I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

We finally got our Hillary sign a couple of weeks ago and stuck it in the front yard. Yesterday I came home through the back door and grabbed the mail from the front. There was an addressed (but not stamped) envelope stuck under the welcome mat.. Inside was a handwritten note:

"Thank you for having both Hillary and Tammy yard signs. We need to win both. If you know someone that wants signs, please call me."

It was signed with his number and the same name in the return address space on the envelope. Huh, I thought, Tammy? We only have one yard sign. So I stuck my head back out front and lo and behold, we now have a Tammy Duckworth sign, too. That's cool, very enterprising (as long as they don't keep multiplying), and very savvy initiative. Of course anyone here that supports Clinton supports Duckworth as well, but beyond that, I really had to respect the writer's reminder that it is about more than just the presidential race.

I ordered a Hillary bumper sticker, along with a donation yesterday. I've never done either of these things. But I admit I'm kinda scared to even put the bumper sticker on.

Tammy Duckworth 2024 imo

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/67/45/99/6745998c2f6b424433a9f2a56768e450.jpg

the hillary bumper sticker wont be nearly as unfortunate as the ben carson 2016 bumper sticker I saw the other day

Clinton has a new book out, Stronger Together. 2,912 copies sold in the first week. Feel the passion.

On a clear you can see the Elizabeth Islands off in the distance, and on a clearer day you can see all of the houses on the cape across Buzzard's Bay and even Martha's Vineyard way out behind the others. Trump's body, of course, would be a few light years away by now.

xxp: I'm not scared that I'll become a laughingstock, I'm scared that someone will use it to target and attack my family.

pretty sure that "OHHHH THE ABUSIVE BERNIEBROS!" line emanated from the campaign.

― the last famous person you were surprised to discover was actually (man alive), Thursday, September 15, 2016 11:28 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

uh yeah p sure it emanated from my fucking facebook feed

http://www.salon.com/2016/06/10/another_neocon_endorses_clinton_calling_her_2016s_real_conservative_and_the_candidate_of_the_status_quo/

“Clinton is the candidate of the status quo, something that conservatives, by definition, are supposed to uphold,” Kirchick writes.

“Hillary Clinton is the one person standing between America and the abyss,” he says, seeing her as a mealymouthed centrist candidate with “better conservative credentials” than the alternatives.

Obama would never get that description from a conservative.

― the last famous person you were surprised to discover was actually (man alive),

Because he's a black man.

exactly

perhaps, but also because his foreign policy actually is to the left of Hillary's

Plus you don't have to say “Hillary Clinton is the one person standing between America and the abyss” under normal circumstances

if by an "abyss" Kagan means "the space between Paul Wolfowitz and Kissinger's ears,", then sure yeah

according to the nowcast Hillary is just barely holding on to enough states to win, time to panic ????????

rmde

sure go for it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6-g_P1VFJg

here's what's going to happen - between now and (at least) the debates polls are going to fluctuate a bit (esp nat'l polls) and the media/pundits will all be in a tizzy about what a close horse race this is, omg what a nailbiter how can it possibly be this close this is UNPRECEDENTED what are we going to do better write some more panicky clickbait thinkpieces!!!! All while the basic electoral math doesn't move that much. In fact, many of these panicky thinkpieces, such as this one will even admit as much, as he does here towards the end:

It's important to note that Trump's momentum in this race has brought him back into contention — not catapulted him into the lead. The electoral map still heavily favors Clinton unless Trump can find a way to make Pennsylvania competitive, a task that has so far proved elusive. Trump still must win states like Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, which, even with his recent surge factored in, remain no better than toss-ups today.

Those are the hard realities Trump faces. Clinton still has — and will continue to have — more paths to the presidency.

Then the debates will happen, there will be some slight movement I suspect back towards Hillary, and then she wins the election by a couple points.

xxp

and then the real fun starts

i suspect that was supposed to be comforting, but even if all of that plays out exactly as you envision, that still sounds excruciating

if by fun you mean the gov't does basically nothing then yes

xp

I'm not trying to comfort or scare anybody, just trying to maintain perspective

hordes of armed crazies gunning down schoolteachers, ilxors and other liberal types

the south rises again

the movie green room except the green room is america

here's what's going to happen - between now and (at least) the debates polls are going to fluctuate a bit (esp nat'l polls) and the media/pundits will all be in a tizzy about what a close horse race this is, omg what a nailbiter how can it possibly be this close this is UNPRECEDENTED what are we going to do better write some more panicky clickbait thinkpieces!!!! All while the basic electoral math doesn't move that much

i.e. yep

mmm pistachio cake, I always make time to pick up some when I'm up visiting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSsUoxlSADk

the issue is that it's not so difficult to win a bunch of "toss-ups" if the polls shift another 2-3 points. I hate that bad news rarely affects Trump much but it seems to really, really affect Hillary. I'm afraid the media narrative for the 1st debate is already written - Trump will appear to "hold his own" and maybe even look "presidential", and the 3rd as we all know is held by FOX and moderated by someone who doesn't think its his job to fact check. meanwhile there are gonna be more email leaks that reveal nothing but will be treated as A Very Big Deal. maybe she'll cough into the microphone or something and people will freak out. this is so dumb.

and yeah the rational part of me knows that Clinton is totally winning but my rational side ain't coming out today

that said the unconscious part of my brain is telling me, "Trump is going to get exposed like never before at the first debate and enthusiasm for him is gonna drop" so there's that

historically, debates don't actually move electoral math much. they do move the media narrative.

guys remember when the media/Andrew Sullivan freaked out after Obama-Mitt #1

vividly, unfortunately

isnt early voting already happening or is that in a couple weeks?

varies from state to state

in some states it's started already iirc

But the fact that she is endorsable for them, under any circumstances, still says something about her politics.

idk maybe leftists should stop worrying so much about getting neocon cooties from people who have voted Republican

This editorial posits regional shifts that may alter future races:

If you step back and look at the regional picture we can see something pretty striking about the electoral map. Back during the primaries, there was a pretty aggressive discussion of how Trump would put the industrial and post-industrial Midwest in play. For a long time that didn't seem to be the case. And I think it's still not the case in just the way people were suggesting. But there is something happening.

As I mentioned yesterday, the big structural change in the electoral map since the Bush years is that Democrats have opened a major beach head in the upper coastal South while becoming more competitive in more traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida. That continues to be the case. We have new polls out in Virginia and North Carolina today. Virginia is Clinton +4.9 and North Carolina is Clinton +1.1. Those aren't huge leads, certainly not in North Carolina. But relative to the country as a whole that remains dramatically different from 16 or 12 years ago. Virginia does seem out of Trump's reach, which remains a huge factor in the race.

What's notable here is that the Democratic advantage looks more durable in Virginia and North Carolina, states they weren't even able to compete in in the Bush years, than it does in Ohio and Florida, where they've fought it out in every election since 2000. That in itself is a very big deal.

But consider some other states. We now have quite a few polls in Georgia and Trump's lead is only 3.2 percentage points. We have a reasonable amount of data in Arizona too. And that's in the Toss Up category (Trump +.3) Even in Texas, Trump's advantage is only +6.

To put this all in perspective Trump's margin in Iowa (+6.6) is substantially larger than his margin in Georgia (+3.2). Iowa is a classic swing state but one that usually goes blue. The only Republican win since 1988 was in 2004. And then it was extremely close.

What you can see is that regardless of the winner in this election, the contours of the map itself look significantly different. Broadly speaking the Democrats bridgehead in the upper coastal South seems to be expanding into areas where populations are younger and less white - also arguably more educated and economically dynamic. That brings in Georgia, Arizona and at least blunts GOP leads in states like Texas.

After reading the discussion of 2000 upthread, I will repeat that my dream is for Florida to become irrelevant. It can still be close, still be uncertain, still saying LOOK AT ME!

But if Electoral College majorities are increasingly clinched by the results of Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or North Carolina, it will be sweet and delicious for the nation to say to the Nation's Wang, "That's okay, Florida. Take your time. Sort it out. We'll be over here reveling in the fact that we don't fucking need you."

it is kind of a mystery to me how/why Florida politics is such a bizarrely dysfunctional beast - it seems like neither party has reliable majorities or decent candidates or coordinated strategies, everybody's just kinda bumbling along in a stew of corruption and incompetence.

lol have you ever been to florida?

everyone in america should have to live in florida for six months and then we can have a referendum to go back to 49

But the fact that she is endorsable for them, under any circumstances, still says something about her politics.

idk maybe leftists should stop worrying so much about getting neocon cooties from people who have voted Republican

― esempiu (crüt), Thursday, September 15, 2016 1:59 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Less worried about cooties, more worried we might invade Iran.

if there was ever a state that should be split into two it's FL

where would that split be...?

I haven't been to Florida - I have in-laws that moved there recently so it's probably inevitable that I will visit at some point but I'm not exactly looking forward to it for personal reasons. If we went anywhere close to Alfred or Disneyworld I might look more favorably on the prospect...

Speaking at a Thursday meeting of the Economic Club of New York, Donald Trump made some ambitious promises, vowing to grow the economy by at least 3.5 percent per year, create a staggering 25 million jobs, cut taxes, and slash regulations while preserving entitlement programs.

no ponies tho? fuck trump he should aim higher.

Alfred can certainly answer that question better than I, but probably Dade/ Broward/ Palm Beach/ Indian River counties could peel off and form a small state and just let the meth-addled deplorables have the rest

i have to go there a lot for work - mostly Jax, Tampa, fucking Daytona, sometimes Orlando - and it is terrible.

actually, Orlando ime is a little better than the others.