I've had people say it's a hardening, actually ~ US presidential election 2016 part 9/11 never forget

isnt early voting already happening or is that in a couple weeks?

varies from state to state

in some states it's started already iirc

But the fact that she is endorsable for them, under any circumstances, still says something about her politics.

idk maybe leftists should stop worrying so much about getting neocon cooties from people who have voted Republican

This editorial posits regional shifts that may alter future races:

If you step back and look at the regional picture we can see something pretty striking about the electoral map. Back during the primaries, there was a pretty aggressive discussion of how Trump would put the industrial and post-industrial Midwest in play. For a long time that didn't seem to be the case. And I think it's still not the case in just the way people were suggesting. But there is something happening.

As I mentioned yesterday, the big structural change in the electoral map since the Bush years is that Democrats have opened a major beach head in the upper coastal South while becoming more competitive in more traditional swing states like Ohio and Florida. That continues to be the case. We have new polls out in Virginia and North Carolina today. Virginia is Clinton +4.9 and North Carolina is Clinton +1.1. Those aren't huge leads, certainly not in North Carolina. But relative to the country as a whole that remains dramatically different from 16 or 12 years ago. Virginia does seem out of Trump's reach, which remains a huge factor in the race.

What's notable here is that the Democratic advantage looks more durable in Virginia and North Carolina, states they weren't even able to compete in in the Bush years, than it does in Ohio and Florida, where they've fought it out in every election since 2000. That in itself is a very big deal.

But consider some other states. We now have quite a few polls in Georgia and Trump's lead is only 3.2 percentage points. We have a reasonable amount of data in Arizona too. And that's in the Toss Up category (Trump +.3) Even in Texas, Trump's advantage is only +6.

To put this all in perspective Trump's margin in Iowa (+6.6) is substantially larger than his margin in Georgia (+3.2). Iowa is a classic swing state but one that usually goes blue. The only Republican win since 1988 was in 2004. And then it was extremely close.

What you can see is that regardless of the winner in this election, the contours of the map itself look significantly different. Broadly speaking the Democrats bridgehead in the upper coastal South seems to be expanding into areas where populations are younger and less white - also arguably more educated and economically dynamic. That brings in Georgia, Arizona and at least blunts GOP leads in states like Texas.

After reading the discussion of 2000 upthread, I will repeat that my dream is for Florida to become irrelevant. It can still be close, still be uncertain, still saying LOOK AT ME!

But if Electoral College majorities are increasingly clinched by the results of Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or North Carolina, it will be sweet and delicious for the nation to say to the Nation's Wang, "That's okay, Florida. Take your time. Sort it out. We'll be over here reveling in the fact that we don't fucking need you."

it is kind of a mystery to me how/why Florida politics is such a bizarrely dysfunctional beast - it seems like neither party has reliable majorities or decent candidates or coordinated strategies, everybody's just kinda bumbling along in a stew of corruption and incompetence.

lol have you ever been to florida?

everyone in america should have to live in florida for six months and then we can have a referendum to go back to 49

But the fact that she is endorsable for them, under any circumstances, still says something about her politics.

idk maybe leftists should stop worrying so much about getting neocon cooties from people who have voted Republican

― esempiu (crüt), Thursday, September 15, 2016 1:59 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Less worried about cooties, more worried we might invade Iran.

if there was ever a state that should be split into two it's FL

where would that split be...?

I haven't been to Florida - I have in-laws that moved there recently so it's probably inevitable that I will visit at some point but I'm not exactly looking forward to it for personal reasons. If we went anywhere close to Alfred or Disneyworld I might look more favorably on the prospect...

Speaking at a Thursday meeting of the Economic Club of New York, Donald Trump made some ambitious promises, vowing to grow the economy by at least 3.5 percent per year, create a staggering 25 million jobs, cut taxes, and slash regulations while preserving entitlement programs.

no ponies tho? fuck trump he should aim higher.

Alfred can certainly answer that question better than I, but probably Dade/ Broward/ Palm Beach/ Indian River counties could peel off and form a small state and just let the meth-addled deplorables have the rest

i have to go there a lot for work - mostly Jax, Tampa, fucking Daytona, sometimes Orlando - and it is terrible.

actually, Orlando ime is a little better than the others.

Less worried about cooties, more about a prez who welcomes the endorsements of ppl who actually slaughtered tens of thousands of people extralegally.

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a47517/hillary-clinton-john-negroponte-endorsement/

lol have you ever been to florida?

Yeah it's the fire ants innit

daytona has gotten a million times more depressing over the past 20 years

yeah it's really rough. you almost feel bad for the residents in the area and then you see 400000 ABORTION STOPS A BEATING HEART signs and twice that many confederate flags and it's just like well guys that's on you

you can see painkillers & meth hollowing out beachside hotels and restaurants like termites in real time

i assume all those pro-life billboards are owned by the same awful person & that the only way to get rid of them is to rent the space from them

you can see painkillers & meth hollowing out beachside hotels and restaurants like termites in real time

oh man so very very otm

RIP my childhood summers

Lib Florida consists of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm, Orange, and Pinellas counties, and Gainesville and Tallahassee.

Florida is a super majority GOP state with a shambles of a state Dem party.

i have to go there a lot for work - mostly Jax, Tampa, fucking Daytona, sometimes Orlando - and it is terrible.

actually, Orlando ime is a little better than the others.

― serge thoroughgoods (will), Thursday, September 15, 2016 3:35 PM

truth.

Jax is mostly a cog in the southern baptist convention thanks to the Homerdome

Orlando was the only city in North to central Florida we could eat Ethiopian food, and Park Ave CDs & Rock N Roll Heaven made it a monthly drive

Hello -- the whey-faced fraud Patrick Murphy is running for Senate.

few things...

1) Silver and 538 are by far the most bullish on Trump. Every other major forecasting source that expresses the probabilities as a percent is more favorable to Hillary. NYT Upshot has her odds at 75% of winning, Drew Linzer (DailyKOS) has her at 72%, and PredictWise at 70% (those are still scary high odds, but Nate's group is the outlier of the bunch).

2) polls move back and forth. this is a thing that happens. as mentioned upthread, Romney surged a bit after that first debate and people were talking about his momentum well beyond the second one, but it really was a temporary bump that evaporated. the health thing is a short-term problem for the polls, but it's a bit early to say it's going to cripple her long-term. the latest Trump Foundation controversy isn't anywhere near as high profile as Phlegmgazi, but it only really started to get picked up yesterday after the NY Attorney General initiated a probe. It needs time to settle.

3) we probably won't see the blowout defeat we want even if Hillary does win, I think the "she will get 400 electoral votes" boasting from earlier in the year is pretty much not going to happen. but I wouldn't be surprised if things settle back her way.

4) Jill Stein isn't yet on all 50 states' ballots. Her 3% National may be a bit skewed if she never makes it onto Nevada, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Indiana, Georgia, and North Carolina (three of those she can be written in on, but write-ins will never match voting totals of someone who actually appears on the ballot). that does impact Trump/Clinton's numbers in National polls, which is why FUCK 'EM.

5) undecided voters are still around at a higher rate than usual and ergo swings in either direction remain likely.

so yeah, take the momentum seriously but don't be jumping off of bridges yet.

xxpost Park Ave CDs is still doing fairly well. I went in more often prior to me going mostly-digital.

it's not on Park Ave anymore tho

i'm in jax RIGHT NOW :-/

yeah i was prob being a little too harsh re Orlando. i still say Tampa (proper) sucks badly, but i think some folks like St Pete and there are some dece beaches over there i guess

"momentum" is an overused and misused word in politics. The fact that polls trend higher or lower at a certain time does not meant there is "momentum."

where would that split be...?

I-4 corridor

I grew up in Pinellas county and if that's a liberal part of FL...

Guys, let's get Whiney and all go to Disney World.

I went when i was ten; can't imagine it's anything like i remember it.
they had captain eo! grandpa wouldn't wait.

Drink around the world!

Probably went 4 or 5x in the '80s before I held season passes from '95-'02. Saw so many of the changes in real time. I now lurk in WDW history boards

as long as we're going down this path: the amusement park i grew up with was Opryland and i basically lived there in the late 80's and it's gone forever now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_N7fewyUKis

http://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/money/real-estate/2014/06/20/history-of-opryland-theme-park/11049509/

that video is doing my head in right now

guys i don't know wtf this has to do with the election but it's an improvement to this thread imo

I went to Opryland!

forks did you ever go to Twitty City? I remember there being a $500 airbrushed jeans jacket w/rhinestones & Conway's face on the back

oh shit brah, twitty shitty! yeah for sure!

loooooooooooo
http://i.imgur.com/Hl8jI2o.jpg
ooooooooooool

I had season passes to Opryland for years. I was friends with a kid whose father played with the Opry so we'd hang out in the park all day and then hang out backstage or around the theater or run around where the employees were. I would say i rode the flume zoom 3.2 million times.

can't wait till someone tells Trump what "fed" stands for

xpost - You never really see his name brought up in list of music moguls, but man Roy Acuff made a gazillion dollars. Just that land for Opryland property went for probably a gazillion dollars when it got turned into Mansionland, let alone Acuff/Rose and all the other stuff he owned.

For sure! I think I saw him at the opry once. I know I saw Minnie.

I don't understand that interest rate thing - Trump thinks low interest rates are bad for the economy?