I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Re: Crowd size and anecdote, this was Peggy Noonan the day before the 2012 Election:

"Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday. It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold..."

"There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same."

"Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us."

"And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline... Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues."

Noonan is such a moron

remember how passionate ppl were about romney lol

the Passion of Mittens

My favorite line: "I think he’s stealing in 'like a thief with good tools,' in Walker Percy’s old words."

Xxxxxpost on that poll that has MN as "lean" Democratic, ah yes every four years MN is the "swing state" that hasn't gone Republican since 72 and a whopping 3 times since 1932 including going for Mondale

It'll take a while, but it's worth reading this thread from 4 years back, thinking of Noonan et al:

The Choice of a New Denigration: the US Election Day 2012 Thread

Amazing how nearly every GOP doof quoted therein learned nothing from it, based on this year.

Meanwhile:

Donald J. Trump’s support among white men, the linchpin of his presidential campaign, is showing surprising signs of weakness that could foreclose his only remaining path to victory in November.

If not reversed, the trend could materialize into one of the most unanticipated developments of the 2016 presidential campaign: That Hillary Clinton, the first woman at the head of a major party ticket and a divisive figure unpopular with many men, ends up narrowing the gender gap that has been a constant of American presidential elections for decades.

Surveys of voters nationwide and in battleground states conducted over the last two weeks showed that Mr. Trump was even with or below where Mitt Romney, the Republican Party nominee four years ago, was with white men when he won that demographic by an overwhelming 27 percentage points.

For Mr. Trump, who has staked much of his legitimacy as a candidate on his strength in the polls, the numbers are a dose of cold, dangerous math. If he does not perform any better than Mr. Romney did with white men, he will almost certainly be unable to rally the millions of disaffected white voters he says will propel him to the White House.

Hillary is running ads during the Olympics - I have never seen a Democratic campaign ad in Texas (back to '92) so this is a weird new world.

I guess they could just be national spots that happen to be showing up around here, but it's still new.

I've seen them too so they are probably nationwide since there is zero reason to target California.

from that thread

this djp comment has come to mind many times over the last 4 years

Lol

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!
― Mordy, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 10:21 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Gathering from Twitter Trump actually made apologies in his speech today. Also gathering most think he's reading something Kellyanne Conway wrote for him.

I think he'd say anything to shore up his teetering support here in North Carolina.

Unfortunately, diapers are expensive so I haven't been doing micro donations this go-round.

Actually I did give a little money to Feingold's campaign after disparaging his terrible fundraising email and the feeling bad about it.

Every time Morbs pissed me off on these threads, I gave Obama money, usually $19.

The last email I got from the Obama campaign said I had donated $441 dollars

― banana hammock unitard (DJP), Wednesday, 7 November 2012

I've often thought of this too, and I hope they spent every crucial cent of it in Massachusetts!

I applaud your support of Feingold, DJP.

Watched A Face in the Crowd today for the first time in years. Absolutely required viewing this year. Patricia Neal: "How does it feel saying whatever comes into your head and being able to sway people?"

Kathryn Jean Lopez ‏@kathrynlopez
if this is where we are, prepare for some tough back to fundamentals years. we had to get back to them anyway.

― Mordy, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 04:21 (3 years ago) Permalink

Mordy otm about crowd sizes.

Last couple of Election Day 2012 threads are pretty ace imho, with unskewed polls guy, Karl Rove's meltdown, that crazy ranting Romney supporter's youtube, the whole deal. I am also really fond of the Robotman thread title and the exchange that prompted it, such an "only on ILX" kinda moment, <3 you all.

nro watchers: what has k-lo been upto this election? i'm guessing totally checked out and insane rambling about jesus

i scrolled down her twitter past fifty religious tweets and some photos of clouds and realized it was over the course of only a couple days, i can't speak to what she was tweeting about last week.

nro watchers: what has k-lo been upto this election? i'm guessing totally checked out and insane rambling about jesus

― Mordy, Thursday, August 18, 2016 10:26 PM (

NRO has been consistently un-crazy this season whenever Andrew McCarthy isn't posting.

like dr. grant tossing away the raptor claw

nro watchers: what has k-lo been upto this election? i'm guessing totally checked out and insane rambling about jesus

― Mordy, Thursday, August 18, 2016 10:26 PM (21 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

she tweets about the pope a lot. she was at that big catholic meeting during the khizr khan stuff, but someone had forgotten to remove her from https://twitter.com/NRO/lists/nr-convention-tweets, so it would be people screaming blue murder all day and then her literally hundreds of tweeted iphone pictures of the pope from the back of a hockey stadium overnight.

Sam Stein Verified account
‏@samsteinhp

There is a certain richness in seeing some folks cheer Trump’s teleprompter-aided step forward after years of mocking Obama for using one

https://s3.amazonaws.com/stranger-things/deeeeeez-nutz.png

topical?

the "pivot" begins

Liked this response to those tweets earlier: https://twitter.com/beautypill/status/766407400869990401

re. Merkel in the USA : my wife has a bunch of bitter clingin' fb friends who've been posting foxxnews stories about Merkel all summer. so trump knows his audience. fwiw these fb friends (all women) each say they're sitting out the election because both choices disgust them.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-trump-clinton-who-is-winning-227160

Oy vey, you guys...up 4?

I'm pretty sure there's a dozen "don't freak out over one poll" articles around.

bad news iago - i don't think yr boy trump is gonna pull this one out :(

Hey look, Trump made an ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mKzYPt0Bu4

The tone isn't actually that different from those fake ads from the Triumph bit

Disappointed he didn't narrate it himself. Also disappointed that Bruce McGill was willing to take the gig (that sounds like him, anyway).

Eventually the ads will just be alternating pictures of the candidates with the narrator saying "Trump good. Hillary bad" for the full 30 seconds

@costareports
SCOOP: A close friend of Manafort tells me he has resigned

Presumably he's off to Syria to work for Assad or something

the "pivot" begins
― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, August 19, 2016

Caught just a tiny bit of his grovelling, mea culpa speech last night. Once you take the circus out of him, he's just so boring...which is probably what they need, even though I think it's way too late.

Manafort officially resigns

Lewandowski back by this time next week?

time for roger ailes to shine

Have there been any other major party nominees who've gone through campaign managers like underwear (I feel it's safe to assume that Trump has only changed his underwear three times in the past year)?

he doesn't change underwear, underwear changes him

https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/766638363038322689

On Monday night, I heard from a source that Manafort is now under federal investigation. This is why he likely resigned, not the shake-up.

Not 100% sure I trust a writer named "Andrea Chalupa" but there you go.

He sounds tired and kinda drunk in that "i regret it" clip

They finally flushed his pills.