention to what we see as the most extreme examples of media bias with an effort of making folks think twice about everything from story placement to fairness.”

and these journos will smile when your crew gets fucking smoked in november and you're unemployable

Roger Stone-

Roger Stone and Robert Morrow's book The Clintons' War On Women is dedicated to and repeatedly cites research from Victor Thorn, who wrote The Holocaust Hoax Exposed and blames a "Jewish plot" for the 9/11 attacks

http://mediamatters.org/research/2015/11/13/anti-clinton-authors-dedicated-their-book-to-a/206837

in other news, baby thing was one case where Trump had a point (which doesn't negate the millions of other idiotic things he has said)

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/aug/08/donald-trump/donald-trump-accurately-says-media-wrong-he-kicked/

its hard to get a sense where this turd is joking, lying, telling the truth, etc since everything that comes out of his mouth is garbage

and these journos will smile when your crew gets fucking smoked in november and you're unemployable

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, August 16, 2016 5:55 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i always find it amusing when the party that fetishes gun ownership and currently has a Presidential nominee who resorts to intimidation and bully tactics turn into whiny 11 year old boys when it comes to the media and its perceived lack of "fairness"

Someone should make a Trump speak version lorem ipsum generator.

I don't think Trump is that close with Latino voters in most polls. Seems like they've been showing Hillary at 80%+ most of the time.

the point of that tweet is not that trump is doing well with hispanics. it's that nationally he's doing no worse than the last two republican nominees.

the florida poll says "This time, Trump may fare as badly with Hispanics in Florida as he does nationally, potentially spelling doom for his chances" but that poll suggests the "may" in this sentence turns out not to be true.

sorry "the florida article you linked to says", and the "poll i linked to" suggests

i cannot write today

Caveats:

1) Always a blowhard.
2) A month ago, Moore was gravely warning everyone that not only could Trump win, he was going to.

But this is not all that far away from where I am in trying to figure out the last three weeks. Can't tell if the "inside information" stuff is meant to be true or heavy-handed satire.

http://michaelmoore.com/TrumpSabotage/

who the hell is "don" in the post script? draper?

Donald Trump never actually wanted to be President of the United States. I know this for a fact. I’m not going to say how I know it.

Great intro

3 more months guys. soon enough we will all be delivered from this nightmare.

xp reading comprehension fail I am the dumbest person ever

i hate how the word "bias" is used as a scare word by people who don't even know what it means

ppl think the new york times makes shit up all the time or something.

You're bias.

http://66.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m75ogxN3Bo1qajugo.jpg

trump is doing well with hispanics. it's that nationally he's doing no worse than the last two republican nominees.

Right, and I'm saying I don't think that's accurate. The Florida poll was one, other national polls are putting Hillary at 80+ and Trump in the 10-12 range with Johnson at 5-6. That's much worse than Republicans ever do.

Trump is not doing well with Hispanics.

trump is not doing well with hispanics. he's not doing unusually badly. he's not going to lose texas.

romney lost hispanics by 44. most recent national poll i can find (http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/08/11/fox-news-latino-poll-clinton-holds-46-point-lead-over-trump-among-hispanics/) has trump losing them by 46. unless this gets significantly worse (and it's difficult, verging on on mathematically impossible,to see how it could), hillary cannot win states like tx this time unless she increases hispanic turnout by an implausibly large amount.

*worse = worse for trump

In a text message exchange with Yahoo on Tuesday, Miller described his appearance on the show as “one big media bias offender segment.” He also suggested the campaign’s focus on the story was one reason the campaign didn’t send any new “BIAS OFFENDER” emails in recent days. He promised the next one will come this evening.

“There was so much attention to the issue between myself and Mr. Trump that I found a press release to be anticlimactic,” Miller wrote. “I would expect to see a new one today. Believe me.”

Miller ended his message with a smiley face emoji.

I mean, it is plausible that Hispanic turnout will be higher than usual this year since one of the candidates is running on anti-Hispanic racism. Not saying that will be enough to flip Texas, mind you!

Not enough to flip Texas but enough to turn Florida blue despite the closeness of our state polls.

back of the envelope: if vote share by race stays the same, and turnout for every group except hispanics stays the same (which is probably not true but assume they are for an order of magnitude estimate), to flip tx solely by increasing hispanic turnout, you'd need an extra ~1.5m hispanic voters to turn out.

last time 1.7m (44% or 3.8m) turned out, so we're talking about roughly doubling the number of hispanic voters who turn out, and raising the rate at which hispanic voters turn out to well above white voters.

yeah florida is another matter xp