I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Lol Pena "Nitro" Nieto

That Trump's Razor thing is absolutely a thing. I've been pressing that angle anytime anyone erroneously suggests that Trump is cannier than he seem or that he must have a hidden strategy that we don't understand or that he when he says this one thing he actually means this other thing. It's been mind-boggling to see the Chauncey Gardiner effect playing out in real life. He really is this dumb, folks.

Yeah I don't see what either of them got out of this. I can't imagine it'll help Trump's numbers amongst Hispanics and if anything I think it'll dampen enthusiasm among his supporters who may be starting to realize that Trump has basically no conviction on anything.

Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support

re: Nitro, tbh Trump meeting with the American Gladiators would actually make more sense. Surprised he hasn't done so, or brought them in en masse to replace his campaign leadership. These are the strongest people, the best people, just incredible. The theme song would also make a good replacement for all the classic rock songs he's using against the artists' wishes. Make America Gladiate Again.

Yeah I don't see what either of them got out of this

Trump got Rich Lowry and Charles Krauthammer to say he looks presidential.

538's got him at 27% now, Christ

still worse odds than Romney had at this point. it's a reversion to the mean, but a few faceplant debates and another scandal and we'll be back at 80/20

Yeah, ebb and flow. And there's no reason not to think he still has that same hard ceiling of support--he might be getting back people who bailed during that horrible stretch after the conventions, but has he actually brought any voters over?

there's no reason not to think he still has that same hard ceiling of support--he might be getting back people who bailed during that horrible stretch after the conventions, but has he actually brought any voters over?

This is the crucial factor. Point me to one blue state Donald fucking Trump is gonna flip.

some rumblings that Wisconsin could be in play

wisconsin is not in play

lol his own dudes are bailing after that speech

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-hispanic-leaders-arizona-immigration-227615

I doubt WI is in play, he got destroyed by Cruz here.

I truly can't see why these polls should be fluctuating at all when they're reflecting the least ambiguous man of our time. Like, one week when Trump behaves 20% less loud, stupid and racist than usual is all it takes to make his numbers go up a little? That doesn't make any sense to me, even taking into account ambiguous feelings toward Clinton. Who are these people with such a nuanced, subtle take on his assholery that they can wobble back and forth so much? "Hmm, today Trump as 1.2% less of a fuckhead, that's a step in the right direction, sign me up!"

It's like the quitting guy cited above: Trump has been a dick for days, weeks, months, years, decades. What did you expect?

Lol. I'm guessing he went to Mexico, felt he got disrespected, and lashed out. What a great commander in chief he won't be.

Iirc correctly, the polls didn't really have Trump going up as much as Clinton going down. Which makes sense, after the AP (bullshit) story, and also perhaps people feeling safe to vote third party?

i follow this stuff and i don't know what AP story you're talking about. it's not that.

the AP story about Clinton Foundation and "access."

Tactically I think Clinton may be in a bit of a bind with regard to the third-party candidates, who are probably drawing more of her support away than Trump is. She can't really go directly after them, without it giving them a credibility/visibility boost and also reinforcing battle lines that make it less likely that those voters will cross back over. But she kind of needs a PAC or some surrogates to really start hitting them. Johnson in particular should be easy to parry: the ideas he's campaigning for is noxious and unpopular, which is why they have to hide behind those cutesy charts that 'prove' half the country is fiscally conservative and socially liberal or whatever. OTOH, if he's actually drawing more away from Trump, in states that matter, then she should just let him do his thing.

Who are these people with such a nuanced, subtle take on his assholery that they can wobble back and forth so much?

It's not that. It's that most of your fellow voters won't spend any time thinking about this election until a week before. The stuff you think "everybody knows"? Hardly anybody knows. Most people don't watch CNN or read the newspaper. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

Also think there's truth to the idea that Trump's lame-brained and insulting appeals "to black voters" were actually appeals to white voters - "hey, I'm not a racist!" - and that for a lot of Generic Republican voters that is literally enough for them to go "hey, he's not a racist."

Who are these people with such a nuanced, subtle take on his assholery that they can wobble back and forth so much?

i'd be staggered any it's mostly due to people changing their mind, especially in this rase. but more generally, movements are mostly down to polling response rate (which translates into ballot box turnout, so is not just a polling concern):

http://andrewgelman.com/2016/08/24/31010/

here the tightening is likely a mixture of (expected) convention bounce response rate fade for clinton, and trump supporter's response rate going up simply because he's in the news a lot, and not calling grieving parents terrorists. that's usually good for a few points of response, even if you don't actually do anything substantial to change the race.

i'd be staggered if it's mostly

I still don't get it. It's like this one time I went into a chain record store (old! sad!) to peruse the cutout cassettes (old! sad!) and there was someone in front me buying a copy of Santana's "Supernatural." This was maybe a year or so after it was released, well after it had already sold untold millions, and that fucking song was still ubiquitous. So what was it that brought that person, so many months later, to say, fuck it, now is the time to buy Santana's "Supernatural" for $17? Like, Clinton flux I get, but how can there be anyone who hasn't made up their mind on Trump, other than people who literally don't know he exists?

LOL this is you all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oBx7Jg4m-o

It's not that. It's that most of your fellow voters won't spend any time thinking about this election until a week before. The stuff you think "everybody knows"? Hardly anybody knows. Most people don't watch CNN or read the newspaper. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing.

that's true, although "news" (or at least news-y impressions of candidates) gets around to people who don't read the News -- via social media, relatives, workplace chatter.... of course that "news" is often quite filtered and biased.

besides, "news" these days is what you read on your curated social media experience

I can't tell if Iago wants Trump to win or just thinks Trump is going to win

xxp

i think he wants trump to win? not sure if sincerely pro-trump or just an accelerationist tho

"[Trump] is a guy who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth that now he's choking on because his foot's in his mouth—with the spoon”

-Biden

"Trump is a guy with a spoon in his mouth and his head up his ass, and his foot's in his mouth with the spoon in the ass"

JoshInChi, I don't think it's individual PEOPLE changing their minds. I think different things work for different people.

For some, the Curiel stuff was a bridge too far. For others, "second amendment people," for still others, the Khan shenanigans.

At the same time, there are cohorts whom Clinton lost at "what difference does it make," others she lost from the Comey statement, still others she lost with leaked emails.

Different individuals have different thresholds; I am not sure a lot of people are wobbling back and forth.

the good news is that 3rd party support is taking more away from Hillary than Trump and it always seems to wane by November. plus I suspect that Clinton is gonna start to bury Trump once some more time ticks off the clock; I think he's gonna get absolutely destroyed starting at the first debate but that may be my fantasy

yeah iago do you actually want trump or are you one of those that feels like the sooner we destroy neolib society a serious progressive movement will rise out of the ashes? or just trolling for kicks or what?

So what was it that brought that person, so many months later, to say, fuck it, now is the time to buy Santana's "Supernatural" for $17?

I think you just find a lot of stuff incomprehensible that I would call unexceptional

in 2000 people didn't mind paying $18 to hear "Maria Maria" and dumping the rest in Sam's Used CD Warehouse

I think he's gonna get absolutely destroyed starting at the first debate

My observation has been that all a candidate needs to do at a debate is conform to what his or her supporters expect of them. They do have some slight effect on voters who were undecided, but such voters have a hard time achieving clarity, so the effect is seldom decisive.

I think the best case scenario for Clinton is that Trump chooses to take some random crazy positions he hasn't previously adopted and finally convinces some undecided her direction, but even that would only move the numbers a few percent. I don't expect Hillary will make any bold moves or big errors. I think Trump's best case scenario is that he acts sane enough to calm some of his more jittery supporters, so they don't jump ship to a third party or stay home on election day. Either way, debates can only change a close election.

I stopped paying attention to Iago here:

HIRALLY CLIMPS FOR PRESIDETN • US presidential elections part VII

mostly because I was attempting to verify any piece of what he was talking about and found a whole bunch of shit attributable to Pence and nothing attributable to Kaine

After protesting for months the idea that Trump actually wants to be president, it just dawned on me that I'm totally wrong. He actually does want to be president, but in the same naïve and nuance-free way that a small child wants to be a fireman or an astronaut or a fairy princess but would never actually want to go through the motions of being or doing that thing in the long run. Being president just means wearing a suit and saying loud funny words in front of a podium.

otm he's not smart enough to use a run for president as some scam, he is basicall ya 4yo mentally

I'm finally starting to come around to this opinion.

I should clarify that I don't know if and maybe don't even think that Trump is actually as much stupid as he is probably incredibly stunted. His situation allowed him to basically stop developing as a person at a relatively young age and still be successful.

I think he wants to win the election, but doesn't want to be president. Though it probably has not occurred to him that they are not the same thing.

threadban Iago pls

go find a Pink Floyd thread to smear your shit all over

The story that appeared about a week before trump picked pence rings very true, where trump's son supposedly contacted a potential veep and more or less said that whoever was trump's veep would be the acting president, managing both foreign policy and the domestic legislative agenda, while trump's only job would be 'making america great'. I expect this is how trump envisions his administration, with someone else doing all the boring bits while he sits around dreaming up tremendous stuff, issuing orders to flunkeys, and cutting deals over the phone.

He'll be like America's mascot, pumpin' up the crowd, flippin' the bird at the opposing team. It'll be sensational.

Trump as the Onion's version of Joe Biden I could almost live with, if he had picked someone sane/not evil to do the actual work.

running a search for Iago's posts and looking over his (impressively consistent?) drop-ins on the election threads over the past few months is a good way to inoculate against the pungency of his trolling. He's got his kazoo and he comes along and drones on it every couple of weeks or so because HILLARY IS GOING TO LOSE AND HE IS GOING TO LAUGH.

lol yeah I must have been tuning them out cos I did the same thing and didn't realize this was a running dumbshit schtick of his