I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

Trump supporters are literally buying "I'M DEPLORABLE" T-shirts so yeah this is a big win for Hillary

Yeah my only (afaik) Trump supporter friend just posted a FB meme with Leonardo DiCaprio toasting "Here's to all us deplorables."

I wasn't really impressed with Eichenwald's piece.. I guess I was hoping he had secretive info about Russians financing TrumpCo but its basically a ton of shitty licensing deals with shady developers and alot of hyperventilating about conflicts of interest..

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries),

you're right -- he should've deleted it

@dick_nixon
You like to think Powell isn't mean because he's black and he speaks well and he served a long time. My God, what do you think it takes?

yeah it's really something symptomatic of people who spend way way too much time in online echo chambers and have no clue how their "ironic" racism is seen to the world at large. like none of these people believe they actually have racist tendencies and are unable to speak in anything other than memes. so they give the "deplorable" thing a ton of attention which leads low-information voters who are otherwise sensible down the path where they learn that many Trump supporters are violent assholes and literal Nazis. what's better I think the Clinton campaign was at least somewhat aware that this was gonna happen? I dunno but I've never seen so many people willingly own themselves like this

the question i ask myself as i hit fp for the 100th time xp

i expect you do not understand the nixon twitter.

or history, or politics, possibly how to work a zipper...

is Morbz spitting dope rhymes now

the fact that colin powell uses "dicking" to refer to casual sexual intercourse makes me like him a lot

nobody watched this.

it matters less who watches and how they responded as to how the media spin it. the bush/gore debates were wins for gore in overnight polls, but once the press corps had spun its silvery story, gore had "sighed over and over" or told several new "lies" - stories that sharpened perceptions of gore as a condescending, untrustworthy elitist

538 gives Trump over 35% in his polls-only, that's a high for him (outside of that RNC week)

I know electoral math and all that but this is seriously terrifying me right now, since the Clinton health thing hasn't even really hit the polls yet

like now Trump's up 5 in the Ohio? what the fuck

the same way they have a Republican governor

you realize 35% is still comparatively low odds right

(why am I holding your hand like this)

YOU REMEMBER THAT GEORGE W. BUSH, A MAN-IDIOT, BEAT AL GORE FOR THE PRESIDENCY RIGHT

actually he didn't

what do you mean "comparatively low odds". 35% is 35%.

he won a bullshit court case, he didn't win an election

xp

35% is 35%.

which is zero in a zero/sum game like a national election

ie 26 points away from victory

you think the electorate's gonna shift 26 points in 8 weeks?

er 16 sorry

Ohio goes to Trump now on the 538 map, and Clinton still has 297 electoral votes. No reason to panic just yet. Except over the fact that racism isn't immediately disqualifying to such a large part of the electorate, and that the media is rubbish, etc. Oh, and that famed neo-con Clinton soon will be president. Other than that, no need to panic.

actually he didn't

huh, funny, I seem to remember George W Bush running the country for 8 years

xxp 538's election simulator doesn't work like that though, it simulates the election 10,000 times (or whatever) and determined that Trump wins 3,580 of those. The popular vote numbers are something like 46/43. I'm not sure if Trump can make that up but it's within the margin of error

i expect you do not understand the nixon twitter.

― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:13 PM (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

or history, or politics, possibly how to work a zipper...

― The Hon. J. Piedmont Mumblethunder (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:14 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you're really fuckin relentlessly stupid and nasty on this thread. it's weird because you're civil elsewhere. you're more two-faced than any politician and your word is just as worthless. get your shit together.

huh, funny, I seem to remember George W Bush running the country for 8 years
― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 4:29 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

erm – wasn't he basically installed by a bunch of judges?

they stole it fair and square.

backatcha, map

Bush did not win the popular vote, even in the final "approved" count

he was installed by the court, in a ruling that was so narrow and meretricious that it's an embarrassment

2000 popular vote results:

Gore: 50,999,897
Bush: 50,456,002

ugh just reading this makes livid with rage (similar to the feeling I get reading this "Black Flag" book about Zarqawi/Iraq/ISIS)

a decision that isn't even binding

Bush won, via an incredibly tight race, probably some dirty tricks and a sympathetic court

note: won, not lost

yeah the 2000 fiasco never loses its power to make me furious after all these years

recall how utterly clownish and unsuited for the job Bush was, in contrast to Gore's experience and general decency

recall Bush winning despite millions having decided Gore wiped the floor with him in the debates

the fact that colin powell uses "dicking" to refer to casual sexual intercourse makes me like him a lot

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, September 14, 2016 5:17 PM (fifty-one minutes ago)

hehehe i thought the same thing

you realize 35% is still comparatively low odds right

Comparatively? I don't know--depends what you're comparing it to. The chance of flipping two heads in a row is 25%. I'm sure you'd be happier if Trump's chance of winning (if you accept Silver's forecast) weren't 10% better than the chance of flipping two consecutive heads.

"To Whom My Concern"

"To Whom My Concern" "To Whom My Concern" "To Whom My Concern" "To Whom My Concern" "To Whom My Concern"

PEC still shows 90% Clinton

Dubya is not Trump, i will not tolerate this comparison

Xp

dubya had a lot of things going for him in 2000 tbh, number 1 being (and i'm going off general perception as opposed to any reality) an "innate likability" and "down-to-earth persona" and that election was straight up slobs vs snobs. al gore made some huge errors to contribute to all that.

Yeah, W was oafish but not scary* during the 2000 election.

*Mind you, the goal posts have moved in these 16 subsequent years.

Dubya had a unified party apparatus, experience in government, a sophisticated campaign operation, and a family dynasty behind him. He had a fairly traditional right-wing GOP ideology. He went out of his way to appear inclusive and non-racist. He was an idiot manchild with no business being president, but he and his campaign were totally unlike Trump's in a lot of fundamental ways.

Hank Hill didn't trust Dubya's limp handshake!

http://i.imgur.com/5bE7PrT.gif

The menacing discipline of the Bush campaign was what I remember most about fall '00. They made no mistakes.

sure what i'm saying is that 'people actually watching the debate' do not decide who 'wins' it, with all the implications for the how the home stretch is framed that's implied therein

massive differences with bush's campaign obviously but it's worth remembering how totally unserious he seemed as a candidate at the time

(and then how the media connived to gin him up as a contender)

it was a weird confluence of things in that election. i remember some kind of perverse nostalgia for poppy bush, despite him being such a mediocre president. i remember this sort of exhaustion about the clinton era despite him having good approval numbers, so much so that everyone expected gore to ride the wave of contentment into the white house. but i think yeah bush running a mistake free campaign and in that way exceeding low expectations while gore just made some tactical errors that seemed and perhaps were minor but with the closeness of the election probably cost him the electoral win.