I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

Both things are bad and both things either had or could hypothetically wind up having more voting support than expected, what's facile about it?

Also "WTF happened with Brexit" is a hanging question for polls and those that love them.

Brexit was a straight referendum, decided solely by the ballots cast by voters. This is not that.

"Both things are bad and both things either had or could hypothetically wind up having more voting support than expected"

this is true of every presidential election.

literally the only thing this election and brexit have in common in terms of how the race is polling, the events that have driven it, and what could plausibly happen over the next couple of months, is: there are two sides, and one is currently more likely to win than the other.

of course brexit was box office and the nowcast sells clicks so...

I was being ironical, it is indeed a facile comparison

What do you (as distinct from the punter cloud) think could plausibly happen over the next couple of months, caek?

farage will sail in a boat up the chesapeake bay

when faced with its latest worst-ever threat thread, the american left talks about such wild things as moving to canada, not killing the people with which it disagrees

... FIXED

i would still like the list of Obama '12 states that are voting Trump this year

there'll be a couple, but more?

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 4m4 minutes ago
I need to justify my continued existence and hedge against the outside possibility of looking stupid again.

― the last famous person you were surprised to discover was actually (man alive), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 2:58 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

well, yeah...

there'll be a couple, but more?

I see no reason to think there'll be even one. The reason the race is competitive is that a relatively small national move in support towards Trump would move some states into his column, and that might happen -- but it hasn't happened yet. I guess Florida is the most likely. But I think there's at least a 50-50 chance Clinton wins every state Obama won in 2012. (Or more, if things move in the other direction.)

he can justify his continued existence by going back to baseball

xp

Did Obama lose Indiana in 2012? Cause Trump is for sure winning there

Yep.

Obama got crushed by Romney in Indiana, losing by 10 points. Not a ton of polls there but most have Trump doing about as well as Romney.

Trump can have Florida (and Ohio) and still lose. Heck, you can throw in North Carolina and Nevada while we're at it.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#stateorder

This is not to say one should not be worried. Personally I'll pretty much be sticking my fingers in my ears and saying "LALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU" about all election news until November. That said, whenever I do think about this, I'm going to cling to that 538 "winding path" graphic in the hopes that it is at least focusing on the metric that matters.

Is it starting to sink in? Do you still think pneumonia is all she has, no other health problems? Have you seen the polls since she was recorded "fainting"? Why is #DNCleak trending for 2 hours this morning...they usually disappear that shit. Is it because we are in fait accompli territory but you can't see it yet? Or is this just sexism on my part?

Oh my god, fuck off.

Why do niggas push pounds and powder?
Why did Bush knock down the towers?
Why you around them cowards?
Why Aaliyah have to take that flight?
Why my nigga D ain't pull out his Ferrari?
Why he take that bike?
Why they gotta open your package and read your mail?
Why they stop letting niggas get degrees in jail?
Why you gotta do 85% of your time?
And why do niggas lie in 85% of they rhymes?
Why a nigga always want what he can't have?
Why I can't come through in the pecan Jag?
Why did crack have to hit so hard?
Even though it's almost over, why niggas can't get no jobs?
Why they come up with the witness protection?
Why they let the Terminator win the election?
Come on, pay attention!
Why I sell in the stores what you could sell in the streets?
Why I say the hottest shit but be sellin' the least?

hope dmac was able to wake up and get himself to work this morning

Man Trump's speeches have really gotten strange...

xp

lol man alive

Why is the sky blue? Why is water wet? Why did #DNCLeak cover up the emails while Hillary fainted? Or is this just sexism on my part?

Fucking pneumonia, how does it work?

Why are you smirking up your face, making obnoxious facial scenes
Like I supposed to be scared (supposed to be scared) WHY?

Democrats have a secret plan to have Hillary get into the White House and then die.

RIP democrats.

so did Trump cancel his Dr. Oz appearance? what was with Conway suddenly saying the candidates should have "privacy"? (after repeatedly badgering Clinton about her health?) did something happen?

besides their usual disorganized nonsense?

he's taping Oz but will not be releasing his previous health stuff on the show as they'd claimed, but instead will doctor up some bullshit stuff to release later.

Feel like the Oz thing is overshadowing the Newsweek story about how incredibly fucked Trumps financial entanglements are

The eichenwald piece is great but it does go on. I love how every major deal with the Trumps is also tied to corruption and fraud by the foreign developers, though.

i see these dr oz headlines and i've never even heard of dr oz until this week and like what the fuck is happening jfc

this
http://americannewsx.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/OZ_ANX.png

I love how every major deal with the Trumps is also tied to corruption and fraud by the foreign developers, though

Of course it is. I mean, if your project was legit, wouldn't you take it to just about anyone on earth other than Donald Trump?

to add to this kafkaesque scenario, here's a creative writing piece the la times published today:

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-0914-lopez-trump-longbeach-20160913-snap-story.html

i pinch myself when i've stayed in la too long

wait am i really posting? i don't even know anymore

hello? is there anybody out there?

Dr. Oz is one of the pseudo-quacks who charmed their way into Oprah's coterie. Probably best known as a scaremonger disseminating misleading info re: cyanide levels in apple juice. If you have any stay-at-home parents or grandparents, I guarantee they know who he is.

My mom is 88 and knows a lot about Dr. Oz

I wasn't really impressed with Eichenwald's piece.. I guess I was hoping he had secretive info about Russians financing TrumpCo but its basically a ton of shitty licensing deals with shady developers and alot of hyperventilating about conflicts of interest..

btw the NY Times said on the front page today that DT "stretched the truth" on Clinton not having a childcare plan, which is as close as they ever come to calling any candidate a liar, so you can all decrease yr heart medicine dosage.

they've definitely called Trump a liar fwiw

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/24/opinion/mr-trumps-applause-lies.html?_r=0

i'm talking news stories, not op pieces

Justin Peters mentioned this example: Mr. Trump twice denigrated America’s generals; suggested he would fire the country’s current military leadership; and insinuated—vaguely, unverifiably and without evidence—that the intelligence officials who recently gave him a classified briefing about threats to the United States had said that the president had flouted their advice.”

so trump released medical records.. of his exam last week by that fucking lunatic doctor bornstein

During the hour-long sit-down with Oz airing Thursday, the show said in a press release that Trump discussed his physical performed last week by physician Dr. Harold Bornstein of Lenox Hill Hospital in New York. Bornstein penned Trump's only medical note last December, declaring his test results "astonishingly excellent."

that is a long sentence for such a short reply

adverbs

Bornstein penned Trump's only medical note last December, declaring only that "This guy fucks."

I wonder how many doctors Trump cycled through until he found one that would just write whatever he told him to write. In addition to the whole prescribing him methamphetamines thing, obv.

I would accept that, I think

xp

David Plouffe:

In essence, Plouffe stated flatly that he thinks Clinton is already very close to winning, because (in his view) Virginia, Colorado, and Pennsylvania are already out of reach for Trump. As Plouffe puts it, this would require Trump to pull off a miraculous string of victories in many battlegrounds — including Ohio and Florida, but also in many others — to win. As Plouffe notes, given all of this, Trump would need historically high Republican turnout and historically low Democratic turnout — and to do better than he currently is among moderates — to win. “I don’t see any evidence of that happening,” Plouffe said. “This comes down to, where is Trump going to pick up ground?”

Then Plouffe said:

“The biggest challenge she’s gonna have is turnout. I think they’ll get there. I really do. But if you look at swing voters — there’s a few more than there are normally — Trump’s not offering them much. He’s got to pull a bunch of people who voted for Obama twice. I think there’s going to be very few of those people around the country.”

Asked what Clinton should be doing to energize African Americans and Latinos, Plouffe expanded on the above point this way:

“Polling is very flawed. Obviously the campaign doesn’t have polling. It’s got massive data samples that then you model. When you allocate out 100 percent of the people who are going to vote, what matters is, how’s the whole electorate going to be allocated. Traditionally Democrats break a little bit later. We certainly saw that in our race. So if you allocate the entire African American and Latino and younger vote, as it’s likely to perform, she’s in better shape. She’s got to make a passionate case, and I think she will.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/09/14/is-clinton-in-trouble-the-architect-of-the-obama-coalition-explains-why-its-still-hers-to-lose/?utm_term=.657d60dc7c96