I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

even if the Newsweek story ultimately had no smoking gun we all know that if it was Clinton the media would spent fucking weeks on this

― frogbs, Wednesday, September 14, 2016 2:01 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

And meanwhile in this alternate universe, Trump sees an almost imperceptible dip in his numbers after beheading all of his children onstage and doing a puppet show with their skulls.

I know it's been pointed out in various ways already, but Trump has proven to be a pretty good barometer of a segment of the republican voting population who could give one iota of a fuck about the republican platform. Because they're hateful nihilists who are basically only interested in spectacle and loud noises.

this country fucking deserves him.
yeah i totally give up even stressing about it anymore. Trump is the hero we deserve

'Barometer' is not quite what I mean. 'Radioactive marker' maybe.

Geiger counter.

he did some interview with Pence (CNN?) where he straight up said it was okay for Pence to support the Iraq war since everyone makes mistakes, just that it wasn't okay for Hillary. it's straight up hypocrisy and the media's willingness to let it slide is maddening. practically every time he brings up Clinton he straight up projects his own weaknesses onto her. he's saying "Hillary doesn't have a plan for maternity leave and she never will!" even though her plan has been on her website for months. it's just so strange. I've been convinced for weeks that Hillary would mop the floor with him in a debate, but now I realize, how the hell do you beat this guy?

but Trump has proven to be a pretty good barometer of a segment of the republican voting population who could give one iota of a fuck about the republican platform.

yea it's been funny to see all the people mocking Bernie nonstop cuz "Who's gonna pay for all that??" are now supporting a candidate who wants to spend billions and billions on dumb projects with no benefit. they truly don't give a shit about any of it.

it's even more mind boggling since Trump has a history of dicking over basically everyone who ever trusted in him. he is a proven grifter and scam artist who has somehow been given a pass to say he's donating "tens of millions" to charity despite absolutely zero evidence to back him up. he won't even release the audit letter that he claims is preventing him from showing his returns.

I guess if you're a deeply unhappy person who takes comfort in expressing rage, it makes sense to vote for the candidate whose presidency is most likely to stoke that rage.

how the hell do you beat this guy?

by revealing him as a weak, petulant man-baby

probably yeah. that Atlantic article about it was really good and I'm sure her debate team is doing the best they can. she'll probably do well I'm just afraid she's gonna start coughing and the MSM talks about nothing but that for the rest of the week

the handwringing on this thread is outta control

"If you're elected president, how would you solve X??"

"X wouldn't be an issue anymore if I win, believe me"

"Okay, moving on..."

that's not how the debates are structured

Trump has never been in a one-on-one debate where he has to speak for large chunks of time, he's going to get destroyed

so that will be what sinks him?

Just among voters who don't actively wish to see the extinction of the human race within their lifetime.

no one thing is going to "sink" Trump

his chances for winning are already super-shitty, the debates will make them shittier

the hands i wring are the best hands, amazing hands

yeah he has no ideas and if she riles him up he's gonna explode

like I get that everyone wants to somehow be reassured that there is absolutely positively no way he can win - but that is not a thing that can happen prior to election day. Until votes are cast there will always be some small chance, some bizarre confluence of circumstances, that could produce a Trump victory, which is apparently panic-inducing.

xxp

pretty much any reasonable projection i've seen gives him about a 1 in 3 shot at winning. that's kind of scary tbh

I have almost no faith that the debates are going to expose him in a way that significantly affects his support, not after that Commander in Chief forum, which unequivocally demonstrated his complete inability to form and express a coherent thought about ANYTHING, and yet it was pretty much spun (and received) as a draw.

the 1 in 3 chance is tot down to

1) terror attacks / other disasters btwn now and Nov 8

2) Clinton's fucking unforced errors / transparent phoniness

not after that Commander in Chief forum

nobody watched this. the debates will have a bigger audience. they won't be a nail-in-the-coffin thing (they never are) but they won't be good for him.

pretty much any reasonable projection i've seen gives him about a 1 in 3 shot at winning. that's kind of scary tbh

lol waht this isn't accurate at all given the electoral map and state polls

as noted upthread - what states is he gonna flip from Obama in '12 (hint: none)

1) terror attacks / other disasters btwn now and Nov 8

can't think of any of these that would break in trump's favour rather than hilary's

^^^

did Trump get a bump after Orlando?

yeah he has no ideas and if she riles him up he's gonna explode

― a (waterface), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 3:39 PM (eleven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tmi

something absolutely catastrophic has to happen to Hillary for Trump to win - he would have to be viewed as a bitter-but-necessary-pill by a big chunk of the population that currently absolutely hates him and I can't see anything outside of some completely unpredictable apocalyptic event that would make that happen. Dem turnout would have to crater, GOP turnout would have to be maximized. What scenario could conceivably produce that result? Clinton dying I guess? But even then...

i'd amend it to "attacks that are either mishandled, endorsed or planned by Clinton"

well, thanks for cheering me up at least

did Trump get a bump after Orlando?

no but I think a lot of that is because he handled it like a giant idiot

for Trump to win I think a lot of 3rd party support has to break his way and the "shy Trump voter" thing has to turn out to be a real phenomenon. my gut is telling me people voting 3rd party will side with Hillary because most people are terrified of Trump winning but then again I have no fucking idea what is making so many people want to vote for Trump in the first place so who knows

i don't think HRC has especially suffered from unforced errors unless you believe media-stoked "gaffes" like getting sick are included in the category of unforced errors

the media seems convinced that "basket of deplorables" is an unforced error which is strange because it's worked brilliantly for her

no but I think a lot of that is because he handled it like a giant idiot

right, and he did it instantly! There's no reason to think an even bigger crisis would be to his advantage, he would react in the same predictably crass/stupid/inappropriate self-aggrandizing and exploitative way.

I have no fucking idea what is making so many people want to vote for Trump in the first place

we have several thousand posts that might be helpful in this respect

pretty much any reasonable projection i've seen gives him about a 1 in 3 shot at winning. that's kind of scary tbh

lol waht this isn't accurate at all given the electoral map and state polls

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, September 14, 2016 3:45 PM (fourteen minutes ago)

well........sure, i mean if you think you can do a better job than 538 or RCP then maybe make your own projection system? kind of feel like they've accounted for the "electoral map" and the "state polls" but i haven't read the fine print

1 in 3 feels about right for me. it's a 2 horse race and there's 8 weeks to go.

trump's chances go down every day nothing changes though.

/I have no fucking idea what is making so many people want to vote for Trump in the first place/

we have several thousand posts that might be helpful in this respect

538 currently giving Trump 30% is something that's happened just in the last couple of days! For the last few weeks he was mostly in the 10%-20% range, which is more realistic imo.

Trump does not have a 1 in 3 shot. The electoral math is awful for any Republican, much less one whose appeal primarily rests with white nationalists and angry people who don't know they're white nationalists.

He's gotta win Florida AND Pennsylvania AND Ohio and and and to win

the odds of *all* of the necessary states breaking for him are v v low if he can't even bother to field GOTV operations

if the initial "basket" remark was not a tactical error, why did she semi-back off it the next day? Or is this the Vulcan Chess Meme she has inherited from Obama?

right, and he did it instantly! There's no reason to think an even bigger crisis would be to his advantage, he would react in the same predictably crass/stupid/inappropriate self-aggrandizing and exploitative way.

Bannon and Conway seem to have at least partially muzzled him - for example he didn't tweet out anything awful when Hillary fainted

though tbf I'm starting to think there's something behind the campaign's sudden shift from "all health records should be public!" to "the candidates should have some privacy!"

xxp that's true, but if swing states break, they break in the same direction on average.

those three states aren't like three independent coin tosses, where the chance of all three comping up heads is 1/8

they are more like three tosses of the same unfair coin.

but yeah, needing to win any of them (i.e. clinton) is a better situation to be in than needing to win all of them!!

I'm no fan of Chuck Todd-ian political chessboard action, but that deplorable line turned out to be a bonanza for Clinton. Pence was on the Hill uester4getting clobbweed by colleagues.

can you really not figure that out Morbz. she backed off of it because she doesn't want to double-down on offending voters whose votes she might be able to get. which is reasonable from her standpoint. it's not a tactical error in that it didn't actually hurt her significantly - GOP ops didn't successfully capitalize on it, nobody whose votes might have been swung actually appear to have cared, it's not really an indefensible statement etc.

xxp

She didn't back off.